Astros -105 vs Cubs (Intertops) -- Yes, the Cubs have their top starter on the mound. But they are playing terrible, and Houston has red hot Bud Norris on the mound. Cubs have lost 6 in a row, are 6-11 on the road, and Houston has the far superior bullpen here.
Giants +101 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- This one's simply a matter of getting the significantly better starting pitcher as an underdog. Gians are playing better, and their road record is as good as Milwaukee's home record so I am not concerned with a significant home field advantage here.
Cardinals -1.5 runs +125 vs Padres (Intertops) -- Before even looking at the pitching, the Cardinals average more than 2 runs per game better than San Diego. Obviously playing half their games at Petco Park handicaps the Padre offense, but the Pads only score 3.79 rpg in road games, while the Cardinals score 6.29 at home. So for this not to be a good bet, the Padres would have to have a SIGNIFICANT pitching advantage to overcome their disadvantage on offense, defense [they lead the NL in errors] and Cardinal home field edge [Pads 4-10 on the road], as well as te +125 line which means winning this bet 45% of the time is all that it takes to break even. Does San Diego have a significant pitching advantage? Their bullpen is better, I'll grant that. But Garcia has an ERA over a vull run lower, and a WHIP over a tenth of a point lower, than Richard, despite the fact that Richard has the advantage of playing half his games at Petco. So the Cardinals can add a starting pitching advantage to their 2-run offensive advantage and home field advantage. That's enough to make this a no-brainer.
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Adding:
Astros -105 vs Cubs (Intertops) -- Yes, the Cubs have their top starter on the mound. But they are playing terrible, and Houston has red hot Bud Norris on the mound. Cubs have lost 6 in a row, are 6-11 on the road, and Houston has the far superior bullpen here.
Giants +101 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- This one's simply a matter of getting the significantly better starting pitcher as an underdog. Gians are playing better, and their road record is as good as Milwaukee's home record so I am not concerned with a significant home field advantage here.
Cardinals -1.5 runs +125 vs Padres (Intertops) -- Before even looking at the pitching, the Cardinals average more than 2 runs per game better than San Diego. Obviously playing half their games at Petco Park handicaps the Padre offense, but the Pads only score 3.79 rpg in road games, while the Cardinals score 6.29 at home. So for this not to be a good bet, the Padres would have to have a SIGNIFICANT pitching advantage to overcome their disadvantage on offense, defense [they lead the NL in errors] and Cardinal home field edge [Pads 4-10 on the road], as well as te +125 line which means winning this bet 45% of the time is all that it takes to break even. Does San Diego have a significant pitching advantage? Their bullpen is better, I'll grant that. But Garcia has an ERA over a vull run lower, and a WHIP over a tenth of a point lower, than Richard, despite the fact that Richard has the advantage of playing half his games at Petco. So the Cardinals can add a starting pitching advantage to their 2-run offensive advantage and home field advantage. That's enough to make this a no-brainer.
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