MLB TODAY PLAYOFF PLAYS (9/30)

I will be starting to post playoff plays as I did a couple of years ago with great success.  I've had to lay off wagering on baseball for some years only to have that "expire" and so I jumped back in just after all star break.  All I did was lose out the gate, even posting losers, in a sport I have worked within a sports book on so it was quite puzzling.  I thought maybe all my knowledge was outdated, which it was to some degree.  So I switched some things, abandoning the UNDERS that used to always cash and seeing the changes that were made in MLB, shifted more towards OVERS, which also changes come playoff time, which is now, obviously.

Of particular note, do NOT forget that wildcard series are the best out of 3.  This is important because teams that drop the first game have a serious uphill struggle, so none of these sides will want to start of at a disadvantage.  Also of note, the FIRST game played in the wildcard round has tended to go over the total.  Which creates a bit of uneasiness for me given I had liked the UNDER between the Tigers and Guardians.

I'm going to weigh in on all games below and highlight the plays obviously.  I will keep the record for the playoffs and every big play is counted as two units to the record.  Having said that, these are my thoughts:

DETROIT v. CLEVELAND:  These teams JUST squared off and the Guardians did quite a number on the Tigers.  The matchup today even is a rematch which Skubal had previously lost.  He's pitching on 6 days rest and the Tigers are sublime when that happens.  But he's lost his last 3 starts and is being opposed by Gavin Williams, whom himself has been on a torrid run.  Moreover, Williams is really great during the day.  The total of 6 is pretty tough because there are so many ways I can see this game staying under but then you also have the bullpens or any extra innings with the low number.  The Gurardians have beaten the Tigers of late, have home field advantage, and won the season series yet they are underdogs in this series.  I am playing:  GUARDIANS TO WIN THE SERIES.  Just too many factors working for the Guardians and if they get through Skubal today, I'm certainly not fearing Flaherty or Mize to salvage the Tigers sinking hopes.  

SAN DIEGO v. CHICAGO:  This is a play out the gate on the UNDER 7 (SD/CHI)...BIG PLAY!!! as I think this is a super solid spot.  Matthew Boyd is an unworldly 12-1 at home with a sub 3 ERA and is just as good during the day.  Pivetta, while not quite as lethal on the road, is also a very strong day pitcher (2.34 ERA in day games).  I know the Cubs just started hitting a bit, but key word there is "a bit".  The Padres took out not winning the division on the Diamondbacks, who really just didn't care and rolled over.  Furthermore, the Padres are a shell of themselves on the road, especially in the hitting department.  This game should play out like a normal day game in Chicago when the wind is NOT blowing out.  It will be a tight playoff game and both pitchers have been EXCELLENT in their postseason experience.  Forget the dead arms out of the bullpen, it's the playoffs so those guys will be watching not pitching.  Strong play for me here as I also see the Cubbies taking the first game.

Have to get this out now then continue with the final game as the site has limits on how long we can make our postings.

  Good luck LA.  

BOSTON v. NEW YORK:  Well this will be yet another in the historic matchup of these two franchises.  But this is a really tough game and Max Fried has been every bit unhittable vs. the Red Sox as Crochet has been.  Of course, it will be wild to watch Aaron Judge in the postseason again but the Red Sox are a far cry on the road from the team they are playing in Fenway.  They did win the season series and are 7-3 over the past 10 vs. the Yankees but I think this line is a bit of a gift with the Yankees at home where they crush in the playoffs.  I like Crochet, can see an under, but the Yankees will know how important it is to get the first game with Rodon following Fried.  I took the Yankees last night at -130 and so this is a play for me today...NEW YORK YANKEES (-135)

CINCINNATI v. LAD:  Another similar game in that the pitching matchup is sound.  But I think the Reds are lucky to be in this position, much like the Diamondbacks a few years ago.  We saw what happened with AZ when they limped in and I'm not sure the Reds can create that type of chaos, but the Dodgers bullpen is a real issue that needs to be considered.  Both of these guys, Hunter Greene and Blake Snell, have been pitching lights out.  But Greene is just 2-3 with a 4.81 ERA on the road compared to Snell, who is 5-1 with a 1.17 ERA at home.  Also to add, the LAD hit fast balls extremely well which is what Greene relies on.  The Dodgers will be ready, and so am I.  Going to take my own advice and not chance the Dodgers bullpen but this game could get over the total once they get to that point.  I'll have already cashed by then:  LOS ANGELES DODGERS FH (- 1/2)...BIG PLAY!!!

That is it for today, here is the recap:

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS TO WIN SERIES (+115)

UNDER 7 (SD/CHI)...BIG PLAY!!!

NEW YORK YANKEES (-135)

LAD FH (- 1/2)...BIG PLAY!!!

I'll try to check back later but also a full slate with Champions League in action.  I've been crushing soccer so thinking about combining some of my efforts between the two sports.  As always, keep comments positive, tail or fade, good luck to all...

@Cranky_Hank

Thanks buddy.  To both of us.  Let's kill the playoffs 

You don’t bet Cle but bet them win series?

@LAGameofInches

Thanks for taking the time on these LA. I see it your way for the most part but on the first two at least see some great opportunities where the NRFI play is concerned (though I know that as a rule you consider these bets to be flashy shiny toys). I hit both of these games NRFI hard so we'll see!  

@LAGameofInches

@Brewmeister

I like the NRFI too but they are juiced so high it's hard to make a claim for taking them.

@Seahawks14

Yes, I believe skubal is their best path forward and he obviously is throwing today.  I am going more against the Detroit bullpen and the subsequent hurlers for both teams, where I think the Guardians have a serious advantage.  These games tend to go UNDER for years in fact so that would mean, with the added playoff nerves and Detroits inability to score of late, especially on the road, a close game.  So if Detroit does win, I still have a couple left and yes, the series prices would be more attractive.  BUT, if Cleveland were to win, those series prices would shoot up and I just don't see Mize as a solid option and Helton is injured (indifferent about Flaherty)

@LAGameofInches

Copy. Thanks.

@Cranky_Hank

 Agree if guardians way out skubal today they got a good chance to sweep this series. Tigers cant lose and win. Guards could lose and win.

@Brooklyncapper

We are now going to face that exact scenario.  Can't believe the rabbit that Vest pulled out of his hat in the 9th.  That being said, good strike on your UNDER.  

BIG PLAY WINNER!!!

UNDER 7 (SD/CHC)...BIG PLAY!!! 

Really easy play with both of those pitchers on the mound.  I think more of the same with Crochet and Fried though I'd side more with the FH UNDER than the FG Under.  Thinking of adding that play as well but I'm already pretty big on the Yankees.  Just feel with the earlyish start some shadows will make it hard to pick up the ball over the first few innings.

GL  on your plays @LAGameofInches 

Thx for posting LAG you are a legit stand up contributor here, laid off the det game tailing the rest whoop$...luv reading and learning and you BRING IT,,,Thx!!

Ok, I'll toot my own horn .

Solid start, already eyeing a game tomorrow.

YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS):  4-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 2-0)

Happy to see a lot people have had profitable nights.  

@LAGameofInches