Mon (6/10): "The Good, the Bad, the Ugly"

Question

I took Sunday off to clear my head after an awful Friday/Saturday. You know what they say: "When it rains, it pours." The good news is that I am pretty sure that I have finally hit rock bottom -- which means it can only get better from here, right? Let's get 'em today!

The Good:

LAA (-130)

In Weaver’s last 4 starts vs. BAL going back to 9/18/11, Weaver is 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA in 29.2 IP. Since his return from the DL, Weaver has a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 12 K/BB ratio in 12 IP. Garcia defeated LAA 5-4 earlier this year, but unfortunately for him, I don’t see Weaver allowing more than 3 runs in this match-up. Here are some notable splits for Garcia vs. LAA batters à Aybar 6 for 11 (.545), Callaspo 6 for 18 (.333), Hamilton 4 for 12 (.333), Kendrick 5 for 12 (.417), Trout 3 for 8 (.375).

TAM (-129)

Cobb is 4-0 at HOME and has a .173 BAA vs. BOS. Lackey got hit hard earlier this season @ TB for 5 ER on 9 H in just 4.1 IP.

The Bad: Fading CWS vs. Dickey (TOR), Fister (DET) vs. KC

TOR (-127)

Dickey shutout CWS in his 6 IP, allowing just 2 hits with a 7 K/BB ratio, 0.50 WHIP, and .105 BAA. He is also coming off a solid shutout @ SFO. TOR had a .304 BAA vs. Axelrod in the earlier match-up. In Axelrod’s 3 career starts, he has a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP vs. TOR. Despite their little 2-game winning streak, CWS is still just 3-10 in their last 13 games.

KC (+125)

Guthrie is 5-3 vs. DET In 11 career starts with a .273 BAA. He is also 4-1 at HOME this season with a 2.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .205 BAA. Fister is just 2-3 in 7 career starts vs. KC with a 3.97 ERA. DET has lost 4 of Fister’s last 5 AWAY starts, and 5 of Fister’s last 6 starts overall. KC has quietly won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 10.

The Ugly: Fading Lindblom (TEX), Kershaw (LAD)

CLE (+126)

Kazmir is 6-3 lifetime vs. TEX with a 2.87 ERA and .235 BAA. Lindblom got rocked in his last start at home and could not get himself out of the 5^th inning, resulting in his current 7.71 ERA after just 4.2 IP. CLE seizes this fine opportunity to snap their 7-game losing streak.

ARI (+183)

Kershaw is just 7-6 in 16 career starts vs. ARI. LAD has lost Kershaw’s last 4 starts in this series. Notable splits for Kershaw vs. ARI batters à Bloomquist 4 for 10 (.400), Parra 5 for 16 (.313), Pollock 3 for 10 (.300). Miley is 3-1 in 5 career starts vs. LAD and won earlier this year, 3-2. LAD is just 2-5 when Kershaw starts vs. NL West teams this season.

"Trouble With the Curve": O/U Play of the Day

BOS/TB U8

The total has been OVER 8 just once in Lackey's last 10 starts. Cobb has a 1.91 ERA at HOME and is 5 for 5 in quality starts vs. AL East this year.

rmb5w · Answer

I took Sunday off to clear my head after an awful Friday/Saturday. You know what they say: "When it rains, it pours." The good news is that I am pretty sure that I have finally hit rock bottom -- which means it can only get better from here, right? Let's get 'em today!

The Good:

LAA (-130)

In Weaver’s last 4 starts vs. BAL going back to 9/18/11, Weaver is 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA in 29.2 IP. Since his return from the DL, Weaver has a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 12 K/BB ratio in 12 IP. Garcia defeated LAA 5-4 earlier this year, but unfortunately for him, I don’t see Weaver allowing more than 3 runs in this match-up. Here are some notable splits for Garcia vs. LAA batters à Aybar 6 for 11 (.545), Callaspo 6 for 18 (.333), Hamilton 4 for 12 (.333), Kendrick 5 for 12 (.417), Trout 3 for 8 (.375).

TAM (-129)

Cobb is 4-0 at HOME and has a .173 BAA vs. BOS. Lackey got hit hard earlier this season @ TB for 5 ER on 9 H in just 4.1 IP.

The Bad: Fading CWS vs. Dickey (TOR), Fister (DET) vs. KC

TOR (-127)

Dickey shutout CWS in his 6 IP, allowing just 2 hits with a 7 K/BB ratio, 0.50 WHIP, and .105 BAA. He is also coming off a solid shutout @ SFO. TOR had a .304 BAA vs. Axelrod in the earlier match-up. In Axelrod’s 3 career starts, he has a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP vs. TOR. Despite their little 2-game winning streak, CWS is still just 3-10 in their last 13 games.

KC (+125)

Guthrie is 5-3 vs. DET In 11 career starts with a .273 BAA. He is also 4-1 at HOME this season with a 2.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .205 BAA. Fister is just 2-3 in 7 career starts vs. KC with a 3.97 ERA. DET has lost 4 of Fister’s last 5 AWAY starts, and 5 of Fister’s last 6 starts overall. KC has quietly won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 10.

The Ugly: Fading Lindblom (TEX), Kershaw (LAD)

CLE (+126)

Kazmir is 6-3 lifetime vs. TEX with a 2.87 ERA and .235 BAA. Lindblom got rocked in his last start at home and could not get himself out of the 5^th inning, resulting in his current 7.71 ERA after just 4.2 IP. CLE seizes this fine opportunity to snap their 7-game losing streak.

ARI (+183)

Kershaw is just 7-6 in 16 career starts vs. ARI. LAD has lost Kershaw’s last 4 starts in this series. Notable splits for Kershaw vs. ARI batters à Bloomquist 4 for 10 (.400), Parra 5 for 16 (.313), Pollock 3 for 10 (.300). Miley is 3-1 in 5 career starts vs. LAD and won earlier this year, 3-2. LAD is just 2-5 when Kershaw starts vs. NL West teams this season.

"Trouble With the Curve": O/U Play of the Day

BOS/TB U8

The total has been OVER 8 just once in Lackey's last 10 starts. Cobb has a 1.91 ERA at HOME and is 5 for 5 in quality starts vs. AL East this year.

cashaholic · Answer

Wow I love all your plays unreal I have the same card and leans in front of me but will narrow mine down to 2-3 plays

AllIDoisWin28 · Answer

&#x2B;1

rmb5w · Answer

That has to be a good omen, right?  I&#x27;m doing a (1U) 3-team parlay of the FAVEs LAA/TB/TOR and (1U) straight bets on all 7.  I&#x27;m feeling some plus money going into Tuesday...

Copag07 · Answer

I see the stars aligning from afar!

CoronaPicks · Answer

RMBDude....I love how you roll.  I check you post every day.  Very informative, You are obviously a very dedicated stat oriented person.  Teams though are not just stats....they are personalities. Think of every team as a woman.  How does she handle a loss? What happens when she gets pissed off?  How does she travel?  How does she feel about herself?  How is her confidence?  These are not stats.  Combine the two teams personalities and then add the stats....now you mean business:)Just my thoughtsThanks so much for your posts, they are a great piece of the puzzle that I am not good at:)Wish you the best luck tomorrow with you picsCorona:)

CoronaPicks · Answer

I got thinking about my post tonight on your thread. I actually got out of bed and came downstairs to post this!

You are a stat guy.....that is awesome. I can tell you I am not a stat guy. I win money on MLB though. I understand the X factor (or personality) factor of the sport. I have been winning money at it for some time.

My point is....if we combined our efforts we could crush the books. I send you my pics then you crunch the numbers.... we take the winners.... I bet we kill it!!

I will admit I have only been posting for a week now but my records speaks. If you are unsure give it this season.....see my record. Then next season we combine forces. We move to vegas and retire LOL

Corona

steve2412 · Answer

There is no doubt you had a great run last month and you provide great info backing your picks, sadly after comparing both of our cards we only match up on 1 which is TOR. and were opo on almost all, Im liking- LAD,DET, and BALT. With balt i just cant back the halos this season and since they have weaver and making the small tune ups hopefully they play a little better then what they have but after watching the bats of BALT wake up today, i really dont like the halos. Weaver is hittable.

Det is just in another league compare to KC, I understand the numbers give KC a great chance but with two teams like this i have a hard time backing the weaker one.

LAD had the puig factor now, and this guy is showing off early! the kid has a cannon for an arm and a lead pipe for a bat, and hitting is contagious. a couple runs is all that is needed when kershaw is on the mound.

But BOL

rmb5w · Answer

Thank you for your thoughts.  When I select my picks, I do somewhat take into account the "x-factors."  I picked the CLE game because I felt like CLE needs to snap their losing streak.  KC is rolling right now, so I think they can upset DET who may come into the first game of their road trip overconfident.  LAA is coming off getting rocked by BOS in the previous series, and will want to run up the score on another team -- Garcia seems like the best candidate.  Dickey is feeling pretty good after just shutting out the Giants @ SF.  Lackey will be going into TB a little anxious, understanding that his only bad outing this season was @ TB.  Cobb knows that he can pitch lights out at home, so I predict a repeat performance of the last match-up by both pitchers.Even though I don&#x27;t post "x-factors," I do take other things into account when I select games to post.  I just do not add that to my stats because it is more subjective.  I do value your opinions though.  Thanks for taking the time to post on my thread!

CoronaPicks · Answer

Thanks rmb....good too hear. If you can take the two and combine them you have a deadly money making weapon. The stats should always back up the X factor though...not the other way around.

Regarding you post though,...keep in mind KC has been rolling but against Hou??....that's not rolling! That's playing the game against a crap team and winning by chance. As for overconfidence....There is only one thing worse for an MLB team than overconfidence and that's false confidence. Det kills KC tomorrow.

Just my thoughts.....

Corona

rmb5w · Answer

Guthrie has already proven that he has the capability to defeat teams that KC should not be able to defeat with his wins @ BOS, @ BAL, and @ STL.  He is also still undefeated (2-0) against teams in his division:  9-0 W vs. CLE, 2-0 W vs. CWS.  I&#x27;m not guaranteeing a win vs. DET tomorrow, but I&#x27;m also far from being sold on DET as a lock to win @ KC.  I guess that&#x27;s why they play the games.  Good luck to you!

CoronaPicks · Answer

This is where stats meets team personality.

I love it!! I respect your stats man..this will be a fun outcome to watch. If KC wins or can even keep it close I will be the first to tip my hat to your capping style. I think it will be 7 to 2 for DET.

Let the fun begin! GL

target_9 · Answer

GL tonight!!! &#xD;&#xA;T-9

AVENTADOR · Answer

Lets get it bro! I&#39;m going with you on this. Lets cash in today!

football_007 · Answer

Lackey has 9 career starts at Tampa, none has gone lower than 8 ( 2 games at 8 )

Getme22 · Answer

I love the stats bro.  Any thoughts on if the Reds bounce back today and get a win playing the Cubs on the road?

allidoisparlay · Answer

Let&#x27;s make money today. Gonna parlay some of your picks. Bol

marcus_33_85 · Answer

gl rmb

rmb5w · Answer

Yeah, but...Lackey has not had an ERA below 3.25 this late into the season since 2008.  In 2008 (1.83 ERA), he held TB to 2 runs.  In 2007, he held TB to 1 run twice (once with a 2.35 ERA, the other with a 3.13 ERA).  In 2006 (2.69 ERA), he pitched a shutout.  Even when Lackey had his 5-run meltdown at the bottom of the 4th inning in the earlier match-up this year, neither team manufactured any more runs and the UNDER 8 pushed.  I will gladly take a push on this.Not that this factored into my pick last night, but I was curious after you brought it to my attention so I looked it up:  the consensus picks are leaning 60% towards the UNDER.

rmb5w · Answer

CIN bullpen will probably still be rattled after that horrific finish giving up 9 runs to STL after Arroyo held them to just 2 runs in the first 6 innings.CIN has not won a Homer Bailey AWAY start against a team other than MIA this season (0-5).  Bailey has a 5.11 ERA in his 6 AWAY starts.  Feldman is 4-1 in HOME starts this season with a 1.64 ERA and .207 BAA.  CHC is averaging 7.8 runs/game in Feldman&#x27;s 5 HOME starts, scoring at least 6 runs in each of them (including scoring 6 runs vs. SFO and 9 runs vs. TEX).Hmmm, I may have convinced myself into playing CHC today...

whisperman · Answer

Thanks for all your valuable info and good luck with your plays. I notice when you were hot you were posting your record daily..how does your overall record stand just for reference?

rmb5w · Answer

I&#x27;m regressing back to the mean.  Super hot May, Super low first week of June.  So I&#x27;m about .500 again.

whisperman · Answer

This is definitely a game of streaks..here is to a bounce back week..

Getme22 · Answer

Thanks for the insight ??

Mon (6/10): "The Good, the Bad, the Ugly"

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