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Money Ball 7-02-2015

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Posted: #26
BOL 
 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by Seadoo14:

Key, is it worth playing Wash -1.5 for less juice? Is here value there instead of laying a ton of juice, even though Scherzer is best in class?
Laying -1.5 decreases your probability. If the line is still -$ then you have two problems to overcome, winning and winning by margin (2). I never lay runs and odds both. A profit of 53% on my investment in just a few hours is fine by me. Greed is a killer.

 

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #28
Best of luck today my friend 
 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

While Scherzer has pitched great this year,he's still prone to give up the long ball.The lack of run support is why he has 5 losses this year.If the kid and bullpen keeps the runs at 3 or under,then the Braves have a chance at home.Never liked going against pitchers i've never seen because you don't really know who is going to show up.   
Half of a home run per 9 is "prone to give up the long ball"? News to me.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by sideJOBplay:

Another 3 road team . Danger
You are probably not going to meld in well here. 60 to 70% of my picks are on road teams. Might find happiness elsewhere. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #31
Scherzer 2.01 FIP, 2.47 SIERA, clearly at the top of his game.
 
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Posted: #32
BOL
 
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Posted: #33
GL as always 
 
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Posted: #34
I'm not advocating taking the RL here because it's now juiced to -115 and even more at some shops. However, if you were in early enough to get +$ on the RL this is one of the few spots where a RL bet can be backed. A stud pitcher with a significant advantage both in lineup and opposing pitcher in a +RL spot on the road where his team gets all 27 outs. 

My book is tempting me with 3.5 TT for WAS but it's juiced to -135. Still very tempting. This kid for the Braves has a horrible walk rate at every level and Was is 12th in MLB in walks and also 8th in OBP vs lefties this year. 
 
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Posted: #35
Hi Key I'm on all 3 plus parlay. I hope you saw my post from last night as I doubled up on the SOX telling everyone u weren't going to go 0-3 and you didn't. Great handicapping much appreciated and thank you!!
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by britman4321:

Hi Key I'm on all 3 plus parlay. I hope you saw my post from last night as I doubled up on the SOX telling everyone u weren't going to go 0-3 and you didn't. Great handicapping much appreciated and thank you!!

As if somehow Key's win probability for the late game goes up because he dropped the 1st 2. If you're going to stroke the guy at least make sense. Not that anyone needs you "telling" them to back Key.
 
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Posted: #37
Hey idealist that message was for KEY not YOU so go and post something productive and stop taking up space. If you had any brains you would read last nights posts and be a little more informed on your quotes. Clearly I'm not telling anyone to follow Key just my own perceptions. We all want to win so relax
Quote Originally Posted by idealist:

Quote Originally Posted by britman4321:

Hi Key I'm on all 3 plus parlay. I hope you saw my post from last night as I doubled up on the SOX telling everyone u weren't going to go 0-3 and you didn't. Great handicapping much appreciated and thank you!!
As if somehow Key's win probability for the late game goes up because he dropped the 1st 2. If you're going to stroke the guy at least make sense. Not that anyone needs you "telling" them to back Key.


Hey idealist that message was for KEY not YOU so go and post something productive and stop taking up space. If you had any brains you would read last nights posts and be a little more informed on your quotes. Clearly I'm not telling anyone to follow Key just my own perceptions. We all want to win so relax
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by britman4321:

As if somehow Key's win probability for the late game goes up because he dropped the 1st 2. If you're going to stroke the guy at least make sense. Not that anyone needs you "telling" them to back Key.

Hey idealist that message was for KEY not YOU so go and post something productive and stop taking up space. If you had any brains you would read last nights posts and be a little more informed on your quotes. Clearly I'm not telling anyone to follow Key just my own perceptions. We all want to win so relax

Read up a few posts I posted something actually productive instead of just the usual "GL" and "THX" here. 

GL with your plays 
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by idealist:


As if somehow Key's win probability for the late game goes up because he dropped the 1st 2. If you're going to stroke the guy at least make sense. Not that anyone needs you "telling" them to back Key.

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #40
Key, have been following you for little over a week now, how do you feel about 2-3 team parlay on the picks? Keep up the solid picks
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by britman4321:

Hey idealist that message was for KEY not YOU so go and post something productive and stop taking up space. If you had any brains you would read last nights posts and be a little more informed on your quotes. Clearly I'm not telling anyone to follow Key just my own perceptions. We all want to win so relax
Quote Originally Posted by idealist:

Quote Originally Posted by britman4321:

Hi Key I'm on all 3 plus parlay. I hope you saw my post from last night as I doubled up on the SOX telling everyone u weren't going to go 0-3 and you didn't. Great handicapping much appreciated and thank you!!
As if somehow Key's win probability for the late game goes up because he dropped the 1st 2. If you're going to stroke the guy at least make sense. Not that anyone needs you "telling" them to back Key.
Hey idealist that message was for KEY not YOU so go and post something productive and stop taking up space. If you had any brains you would read last nights posts and be a little more informed on your quotes. Clearly I'm not telling anyone to follow Key just my own perceptions. We all want to win so relax



I was all over the Sox last night as well, key has been strong this week and we'll get them back tonight. Rangers going to take the O's
 
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Posted: #42
road teams typically offer some of the best value. when you're picking teams at + money, you only need to win about 45% to turn a profit. most successful betters regardless off sport are underdog betters. they didn't build vegas laying chalk
 
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Posted: #43
They didn't " build Vegas" on sports bettOrs period.
It only accounts for 1% of their revenue.
 
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Posted: #44
D Backs are hitting .260 this year off of lefties. 8-12 record wise but Colorado away from Coors field is a scary bet. Both pitchers are gas cans but Colorado just not hitting or scoring runs right now
 
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Posted: #45
1% of billions doesn't build anything o wise one?
 
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Posted: #46
Like with Oakland yesterday. I think Vegas set line high for a reason despite the Rockies pitcher having a 7-2 record when he pitches
 
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Posted: #47
SLOTS AND TABLE GAMES, JUNIOR.
 
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Posted: #48
Key
How do you like Garza and the Brewers against the home team in Phi
 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by rpk9791:

D Backs are hitting .260 this year off of lefties. 8-12 record wise but Colorado away from Coors field is a scary bet. Both pitchers are gas cans but Colorado just not hitting or scoring runs right now
I don't really care about "this year", they have not given a quality offensive effort versus lefty in 5 straight and only 5 times in the last 15 tries. 1.91 offensive earned runs per 9 over the last 33 innings versus lefty starters.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
 
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Posted: #50
KEY

Much respect for the way you conduct your business....and your handicapping ain't bad either

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