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There's a good chance Cliff Lee will come back to earth today in Toronto

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Posts: 446

Jimmag

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 7516

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:36 AM ET #76

Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

No. This line closed +175 at the Las Vegas Hilton. All indications were that the Tigers were going to roll. I wonder if the pitchers on the Tigers staff are permitted to make eye contact with Justin Verlander, or if they have to bow their heads to him when they walk past each other?

They can only make eye contact once they get up off their knees from bowing

GiLmo574

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 21804

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:36 AM ET #77

My play is Blue Jays TT over & the OVER.

I'm @ Harrah's casino in Lake Tahoe and the OVER just moved to 8. I should went to the damn counter instead of drooling @ 7.5 ....

kansas24

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 7697

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:36 AM ET #78

OUT OF ALL THE GAMES YOU PICK THIS ONE

I WOULD NOT BET AGAINST CLIFF-NOT ME

crowndaking

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 4255

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:38 AM ET #79

This is the ONLY IL game that makes any sense to play today and for that matter IL is so repugnant from a capping perspective that I have sat idle on the sidelines for days as I have passed on the Pit/Wash series. Lee is Mr. Terrific but the intangibles get him today namely 1) it's a day game; and 2) coming off only 4 days rest (mentioned supra) oh and not an intangible but in substance the Jays bats v. Cliff make the difference...I have an appointment at the ticket window later

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:40 AM ET #80

TOR starting line-up against Lee:

1. Aaron Hill, .333 career (5-15)
2. Eric Thames (new call up, batting .319 in 20 games)
3. Jose Bautista, .200 career (1-5)
4. Adam Lind, .111 career (1-9)
5. Juan Rivera, .286 career (6-21)
6. Edwin Encarnacion, .000 career (0-5)
7. JP Arenciaba, no career at-bats
8. Rajai Davis, .500 career (4-8)
9. John McDonald, .375 career (3-8)

Food for thought, four guys batting above .280 career against Lee, that's pretty good for one squad I'd have to imagine.

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:43 AM ET #81

My "local" who runs through an online site just put up TOR TT at 3.5, OVER is +110 and UNDER is -140

Oh that positive juice looks so, so sweet

GiLmo574

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 21804

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:45 AM ET #82

Wow, Kap. I'd lock that sweet, sweet positive juice in.

*handshake*

Revo23

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2009

Posts: 1164

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:46 AM ET #83

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

TOR starting line-up against Lee:

1. Aaron Hill, .333 career (5-15)
2. Eric Thames (new call up, batting .319 in 20 games)
3. Jose Bautista, .200 career (1-5)
4. Adam Lind, .111 career (1-9)
5. Juan Rivera, .286 career (6-21)
6. Edwin Encarnacion, .000 career (0-5)
7. JP Arenciaba, no career at-bats
8. Rajai Davis, .500 career (4-8)
9. John McDonald, .375 career (3-8)

Food for thought, four guys batting above .280 career against Lee, that's pretty good for one squad I'd have to imagine.

Yes sir. I mentioned that in my post. The 1, 5 and 9 hole. Not to mention JB, Lind and Edwin. Would really like to see Kane's mojo chart on the pitchers! Could further solidify a play here...

crazy1464

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2005

Posts: 6783

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:47 AM ET #84

thanks mr.bator hope this hits!you have been great!

Billystick13

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 3883

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:48 AM ET #85

When did the legalize sports betting in Lake Tahoe gilmo?

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:48 AM ET #86

That 8-9-1 stretch could be tough for Lee today, and we really don't have any historical evidence for Eric Thames but .319 in 20 games for a newly called up rookie is nothing to shake a stick at. Bautista is always scary for opposing pitchers.

more4us

All-Star

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 13319

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:50 AM ET #87

GiLmo574

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 21804

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:56 AM ET #88

Shit, IDK, Billystick.

1980 something....

Revo23

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2009

Posts: 1164

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 11:58 AM ET #89

Yea shit, mojo doesn't line up, but it hasn't stopped me before.

Just relentless ball today Jays. Get up on 'em and just keep tackin' them on...

BOL to all of those with the balls to bet against Cliff Lee and the Phils.

doliver517

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2009

Posts: 3083

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:03 PM ET #90

I've been waiting for Lee's next start as I was going to fade him regardless....Now with you on it I feel much better. I am someone who hates going against a positive streak, but his arm has to feel like it will fall off right about now. I see this as a perfect time to put my normal everyday rules to the side and ride my gut feeling. My gut led me to play Colon yesterday and I only filled it with a 1.5lb new york strip last night. So there's definatly more gut for this play...I also played over 3 tt at -120 for the Jays a I feel they will get atleast 3 by the 5th. Lets get it today Bator. Thanks for sharingand best of luck wth your futures plays Anytime you feel like letting us know your other plays on the day fele free to let em all out there

GL today guys and be safe the rest of the weekend

kRaZeEpLaYa

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 350

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:06 PM ET #91

Great analysis...im gonna play it safe and take the over...maybe a small play on jays...still deciding

EDDIEW

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 4106

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:08 PM ET #92

bator...looking forward to those other 4 or 5

KOTBO

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 1567

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:16 PM ET #93

This reminds me of the play during the NFL season Bator was comparing the 3 blowouts that Green Bay had and were 14 point favorites the next week only to lose outright if I'm not mistaken.

GL.............

ttcasucci

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 360

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:17 PM ET #94

food for thought... nobody has hit him lately...got my jays tt u3.5 @ -135... good luck all!

ttcasucci

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 360

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:20 PM ET #95

Quote Originally Posted by KOTBO:

This reminds me of the play during the NFL season Bator was comparing the 3 blowouts that Green Bay had and were 14 point favorites the next week only to lose outright if I'm not mistaken.

GL.............

this is mlb and this reminds me of a guy name Orel Hershisher

BetCrimes1984

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2004

Posts: 45613

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:30 PM ET #96

here's another couple of stats for today (I'm sure MrB won't mind me interjecting)...

Since Utley returned to the lineup and immediately helped the Phils batter the Reds pitching for 28 runs in 4 games, there's been a strong whiff of futility come over this offense, specifically in the 1st 5 innings of games.
Discounting their series vs the Marlins (cause that team was so competitively futile at the time, stats rendered against them don't mean a lot), this is how Philly has fared over the 1st 5 inns of their last 25 games (going backwards, bolded = road games):

2, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3, 1, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2, 2, 3, 3, 0, 1, 2, 3, 2, 0, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1 & 2 runs

While their home average (1.62 runs) is higher than away (1.35 runs), they basically have to thank meeting the woeful Cubs (underlined) for that fact.

Contrast the above with their performance from the 6th inning onwards in these same games:

3, 5, 2, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 10, 0, 4, 2, 2, 5, 4, 0, 2, 1, 1, 4, 1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 4, 4 & 4 runs

Not once in the 1st 5 innings have they scored more than 3 runs, yet have done no fewer than 9 times in less innings over the backend of games.

Fat Elvis

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 266

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:36 PM ET #97

MrBator....As a die-hard Phillies fan that has done pretty well betting against them in select spots I think this is a perfect spot for the Blue Jays. If you saw yesterday's game the Blue Jays batters were complaining about the strike zone all day. This culminated in the Jon Rauch blow-up and John Farrell getting ejected. After getting ejected, Farrell angrily demostrated at home plate that Halladay was getting pitches off the plate all day and the Jays pitchers were not getting the same respect. Something tells me that Cliff Lee is going to get a tight strike zone and this will hurt him as he is all about pinpoint control on the corners.
I also agree with you on his pitch counts. As a Phillies fan I hate how Manuel rides his Big Three starters. The season is a marathon and not a sprint and he does not realize it's okay to save them some innings and pitches here and there.

UMF

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 1285

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 12:36 PM ET #98

These threads remind me of the lamb being led to the slaughter.

This guy posts a hidden winner somewhere in another guys post with the Marlins last night. Then comes back to make his own thread visible for all to see (to the number of almost 5k in views). Now he will lead the lamb to the slaughter. Don't get me wrong guy if you consistently made your own threads for all to see I wouldn't be making this post. But you hide plays in others threads and so you found a winner last night. Now you start a thread. Interesting seems to be a long pattern with you. I hope you hit because if you don't the excuse to the thousands of followers will be ( well I posted a +160 dog last night you should have tailed me then and you would still be up). Deception at its finest.