Saturday Afternoon - MLB

'11-12 MLB:  69-40-4 (63.3%)  +23.32u

best of luck bro!

My model projects the Dodgers at -122, but I think they stand an even better chance than that.  A good portion of that projection is derived from LAD's #26 ranked offense against lefties but we all know that they've played most of the season without their star offensive players.  With a healthy line-up I think their offensive probability is even greater than it reads currently, meaning the Dodgers could be as high as -130 or even -140 in this match-up.  The big reason for this discrepancy versus the Vegas line is in starting pitching.  On the surface, Zito looks to be over a half run better than Billingsley.  But within the Sabrmetrics, it actually appears that Billingsley is much better.  In fact, I rank Billingsley #45 compared to Zito who ranks near the bottom of the league at #201.  His SIERA and xFIP are around 5.3 which are some of the worst numbers in the business.  He gets hit hard and basically will continue to get hit hard and ultimately send his ERA north towards the 5 range.  The line also looks to grab at Giants money, yet I've watched the Dodger end get juiced from +108 to +100 and even back as a favorite in some places.  Reverse line movement confirms some of what I'm seeing on paper.  I like the Dodgers chances at EV.

I like dodgers play, but don't like to side with redsox.  GL

Sil

love the Dodger play but any play against the ants is a great play in my book 

I threw in the towel on Lester for the rest of this year.

The Red Sox line is about pure value.  My model has them projected at +153, meaning they have value at anything higher than this number.  Thanks to heavy public sentiment that the Red Sox are yesterday's news, this line has gotten way out of control.  Lester may have been hit hard a few times this season, but his sabrmetrics suggest that he still has the potential to recover.  He ranks #56 in my database because all of his ERA-Scaled Predictor Metrics are over a run better than his current ERA.  The fact is, he's not THAT much worse than CC.  Neither is the Red Sox offense that ranks #6 against lefties compared to New York that ranks #3 against lefties.  Sure the Yankees have the advantages on paper, but not so much that they deserve to be laying -200 on this game.  The Sox can still play ball, and I bet they show up today and give the Yankees some hell.  With a top 60 pitcher and top 7 offense, it's certainly worth the investment at +185 return.

love the red sox today i bet them also and dodgers hope we get us a few buddy

there is no value when you lose ...... and the redsox fuck are pure garbage ... more value in finding another game .. good luck bro

fuck there goes my yankee bet

Hello MASTER si1ly....I sure hope to see you also at the ticket window for Red Sox. Yanks killed me last series so I hope to get something back today from Red Sox.

 

Dodgers throwing a interesting line up out there today with Ethier batting second hopefully Billingsly can build off his last start.

No Salty for the red sox.. I just can't do it!

Thanks guys!  Good luck this afternoon!  Playing my 4th and 5th dog in a row in some way shape or form.

The Dodgers strike first.  What did I say about the team to score first prop last night?  Hahaha.

GL

Quote Originally Posted by LEBRONNN:

i think there is value in the red sox tonight what do you think silly

shit sorry didnt see this thread until now, thanks buddy ill be playing them with you!