Mr Herbshack where do I find your NCAAF and NFL picks???
Thank you
Hey Jorge, I haven't opened threads up like this one yet. Hopefully I'll have time very soon. Only so much time in the day for me between many different businesses I run. I'm working on two new rental properties (so offline stuff) at the moment and that is taking up a bunch of my time. Posting here is just a recreational thing...I get off on the rush of putting myself out there with the chance of success and glory :) :) :)
I'll get to it...
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Quote Originally Posted by Jorgelb47:
Mr Herbshack where do I find your NCAAF and NFL picks???
Thank you
Hey Jorge, I haven't opened threads up like this one yet. Hopefully I'll have time very soon. Only so much time in the day for me between many different businesses I run. I'm working on two new rental properties (so offline stuff) at the moment and that is taking up a bunch of my time. Posting here is just a recreational thing...I get off on the rush of putting myself out there with the chance of success and glory :) :) :)
For today, I really like the Dodgers, but let's keep it small. I hate going heavy into a marquee game even if it is the public fade side. My favorite bets are usually on the soft lines in those games no one really cares about....
$74 to win $82.88
Los Angeles Dodgers +112
vs Chicago Cubs
I'm from Chicago and do like the Cubs as a fan so you know I don't have any arbitrary bias here. My opinion is that its absurd how heavy the public is favoring the Cubs, on the road, overvalued favorites, off of a loss. The Cubs are 3-1 +2.00 units now in the playoffs (2016) at home, but on the road, I'm not yet impressed at 1-1 -0.08 units...the loss there to the Giants (on the road) and for a very similar trappy sort of line.
Fade the public and go with the home dog.
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For today, I really like the Dodgers, but let's keep it small. I hate going heavy into a marquee game even if it is the public fade side. My favorite bets are usually on the soft lines in those games no one really cares about....
$74 to win $82.88
Los Angeles Dodgers +112
vs Chicago Cubs
I'm from Chicago and do like the Cubs as a fan so you know I don't have any arbitrary bias here. My opinion is that its absurd how heavy the public is favoring the Cubs, on the road, overvalued favorites, off of a loss. The Cubs are 3-1 +2.00 units now in the playoffs (2016) at home, but on the road, I'm not yet impressed at 1-1 -0.08 units...the loss there to the Giants (on the road) and for a very similar trappy sort of line.
tell me you like the Dodgers today buddy, going to the game, need the wise hopes
There ya go...people are super interested in this game today compared to the other MLB game with the Indians (who I have a lean on), and its just nuts how much the public bettors love the Cubs over the home team. I have the fair line at about -135 for the Dodgers in this one.
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Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
tell me you like the Dodgers today buddy, going to the game, need the wise hopes
There ya go...people are super interested in this game today compared to the other MLB game with the Indians (who I have a lean on), and its just nuts how much the public bettors love the Cubs over the home team. I have the fair line at about -135 for the Dodgers in this one.
Thank you for your reply, I have been following your MLB picks for the last couple of months and it has been great, Was hoping to jump on your football picks.
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Thank you for your reply, I have been following your MLB picks for the last couple of months and it has been great, Was hoping to jump on your football picks.
What you got on today's game's ? I like Unders Headed to the Dodgers game today
Dodgers again and Cleveland. Dodgers = stronger play, but I got the bet in earlier today when they were at plus odds so I'm not going to post it up here.
Best of luck today guys. Sweet win on the last one! The public is so silly about the Cubs. Betting the chalk for the unlikely....free money yesterday fading them....good value today -- not as strong though.
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Quote Originally Posted by LAC63:
What you got on today's game's ? I like Unders Headed to the Dodgers game today
Dodgers again and Cleveland. Dodgers = stronger play, but I got the bet in earlier today when they were at plus odds so I'm not going to post it up here.
Best of luck today guys. Sweet win on the last one! The public is so silly about the Cubs. Betting the chalk for the unlikely....free money yesterday fading them....good value today -- not as strong though.
Slight lean right now on the Dodgers again. I'll follow up if I'm going with them. The public will probably move the line in our favor if we wait. Not enough value right now.
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Slight lean right now on the Dodgers again. I'll follow up if I'm going with them. The public will probably move the line in our favor if we wait. Not enough value right now.
Looks like the Doyers are toast, but that's my view. They have trouble hitting lefties with a good curve, and Lester has one. We don't know if Kershaw will come in and pull a MadBum, or not...
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Looks like the Doyers are toast, but that's my view. They have trouble hitting lefties with a good curve, and Lester has one. We don't know if Kershaw will come in and pull a MadBum, or not...
great year Herb!!! i'll look for u on NCAA/ NFL threads....bol going forward..
Thanks. I think, in terms of what these teams have done in the playoffs, things are a dead tie....and I mean dead tie.
In terms of the full 2016 season happenings, the Cubs would get the edge. It all depends where the public is taking away value and just passing and being on the sharp side. I'll post up if I like a bet which I might.
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Quote Originally Posted by sfg8:
great year Herb!!! i'll look for u on NCAA/ NFL threads....bol going forward..
Thanks. I think, in terms of what these teams have done in the playoffs, things are a dead tie....and I mean dead tie.
In terms of the full 2016 season happenings, the Cubs would get the edge. It all depends where the public is taking away value and just passing and being on the sharp side. I'll post up if I like a bet which I might.
Indians had 41 stolen bases against lefties = 2nd most in MLB + 80% success rate = 1st. With how bad Lester is at fielding and even worse at holding guys on, the Tribe will go running wild tonight.
The Tribe also needs this game more than the Cubs.
Tribe -1
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You got this Herb.
Indians had 41 stolen bases against lefties = 2nd most in MLB + 80% success rate = 1st. With how bad Lester is at fielding and even worse at holding guys on, the Tribe will go running wild tonight.
The Tribe also needs this game more than the Cubs.
People keep betting the Cubs in overvalued spots...I ran this whimsical thought by some local (Chicago) friends the other day: "Why would you think that, if a team hasn't won the World Series in over a century, they're so likely to now that A. they should be favorites B. you should be them as anything but what they really are here in the big picture: underdogs?"
Anyways, my friends and Cubs fans do see the Cubs as underdogs and are all rooting for them. Can't believe how indifferent I am....
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Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
$95 to win $104.5
Cleveland Indians +110WINNER!
vs Chicago Cubs
People keep betting the Cubs in overvalued spots...I ran this whimsical thought by some local (Chicago) friends the other day: "Why would you think that, if a team hasn't won the World Series in over a century, they're so likely to now that A. they should be favorites B. you should be them as anything but what they really are here in the big picture: underdogs?"
Anyways, my friends and Cubs fans do see the Cubs as underdogs and are all rooting for them. Can't believe how indifferent I am....
Indeed. When you set your own goals, you're able to break more records than you ever imagined.
I feel like there's some pin up poster inspirational bullshit potential or w/e in that statement. Free rights to it if you want it while its hot.
Current Bankroll: $10,952.45
from $4000 (+173.81 units)
As always, the key to making these kinds of gains and keeping them is to always stay grounded. Be humble, assume only that 66%+ of that success must be attributed to luck. Keep the money fluid always, but pass if there's nothing good.
For example, tonight, I like the Indians again, and I have some powerful systems for them and I have them rated as slight home favorites here; however, they're even bigger dogs and right now the public is almost 50/50 split on the Cubs and Indians. Really feels like a trap to take a dog off of a win for even better return with more people biting today on a bigger dog. Feels like the books might know something we don't on the Cubs so best thing to do, for me, is PASS.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:
Another recordbreaking high for Herb!
Indeed. When you set your own goals, you're able to break more records than you ever imagined.
I feel like there's some pin up poster inspirational bullshit potential or w/e in that statement. Free rights to it if you want it while its hot.
Current Bankroll: $10,952.45
from $4000 (+173.81 units)
As always, the key to making these kinds of gains and keeping them is to always stay grounded. Be humble, assume only that 66%+ of that success must be attributed to luck. Keep the money fluid always, but pass if there's nothing good.
For example, tonight, I like the Indians again, and I have some powerful systems for them and I have them rated as slight home favorites here; however, they're even bigger dogs and right now the public is almost 50/50 split on the Cubs and Indians. Really feels like a trap to take a dog off of a win for even better return with more people biting today on a bigger dog. Feels like the books might know something we don't on the Cubs so best thing to do, for me, is PASS.
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