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Some Baseball Thoughts/Monday writeups/ And a Thank you

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Dear covers members,
 
For those of you who don't know me I would like to share a little background.  I have been a full time proffessional gambler for 3.5 years.  I began as a poker player and moved into NFL football (pretty good) college football (average) Baseball (best sport) NBA(putrid) CBB (awful).  The best sport for ANY bettor to make money on is baseball.  There are numerous games on a daily basis and the markets do not get corrected untill around the all star break...  There is profit to be made.
 
Here are a few tips to betting baseball successfully over the course of a lifetime...
 
1.) Shop for the best lines possible... Matchbook seems to be the best place to bet bases.  Bid early and aggressively... You don't have to get the best price, just get a good price...
2.) Have a bankroll.. My suggestion is 30 units.. That is what has worked for me in the past...
3.) set goals- how many units do you want to make a week, a month, a year... If you achieve your goals then stop... Reread that, if you need to continue betting after you make your goals then you have not set them high enough... If your goal is to make a 100 units in a season, then stop if you reach it.. Almost all of you have real jobs.. If even betting a 100 a game 100 units would be $10,000 a nice chunk of EXTRA change for almost anyone on these boards.
4.) Be disciplined and flat bet... If your unit is 100; risk on every wager... Many people may dispute this but I RISKED the same ammount on each wager and it worked well for me
5.) only bet dogs... Reread.... I don't want to get into why to only bet on the underdogs but they should be atleast +110 to even get interested.  Some of my favorites plays have been huge underdogs +250/+275 doggies
6.) Do not play juice reducers -1.5 runlines... God bless you if you can beat totals..
7.) Use a trusted sight to monitor money flow on each game... Money flow will not tell you the winner, it is a GUIDE to use... My guide was SI... It is a great tool if you understand how to use it...
8.) don't bet more then you can afford to lose... If you don't have extra money to throw around then do not bet...
9.) Deal with stress the best you can.. It is impossible to eliminate and I had trouble even dealing with it in the end...
 
If I think of any others I will share, but this should be a good guideline to get anyone started...
 
Please do not reply unitll I have finished this entire letter...
 
 
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Posted: #3
hmm agree with most of your points - but i HAVE to have best price.  and gl this season.
 
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Have a good season ME.....

I should be looking in from time to time....




 
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Posted: #5

Good luck this season ME.  This is a thread that I definitely check every single day. I share your same philosophies when it comes to the bases..

 
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Posted: #6
Monday writeup:
 
Arizona (webb) @ Cincy (Harang)
 
Why would you want to get involved in a game like this?  Where is the value?  On oppening day, almost every team is going to be throwing there ace... In this matchup it is no different..Both pitchers domminate the others lineup... No value= no play
 
Milwaukee (sheets) @ Chicago (zambrano)
 
Backing the cubs over the long term is a losing proposition...  Why would tommorrow be any different... If you are interested in the Brew crew then wait, because this line should hit -140 or higher closer to game time....D.Lee and Derosa hit Sheets pretty well, but the rest of the lineup has not had enough AB's or have had little to no success against sheets... Zambrano is a great thrower but has little idea how to pitch... He is a mental case and it is very hard to know which Carlos Zambrano will be on the mound on any given day... He has a lifetime ERA vs the Brew crew of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.30.... Fielder, Council, kendall, and weeks have all had past success against Zambrano... If you are a cubs backer, it will not help you that John Kruck predicted the Cubs to win the world series this year... This game should be closer to a pk or Zambrano -110... At +125  or above I would suggest pulling the trigger on the Brew crew....
 
Washington (chico) @ Philadelphia (Myers)
 
The nationals will be a long term money maker... They get little to know respect from the bookmakers... Who is Brett Myers?  Why In the hell does he deserve to lay -210 to anyone?  He has a carrer 4.34 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP... Chico is no peach, but there is a reason the Nationals are getting a 2-1 return... The nationals have a young hardworking ball club, with a stud third basemen (zimmerman)... They have a very good manager (name escapes me) who has his troops ready for battle on a daily basis... I can't think of many reasons not to play the nationals tommorrow... The nats are worthy of a wager...
 
San Francisco (zito) vs Los Angels (Penny)
 
I don't like to be in the business of fading Brad Penny... He is a true warrior on the hill and battles tooth and nail almost every outing... After signing the big contract Zito pitched like dog shit for the Giants... The LA lineup has had tons of past success against Zito knocking him around the park... Penny has been hit by some of the giants as well... Need a better price to get involved with the Giants... I can't recomend a play on them...
 
N.Y. ( Santana) @ Florida (Hendrickson)
 
Is laying -220 on the road ever a good idea?  How inflated is this line?  The Santana trade was the biggest deal of the entire off seson.. We know this line is inflated... If the line is wrong bet it untill it corrects... Will the Mets win? Probably... Not in the business of picking winners but instead spotting value.. Thre is value with the Marlins...
 
Colorado (Francis) @ Saint Louis (wainwright)
 
This game is pretty easy... Games that come out as a pk -110 both ways have no interest to me... No play
 
Pittsburgh (snell) @ Atlanta (Glavine)
 
Don't really understand this line on the surface... I thought the Braves would open a little higher at something like -165 or so... Is this line begging for Braves money? The Pirate lineup has had some past success against Glavine...  What kind of pitcher is I. Snell?  Very decent, but if I remember correctly he ran out of gas as the season went on...  Lean toward Pitt at +150 or better...
 
Houston (Oswalt) @ S.D. (Peavy)
 
We all know that Jake Peavy is an elite pitcher in baseball... The guy has absolutely filthy stuff... Roy Oswalt isn't exactly a slouch...  For some reason I have a gut feeling to stay away... Oswalt at +150 just looks to good to be true... After looking at some past results the astros tend to swing and miss a lot when facing peavy.. There lineup has had little to no success against Peavy, with the best being carlos lee .267... Recomend staying away from this dog...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #7
Good stuff escort.  Thanks for the info.
 
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American League :

Kansas city (Meche) @ Detroit (verlander)

The Tigers have had a ton of well deserved hype in the offseason... They are absolutely loaded and if they can fix some of the bullpen issues they will be very very difficult to beat... However, 2-1 underdogs make me salivate and for icing on the cake, I have my absolute favorite underdog pitcher taking the mound... G. Meche was absoultely outstanding last year for my bankroll... If you are a value bettor, it is an absolute no brainer to play the Royals tommorrow... Of course Verlander could throw a no hitter and I may look like a fool... Bottom line is there is value with the Royals...

Tor (Halladay) vs N.Y.(wang)

Is there a bettor game on the board?  Oppening day in the bronx and the Yankees are overpriced as usuall... Let me get this right... I can get R. Halladay as a +150 dog..I should take it every time and laugh all the way to the  bank... For the purpose of this writeup I will share a few stats...  Lifetime vs the Yankees Halladay has a 2.99Era and a WHIP of 1.18... He has started 24 games and has a 10-4 record including 2 CG... Halladay when healthy is an elite pitcher.... Wang has a 4.20ERA lifetime vs the Jays with a whip of 1.29... If wang is gettting the ball down and recording ground ball outs he is deadily... There is no way he should be a -150 favorite over Halladay... This line is absolutely rediculous... Strong recomendation toward the Blue Jays...

White Sox (Buehrle) vs Cleveland (Sabathia)

How quickly things change in sports... The sox go from world series champs to the laughing stock of the AL central... They were absolutely decimated with injuries last year and the bullpen made fans want to throw up... Buehrle had a carrer year last year including a no hitter... However, the Indians absolutely smoke him.. He has a lifetime 4.61 ERA vs the Tribe and there current lineup hits him very well... On the other hand Sabathia owns the sox.. He has a carrer 14-3 record vs the sox with a 3.48ERA a whip of 1.23 and sox hitters have managed a 2.25 batting average.... Gut feeling, is this game get ugly real fast (sorry dreamer42)... I don't know what price would get me interested in the white sox, certainely not a measley +165 or so...

Texas (Millwood) @ Seattle (Bedard)

How could one player screw up an orginazition for so long... Will Texas ever find pitching?  Arguably the best pitcher of last year vs a very suspect Kevin Millwood... Seattle is going to have a very good year but being on the left coast we won't hear much about them untill late August early September... Seattle is primed to make a run in the AL west... There will be oppurtunities to bet Texas this year, but this is not one of them... Pass

LA (Weaver) @ Minesota (Hernandez)

I like the Angels team very much... How do the Twins through Levan Hernandez on opening day?  I really don't know much about this Twins ball club.. Is the perception that the Twins will be horrible without Santana and Hunter?  They have a scrappy little ball club and some good pop in the middle of the lineup... The Twins will surprise this year and should be a pretty decent money maker for there backers... Don't know what Hernandez has left in the tank if anything.. If you know my style at all, you know the Twins would make my card...

DISCLAMIER- I am not betting any of these games as I am retired but if I were my card would look something like this:

N.L.

Milwaukee +135

Washington +200

Florida  200+ (who knows how high this will go)

Pittsburgh +150

A.L.

Kansas City +200

Toronto +150

Minesota +150

 

 

 
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Posted: #9
Yeh nice info. Thanks.
 
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Posted: #10
Good Read ME.  thx for posting.
 
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Always enjoy reading ur writeups
 
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Finally, I would like to thank all of those who have contributed to my success over the years... Believe it or not there are people on these boards who help one another... Koaj, seldombetter, JThollywood, wallstreet, powerade, Mr. bator seldombetter, meshu, BillyBuck, hoopstar, stuckey,gamehunter, wahoo, garfather and numerous others... A special thank you goes out to Vanzack, without your ideas and strategies I may have never made the money I have over the past couple of years..  For those people whom I forgot to list above I hope you know who you are..  I am sure there are some who I forgot to list, but to anyone who contributed positively to the daily discussion it was much appreciated...I am moving on to the real world and don't know when or if ever I will be back to sports wagering.. It was a heck of a ride a lot of hard work, sleepless nights, and plenty of stress... For those of you who think this is a get rich quick sceam think again... This is a grind, and it takes a huge tole on your body, mind, and relationships... Best of luck to everyone this season, bet smart and beat the books by doing good research and keeping sound discipline...  I will try to pop in if I have any good info to share, but will not be a daily poster as I have been in the past...

Good luck all, You are my favorite group of degenerates and you will be missed...

 
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Posted: #13
thanks for the write-ups male...hope to hear from you more soon.  bol this season
 
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Quote Originally Posted by male escort:

Finally, I would like to thank all of those who have contributed to my success over the years... Believe it or not there are people on these boards who help one another... Koaj, seldombetter, JThollywood, wallstreet, powerade, Mr. bator seldombetter, meshu, BillyBuck, hoopstar, stuckey,gamehunter, wahoo, garfather and numerous others... A special thank you goes out to Vanzack, without your ideas and strategies I may have never made the money I have over the past couple of years..  For those people whom I forgot to list above I hope you know who you are..  I am sure there are some who I forgot to list, but to anyone who contributed positively to the daily discussion it was much appreciated...I am moving on to the real world and don't know when or if ever I will be back to sports wagering.. It was a heck of a ride a lot of hard work, sleepless nights, and plenty of stress... For those of you who think this is a get rich quick sceam think again... This is a grind, and it takes a huge tole on your body, mind, and relationships... Best of luck to everyone this season, bet smart and beat the books by doing good research and keeping sound discipline...  I will try to pop in if I have any good info to share, but will not be a daily poster as I have been in the past...

Good luck all, You are my favorite group of degenerates and you will be missed...

I totally respect what you are doing and it takes a lot of balls to quit something like this that you love, you will be missed you are one of the wuality guys around here, Ill be looking foreward to seeing you stopping by from time to time and when I do head back to Chicago we will go to Gibsons and the beers and steaks are on me....cheers male your a good man
 
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I didnt think it was possible to quit sports gambling.  
 
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Good luck to you ME.  You're always a good read and you know your bases. You hit the nail on the head when you said bet dogs.  That's how you make $ in baseball... dogs dogs and more dogs.
 
 
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Thanks to everyone

One last special thank you goes out to Dreamer42... Although he does not post that much on these boards he was my right hand man for the last year.. It was a heck of a ride my friend and I appreciate all the hard work that you did... I know I was not the easiest guy to get along with, but you looked past that and worked your but off everyday... Maybe someday the No Moose will be up and running once again...

Your a good partner and an even better friend...

 
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Houston (Oswalt) @ S.D. (Peavy)
 
We all know that Jake Peavy is an elite pitcher in baseball... The guy has absolutely filthy stuff... Roy Oswalt isn't exactly a slouch...  For some reason I have a gut feeling to stay away... Oswalt at +150 just looks to good to be true... After looking at some past results the astros tend to swing and miss a lot when facing peavy.. There lineup has had little to no success against Peavy, with the best being carlos lee .267... Recomend staying away from this dog...



The total for this game is 6.5..... its the lowest total for Opening Night.  That should be a sign.  But I do agree that Oswalt isn't getting any respect, and Peavy should probably be the play.




 
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I always enjoyed your threads last year in baseball.  You make alot of great points and I learned alot from you. 
 
I dont understand why you think theres stress in baseball.  The most laidback relaxing sport.  Bet a few dogs and go play golf.  You dont have to wait for 2nd halfs, or do any crazy indepth stats about covering spreads.
 
I can understand quitting College football and basketball and NFL and NBA....but baseball? 
 
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Overall, there are nine games that are games played within divisions.  I think all of them offer value.

 
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I always enjoyed your threads last year in baseball.  You make alot of great points and I learned alot from you. 
 
I dont understand why you think theres stress in baseball.  The most laidback relaxing sport.  Bet a few dogs and go play golf.  You dont have to wait for 2nd halfs, or do any crazy indepth stats about covering spreads.
 
I can understand quitting College football and basketball and NFL and NBA....but baseball? 
 
For some reason my computer won't let me quote...
 
I guess I didn't articulate what I wanted to type....  There is stress in all types of gambling... Yes baseball is my best sport and I did very well handicaping it... Baseball has its fair share of stress... Have to bid on prices between 12:00-2:00 Am eastern time... Have to wake up early to see what happend with the bids.. Have to make sure all of the bids get filled by game time, deal with partial orders throughout the day... The time consumption of watching games (almost) all of the games on TV... See what players are doing, how they perform, who is in a slump, who gets dinged up, how managers blow or on occassion make good moves in certain situations... The last one is very important... Koaj won't even bet the national league anymore do to the managers influence or lack there of...  While the season is going on I still would have to get in between 1200-2200 poker hands a day... For me the best move right now is to sit on the sidelines and regroup.. It is time for me to turn a new chapter which doesn't involve sports investing and poker... However, if I do come back it will begin with wagering on baseball, and will expand if needed from there... It deffinately won't be this season though...
 
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great read male
 
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i, too, don't understand why you can't do it as a hobby, but good luck to you and thanks for all the help
 
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Good luck ME....I enjoyed your thoughts.
 
 
 
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Good luck ME, All due respect - you may not be here, but you will be on a phone, or standing on line placing wagers somewhere. As long as your on earth the real world includes gambling no matter where you are. After 3 plus years eachday you don't, and can't just walk away. Have a great season.... 
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