*note, I have lost two, 2 unit plays. If I had discipline I'd be at -1.36 with a sub .500 record, 3 games under. Math that out. In the long run this is how to beat the books. Eventually.
Posted last night:
Pirates ML(-118) *1.25/1.06
Marquez/Chandler listed
Reds@Marlins O8(-115) *1.00/.87
Williamson/Junk listed
Someone likes the under in Miami, juice has flipped to the under. Perhaps the Marlins long day in NY is the reason. I believe that the Reds landed in Miami before the Marlins did.
There's a K prop that looks good today. I may get into that mess again.
Good Luck
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
10-13 (-3.36)
3-2 +1.22 yesterday
*note, I have lost two, 2 unit plays. If I had discipline I'd be at -1.36 with a sub .500 record, 3 games under. Math that out. In the long run this is how to beat the books. Eventually.
Posted last night:
Pirates ML(-118) *1.25/1.06
Marquez/Chandler listed
Reds@Marlins O8(-115) *1.00/.87
Williamson/Junk listed
Someone likes the under in Miami, juice has flipped to the under. Perhaps the Marlins long day in NY is the reason. I believe that the Reds landed in Miami before the Marlins did.
There's a K prop that looks good today. I may get into that mess again.
That is interesting. Big favorite to record 5 k's, but a big dog to record 6. Can any linemaker or bettor really handicap a K-prop that close? If he lands exactly on 5 I may lose my mind, and I can't afford what little I have left!
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
@undermysac
Casey Mize O4.5 K's(-158) *1.00/.63
Casey Mize O5.5 K's(+134) *.50/.67
************
That is interesting. Big favorite to record 5 k's, but a big dog to record 6. Can any linemaker or bettor really handicap a K-prop that close? If he lands exactly on 5 I may lose my mind, and I can't afford what little I have left!
I just can't call the Padres the better team right now, for multiple reasons. The only good thing they have is a bullpen, although the Pirates isn't too shaby either.
I'd be shocked if Marquez pulls off a good game. The dude has been through the gauntlet of injuries and hasn't been right in quite some time.
Chandler is young, not a lot of innings like you said. Non of the Padres have seen him so that's a one up. He does need to walk less batters for sure.
I'm riding the Pirates win streak, got on it early enough to not jump off.
1
@KingScorpio
Always a hard contrarian stance, I appreciate it.
I just can't call the Padres the better team right now, for multiple reasons. The only good thing they have is a bullpen, although the Pirates isn't too shaby either.
I'd be shocked if Marquez pulls off a good game. The dude has been through the gauntlet of injuries and hasn't been right in quite some time.
Chandler is young, not a lot of innings like you said. Non of the Padres have seen him so that's a one up. He does need to walk less batters for sure.
I'm riding the Pirates win streak, got on it early enough to not jump off.
Yea these K props are tight as can be, always have been. The books rarely move the #, rather the juice. I'd be lying if I said it's easy to thread the needle on these.
In the past, I've noticed that all the early $ was usually sharp $. Then when the public starts piling on later in the day, it'd be an easy decision to bet it the other way and hope for the best.
There's no worse feeling than riding an O5.5 that's -170 or worse, when the true odds are -115 or so.
If there's any silver lining, I really don't have to track umpire tendencies anymore. The challenge rules have been going smoothly for the mlb so far.
0
@KeyElement
Yea these K props are tight as can be, always have been. The books rarely move the #, rather the juice. I'd be lying if I said it's easy to thread the needle on these.
In the past, I've noticed that all the early $ was usually sharp $. Then when the public starts piling on later in the day, it'd be an easy decision to bet it the other way and hope for the best.
There's no worse feeling than riding an O5.5 that's -170 or worse, when the true odds are -115 or so.
If there's any silver lining, I really don't have to track umpire tendencies anymore. The challenge rules have been going smoothly for the mlb so far.
Your money, your choice, of course, but it looks risky as hell to me. An injury or bad day for your pitcher you could lose both bets in the blink of an eye.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
@undermysac
Your money, your choice, of course, but it looks risky as hell to me. An injury or bad day for your pitcher you could lose both bets in the blink of an eye.
Looks like a good opportunity to fade the O's AAA call up. Brandon Young is 27, spending most of his career in the minors. Last year he threw 57 innings with the O's with not much impressive stuff at all to be proud of.
Taylor for the Sox is a bullpen guy who's been real good. It'll be his 3rd time used as an "opener" so the role is nothing new to him. If anyone watched any LSU baseball you know that this guy is the real deal. The only thing not allowing him to start now is an injury in his last year of college. The Sox are playing it slow with him, he'll eventually stretch out to be a starter that they need.
The Sox have hit the tar out of the ball in the 1st 3 innings this year hitting .279/.835, with the 3rd best sOPS+ in the league. And that's vs traditional starting pitchers, not aaa call ups.
Baltimore is favored by -135 for the full game. Not surprising. Their run differential is -9 while the Sox is -24. The Sox bullpen is a dumpster fire, and the O's is average. The Sox have not hit well late in ball games, one of the worst in the league.
Good Luck
0
White Sox 1st 3 ML(-115) *1.00/.87
Young/Taylor listed
Looks like a good opportunity to fade the O's AAA call up. Brandon Young is 27, spending most of his career in the minors. Last year he threw 57 innings with the O's with not much impressive stuff at all to be proud of.
Taylor for the Sox is a bullpen guy who's been real good. It'll be his 3rd time used as an "opener" so the role is nothing new to him. If anyone watched any LSU baseball you know that this guy is the real deal. The only thing not allowing him to start now is an injury in his last year of college. The Sox are playing it slow with him, he'll eventually stretch out to be a starter that they need.
The Sox have hit the tar out of the ball in the 1st 3 innings this year hitting .279/.835, with the 3rd best sOPS+ in the league. And that's vs traditional starting pitchers, not aaa call ups.
Baltimore is favored by -135 for the full game. Not surprising. Their run differential is -9 while the Sox is -24. The Sox bullpen is a dumpster fire, and the O's is average. The Sox have not hit well late in ball games, one of the worst in the league.
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