Posted:
#1
19-18-1 -2.23U
Saw an encouraging win late last night that I'm hoping would be my turning point. Anyway, I use notepad to analyze games and I thought why not paste it here.
Indians at Tigers
Aaron Laffey is 2-0 so far this season. Indians are 3-0 in his starts so far. 18.2 IP, 15 hits given up, 1.34 WHIP, 2.41 ERA. He's 0-1 in Detroit but actually had a very effective outing going 6 2/3 innings giving up only 6 hits and 2ER 2BB 2K. Zach Miner never had a start against the Indians but has a 1-1 record against them
giving up 18 runs in 14.1 innings of work. These numbers are particularly concerning:
In 14.1 IP => 8ER 3HR 8BB 7K 5.02 ERA 1.81 WHIP .321 BAA
At home this year, he's given up 9 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings of work. He has a bloated 3.60 WHIP and a 21.60 ERA. Yes, 3.1 innings of work is a very small sampling size and those numbers could go down a lot once he shows a good outing but still, the pattern could very well continue as his numbers against the Indians and what he has posted so far this season are along the same lines. Playing on grass is no different either, in 2 games started on grass, he's given up 13 hits in 9.1 innings of work giving up 9 ER for an ERA of 8.68. Opponents hit .351 in this situation.
Injuries...
Indians:
Hafner - 15DL - Shoulder
Carroll - 15DL - Hand
Carroll - 15DL - Hand
Lineup will probably look like this...
hist. #s vs. Miner =>
Sizemore - 2-7 K .286
Cabrera - 1-2 BB .500
Martinez - 1-5 BB .200
Choo - 1-2 RBI .500
DeRosa - 1-3 .333
Peralta - 3-7 BB K .429
Dellucci - 0-1 .000
Francisco - 1-2 .500
Shoppach - 2-4 2B RBI K .500
Cabrera - 1-2 BB .500
Martinez - 1-5 BB .200
Choo - 1-2 RBI .500
DeRosa - 1-3 .333
Peralta - 3-7 BB K .429
Dellucci - 0-1 .000
Francisco - 1-2 .500
Shoppach - 2-4 2B RBI K .500
The guy who seems to have done the most damage is sitting out. Hafner is only 1-4 but is the only guy who homered off of Miner and has 2rbi. Overall, not enough sampling size once again but the hits but I'm not seeing much 0-fer either.
Miner has historically pitched a lot worse in the daytime. He's averaged 2 more earned runs in his career pitching in the daytime than at night. His day ERA is 5.69 career-wise. This season, his day ERA is 21+ - no that's not a typo.
Laffey pitches well all around but one thing of concern is the amount of walks he gives up. A roster like Detroit's, he needs to be careful with this as the Tigers can be pretty imposing and he may find himself walking a lot once again. Numbers-wise, in 2 day games so far, opponents are hitting him at .195. Comparing these two pitchers, I would say that Laffey is more careful with his location.
Thames is out for Detroit as well as Treanor. This leaves the lineup looking like this:
hist #s vs. Laffey
Granderson - N/A
Polanco - 0-3
Ordonez - 1-2
Cabrera - 0-3
Guillen - 1-3
Laird - N/A
Inge - N/A
Anderson - N/A
Everett - N/A
The ump, Laz Diaz, loves them road teams going 0-3 on the home teams with 3-0 on the OU. you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out where those runs came from. Both pens are horrible but Tigers' pen is worse posting 6.85 ERA. Tigers are hitting .338 at home and Indians are also hitting a respectable .287 vs righties on the road. Tigers are 4-1 in game 2 of a series after a loss. Indians are 0-2 in game 2 of a series after a win.
GL
I would take the Indians team total over here as I'm not convinced, Tigers can hold them down.
Indians team total Over 5 -108 2U
GL
0
I was going "yup it's over"..funny how when i'm in a funk, comebacks seem to be happen less. 
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