Posted:
#501
Good luck herb! 
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September Dogs - Starting with $4k
Posted:
#502
Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:
Good luck herb!
Good luck herb!
Thanks. D-Backs lose me two now in classic pick up spots for the league. Potential bottom feeder that dumped too much money into one starter (Grienke)? One of my selections is actually on the Padres (pm me for other plays) fading their ace now on the road.
For today:
Mets vs Indians
Mets +108$505 to win $545.40
Some thoughts:
- Bartolo Colon is 49-21 (70%, 34.6 units, +46.9% roi) SU on the road between +160 and -135.
- The Indians are 16-27 since Jul 02, 2012 at home after a game on the road. - Take Mets
- The Mets are 30-21 since Apr 26, 2011 as road dogs off of a home game. - Mets
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Posted:
#504
For today:
Braves +126
$99 to win $124.74
- SYSTEM: Sub .380 Road dogs off of a division win as dogs are 110.121 +53.79 units +23.3% roi SU - Take Braves!
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Posted:
#505
For today:
Braves +126
$99 to win $124.74
- SYSTEM: Sub .380 Road dogs off of a division win as dogs are 110.121 +53.79 units +23.3% roi SU - Take Braves!
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Posted:
#507
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
Braves vs Marlins
Braves +126 Win
For today:
Braves +126 Win
$99 to win $124.74
- SYSTEM: Sub .380 Road dogs off of a division win as dogs are 110.121 +53.79 units +23.3% roi SU - Take Braves!
Current Bankroll: $7,304.95 (+82.62 units)
from $4000
Almost to +100 units now...
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Posted:
#508
For today:
Mets vs Phillies
Phillies +174
Phillies +174
$101 to win $175.74
*The Mets are 8-21 since Jun 29, 2014 on the road off of a win as a dog.
*Teams are 9-16 +42.9% roi fade SU since Oct 18, 2015 as favorites after a game on the road as dogs - Fade Mets.
0
Posted:
#510
Risked $202 to win $238.36
Minnesota Twins +118
vs Milwaukee Brewers
Trivial trend: The Twins are 84-65 +31.25 units SU since 2013 vs. sub .500 (easy) opponents. - Up +35.13 units now....
Note: In my newsletter, I give out trends and mark down the record of a trend since inception so that later on I can compare records. Perhaps this Twins trend is more than trivial :)
Note: In my newsletter, I give out trends and mark down the record of a trend since inception so that later on I can compare records. Perhaps this Twins trend is more than trivial :)
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Posted:
#511
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
Trivial trend: The Twins are 84-65 +31.25 units SU since 2013 vs. sub .500 (easy) opponents. - Up +35.13 units now....
Note: In my newsletter, I give out trends and mark down the record of a trend since inception so that later on I can compare records. Perhaps this Twins trend is more than trivial :)
Note: In my newsletter, I give out trends and mark down the record of a trend since inception so that later on I can compare records. Perhaps this Twins trend is more than trivial :)
Also note: With that Twins trend: If you filter out results where "win percent" isn't backed by a large enough sample size to mean anything (eg. early season, late reg. season when callups are in the house) this trend imrpoves. I like to keep it broad, but it is little tests like that that I do to run my systems and trends thru the paces....more than just looking for logic and good p-value and z-score and all that....
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Posted:
#522
For Today (at 1:05 PM):
SYSTEM SUPPORTING BEST BET + GIANTS RUNNER UP Home Favorites; sub .490 going for the sweep at home vs. a sub .500 opponent 204-93 +68.94 units - up a massive +9 units roughly since inception on this one.
I have a partnership with sportsdatabase.com and the "SDQL" for that system (to get active bets in the future) is this:
n:series game = 1 and series games > 2 and p:HW and pp:HW
and playoffs = 0 and WP < 49 and o:WP < 50 and H and line < -105
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Posted:
#523
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
For Today (at 1:05 PM):
For Today (at 1:05 PM):
SYSTEM SUPPORTING BEST BET + GIANTS RUNNER UP Home Favorites; sub .490 going for the sweep at home vs. a sub .500 opponent 204-93 +68.94 units - up a massive +9 units roughly since inception on this one.
I have a partnership with sportsdatabase.com and the "SDQL" for that system (to get active bets in the future) is this:
n:series game = 1 and series games > 2 and p:HW and pp:HW
and playoffs = 0 and WP < 49 and o:WP < 50 and H and line < -105
Crud, sorry the play is:
$107.00 to win $149.80
New York Yankees -1 +140
vs Tampa Bay Rays
Anyone else use sdql by the way?
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Posted:
#525
Nice dice on the Yankees or A's. Here's my best for today (runner up is Indians +111):
$321 to win $356.31
Toronto Blue Jays +113
vs Chicago White Sox
- The Blue Jays are 12-0 RL as a home dog after a loss in which they had 12+ hits. (Supports best bet and suggests trying the +1 or +1.5 rl)
- SYSTEM SUPPORTING JAYS Best Bet - Fade a plus .640 team off a win *No Road Dogs *Not late in the season *Other team has at least a 3% worse record *No pitcher dual sized totals - 579-596 +154.48 units +12.7% roi. - SDQL is: WP>64 and (HD or F) and p:W and month<8 and WP-o:WP>3 and total>7
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