I'm no expert in baseball or in any other form of sports! I'm a mathematician. So, please be aware that I'm conducting a social experiment trying to see if I could generate steady profits betting on sports using mathematical methods of money management and AI capabilities I have understanding of to figure out the possible outcomes.
Now, please be aware that AI itself is not generative as of yet and it can only do what we teach it to do with great limitations. It can save us time finding profitable trends over the period of time and it can point out mismatches and weaknesses in lines and the odds released by the oddsmakers. But, it yet has to establish common logic based on self structured analysis as that is nowhere to be found yet unless we teach it. And in that case too we are dependent on its memory capabilities. Copilot, Gemini, ChatGPT o3 and o4, Claude, Canvas, Eleven Labs etc etc - if we do not have the completely matching prompt to feed - they always will be as good as our query.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Disclaimer:
I'm no expert in baseball or in any other form of sports! I'm a mathematician. So, please be aware that I'm conducting a social experiment trying to see if I could generate steady profits betting on sports using mathematical methods of money management and AI capabilities I have understanding of to figure out the possible outcomes.
Now, please be aware that AI itself is not generative as of yet and it can only do what we teach it to do with great limitations. It can save us time finding profitable trends over the period of time and it can point out mismatches and weaknesses in lines and the odds released by the oddsmakers. But, it yet has to establish common logic based on self structured analysis as that is nowhere to be found yet unless we teach it. And in that case too we are dependent on its memory capabilities. Copilot, Gemini, ChatGPT o3 and o4, Claude, Canvas, Eleven Labs etc etc - if we do not have the completely matching prompt to feed - they always will be as good as our query.
Going 3-0 on my first 3 picks without having even a slightest idea about the team's strength... It's all AI based on years old trends - just fading those trends.
Well, up 307 units. So 1307 units is the new balance
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Is this a beginners luck?
Going 3-0 on my first 3 picks without having even a slightest idea about the team's strength... It's all AI based on years old trends - just fading those trends.
Well, up 307 units. So 1307 units is the new balance
Just a small positive input if I may please: I ran back your 9 plays and - if I am not mistaken - I see clear pattern of fading the trends that are good over 51%. Well, contrarian betting can be profitable if you also add to that an element of anti public and that usually can be only with the teams with losing records SU or ATS. And, then too - to have a steady profitable path - you will have to be extremely lucky to be winning more games than losing. That is why I use Hidden Markov model integrated with a special grade of martingale system. Now, not that I am profitable at this time but I know that over the longer sample I will be. I rarely comment in someone else's threads -but, I think that I must say what I just said. BOL CS1
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Just a small positive input if I may please: I ran back your 9 plays and - if I am not mistaken - I see clear pattern of fading the trends that are good over 51%. Well, contrarian betting can be profitable if you also add to that an element of anti public and that usually can be only with the teams with losing records SU or ATS. And, then too - to have a steady profitable path - you will have to be extremely lucky to be winning more games than losing. That is why I use Hidden Markov model integrated with a special grade of martingale system. Now, not that I am profitable at this time but I know that over the longer sample I will be. I rarely comment in someone else's threads -but, I think that I must say what I just said. BOL CS1
How do you gain 30% on 3 wins … you gain 3 thousandths… or 1.003 units right. ? 1.0. Tenths. 1.00. Hundredths…1.003. Thousandths. You wagered 1 out of 1000…. Right. Not 1 out of 10. I’m not a mathematician… but you said you wagered 1 of 1,000…
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@ClaudeShannon1
How do you gain 30% on 3 wins … you gain 3 thousandths… or 1.003 units right. ? 1.0. Tenths. 1.00. Hundredths…1.003. Thousandths. You wagered 1 out of 1000…. Right. Not 1 out of 10. I’m not a mathematician… but you said you wagered 1 of 1,000…
@ClaudeShannon1 How do you gain 30% on 3 wins … you gain 3 thousandths… or 1.003 units right. ? 1.0. Tenths. 1.00. Hundredths…1.003. Thousandths. You wagered 1 out of 1000…. Right. Not 1 out of 10. I’m not a mathematician… but you said you wagered 1 of 1,000…
Sorry for the confusion I caused. My bad. just picks with no money relation. I am 4-5 right now -118
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Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets:
@ClaudeShannon1 How do you gain 30% on 3 wins … you gain 3 thousandths… or 1.003 units right. ? 1.0. Tenths. 1.00. Hundredths…1.003. Thousandths. You wagered 1 out of 1000…. Right. Not 1 out of 10. I’m not a mathematician… but you said you wagered 1 of 1,000…
Sorry for the confusion I caused. My bad. just picks with no money relation. I am 4-5 right now -118
Just a small positive input if I may please: I ran back your 9 plays and - if I am not mistaken - I see clear pattern of fading the trends that are good over 51%. Well, contrarian betting can be profitable if you also add to that an element of anti public and that usually can be only with the teams with losing records SU or ATS. And, then too - to have a steady profitable path - you will have to be extremely lucky to be winning more games than losing. That is why I use Hidden Markov model integrated with a special grade of martingale system. Now, not that I am profitable at this time but I know that over the longer sample I will be. I rarely comment in someone else's threads -but, I think that I must say what I just said. BOL CS1
You and your righteous posts are so tiring...
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Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:
Just a small positive input if I may please: I ran back your 9 plays and - if I am not mistaken - I see clear pattern of fading the trends that are good over 51%. Well, contrarian betting can be profitable if you also add to that an element of anti public and that usually can be only with the teams with losing records SU or ATS. And, then too - to have a steady profitable path - you will have to be extremely lucky to be winning more games than losing. That is why I use Hidden Markov model integrated with a special grade of martingale system. Now, not that I am profitable at this time but I know that over the longer sample I will be. I rarely comment in someone else's threads -but, I think that I must say what I just said. BOL CS1
Yes sir… even my bank does not understand decimal points… assuming all my learning was for not… my bank says they pay 1.08% on my savings account… then they pay .00108…. 6ish dollars on 30,000$ over 3 months… its so minuscule I pay no attention… but their printed interest payment is 1.08 ish…. That is actually one percent plus .0008…. Which would be 300 ish dollars on 30,000 in a year…. Maybe if you read the fine print they are compounding it every 10 years…. So my bank has no idea how to read decimal points…. Good luck… my suggestion is you do this for entertainment purposes only unless you are lucky… I am not lucky… I live bet Philly n oak other night in 4th inning…. Under 6.5….. it was 1-0 Philly going to the 9th…. Now those that wagered over 6.5… are lucky imo…. I am not….. I have hundreds of these … and most … and I mean most… go the way of this…. I’m no longer shocked … I just play to enjoy a very small bit of risk…. I handicap the handicappers on here… not the games anymore… and even with the best… I tend to lose… I’ll decide to add a can’t miss to one of their picks… and my can’t miss will…. The game was 1-0 going into the 9nth…. What are the odds of st least 6 runs in one inning even with the watered down pitching….. I no longer am surprised… been doing this 40 plus years… my high school girlfriend parents played with local bookie is how it started…. Of course I hit my first ever wager… for a half…50$… when you are 17… and hit for 50$ in 1982… I was set for the week… that led to me losing hundreds to 2,000 in college…. And that for me was unsustainable… and just a collasal…?… waste of time n money….and here I are today…
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@ClaudeShannon1
Yes sir… even my bank does not understand decimal points… assuming all my learning was for not… my bank says they pay 1.08% on my savings account… then they pay .00108…. 6ish dollars on 30,000$ over 3 months… its so minuscule I pay no attention… but their printed interest payment is 1.08 ish…. That is actually one percent plus .0008…. Which would be 300 ish dollars on 30,000 in a year…. Maybe if you read the fine print they are compounding it every 10 years…. So my bank has no idea how to read decimal points…. Good luck… my suggestion is you do this for entertainment purposes only unless you are lucky… I am not lucky… I live bet Philly n oak other night in 4th inning…. Under 6.5….. it was 1-0 Philly going to the 9th…. Now those that wagered over 6.5… are lucky imo…. I am not….. I have hundreds of these … and most … and I mean most… go the way of this…. I’m no longer shocked … I just play to enjoy a very small bit of risk…. I handicap the handicappers on here… not the games anymore… and even with the best… I tend to lose… I’ll decide to add a can’t miss to one of their picks… and my can’t miss will…. The game was 1-0 going into the 9nth…. What are the odds of st least 6 runs in one inning even with the watered down pitching….. I no longer am surprised… been doing this 40 plus years… my high school girlfriend parents played with local bookie is how it started…. Of course I hit my first ever wager… for a half…50$… when you are 17… and hit for 50$ in 1982… I was set for the week… that led to me losing hundreds to 2,000 in college…. And that for me was unsustainable… and just a collasal…?… waste of time n money….and here I are today…
@ClaudeShannon1 Yes sir… even my bank does not understand decimal points… assuming all my learning was for not… my bank says they pay 1.08% on my savings account… then they pay .00108…. 6ish dollars on 30,000$ over 3 months… its so minuscule I pay no attention… but their printed interest payment is 1.08 ish…. That is actually one percent plus .0008…. Which would be 300 ish dollars on 30,000 in a year…. Maybe if you read the fine print they are compounding it every 10 years…. So my bank has no idea how to read decimal points…. Good luck… my suggestion is you do this for entertainment purposes only unless you are lucky… I am not lucky… I live bet Philly n oak other night in 4th inning…. Under 6.5….. it was 1-0 Philly going to the 9th…. Now those that wagered over 6.5… are lucky imo…. I am not….. I have hundreds of these … and most … and I mean most… go the way of this…. I’m no longer shocked … I just play to enjoy a very small bit of risk…. I handicap the handicappers on here… not the games anymore… and even with the best… I tend to lose… I’ll decide to add a can’t miss to one of their picks… and my can’t miss will…. The game was 1-0 going into the 9nth…. What are the odds of st least 6 runs in one inning even with the watered down pitching….. I no longer am surprised… been doing this 40 plus years… my high school girlfriend parents played with local bookie is how it started…. Of course I hit my first ever wager… for a half…50$… when you are 17… and hit for 50$ in 1982… I was set for the week… that led to me losing hundreds to 2,000 in college…. And that for me was unsustainable… and just a collasal…?… waste of time n money….and here I are today…
Interesting. One thing for sure -you do have a way of writing. You should devote more time to that. Write short stories and novels with methodical description of the events in a chronological order with summing up the totals. A life of a gambler - then, now and tomorrow. I'm sure it will be a bestseller. Serious
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Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets:
@ClaudeShannon1 Yes sir… even my bank does not understand decimal points… assuming all my learning was for not… my bank says they pay 1.08% on my savings account… then they pay .00108…. 6ish dollars on 30,000$ over 3 months… its so minuscule I pay no attention… but their printed interest payment is 1.08 ish…. That is actually one percent plus .0008…. Which would be 300 ish dollars on 30,000 in a year…. Maybe if you read the fine print they are compounding it every 10 years…. So my bank has no idea how to read decimal points…. Good luck… my suggestion is you do this for entertainment purposes only unless you are lucky… I am not lucky… I live bet Philly n oak other night in 4th inning…. Under 6.5….. it was 1-0 Philly going to the 9th…. Now those that wagered over 6.5… are lucky imo…. I am not….. I have hundreds of these … and most … and I mean most… go the way of this…. I’m no longer shocked … I just play to enjoy a very small bit of risk…. I handicap the handicappers on here… not the games anymore… and even with the best… I tend to lose… I’ll decide to add a can’t miss to one of their picks… and my can’t miss will…. The game was 1-0 going into the 9nth…. What are the odds of st least 6 runs in one inning even with the watered down pitching….. I no longer am surprised… been doing this 40 plus years… my high school girlfriend parents played with local bookie is how it started…. Of course I hit my first ever wager… for a half…50$… when you are 17… and hit for 50$ in 1982… I was set for the week… that led to me losing hundreds to 2,000 in college…. And that for me was unsustainable… and just a collasal…?… waste of time n money….and here I are today…
Interesting. One thing for sure -you do have a way of writing. You should devote more time to that. Write short stories and novels with methodical description of the events in a chronological order with summing up the totals. A life of a gambler - then, now and tomorrow. I'm sure it will be a bestseller. Serious
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