MLB Sunday 9/6

88-62-2

+4.52u Sept

Reds +1.5 -105
Pirates -1.5 +110
Braves ML -107
Orioles ML +125
Marlins ML +125
Rangers ML -110
Padres ML -102

I personally took some time off yesterday and just spent time with wife and kids. I hope that was enough to reset my brain to get back on the grind today. So  back to the regular programing, 1u per game 6-8% of daily bankroll is exposed. Incase I get swept again like last Friday I'd be down 2-3% on my monthly bankroll and I hope to avoid that as much as possible. Won 2-0 on CFB yesterday and made a little bit profit, waiting for 2 more games today taking Notre Dame and Ole Miss spreads. 

Feeling fresh today! Main play is the Pirates. Dont be deceived by Walbert Urena's ERA and pitching stats, he is horrible on the road going 1-7 this season and on the games when he started for the Angels, the run difference was > 3.7 runs Angels trailing and gasping for life. Also, for the love of God I think Paul Skenes will get his shit together today or he will not have a team to for pitch next season. 

good luck and happy Sunday! 

@Way2Good

 Bol today

@Way2Good

 I'm rolling with you.

@Way2Good

@chicubs09

 Let’s get it my Guy??????

@Way2Good

@Way2Good

 I have to agree with you on Skenes. This just feels like a game that he should get 10 or more strikeouts. Best of luck today.

Skenes' days splits: 4.94 ERA, .273 BA. That's what keeps me off the Bucs this morning, plus they have no PAs vs. Urena.

BOL,

RT2

@gotime

 Everyone and their mother is just fading him Straight up past 8-10 games and the pirates are in the perfect spot to turn that around today. They can easily exploit Urena even if skenes will not be on top shape. If they can contain the angels first 5 then I think they can easily cover this run line.

@RebelTell2

 I agree. His stats is really off lately but it is much harder to back the Angels. They are playing for nothing at this point, Ureña is a liability on the road, their bats are hit or miss. So my angle is paul skenes about to break the curve of his pitching and pirates needing a win to stay on the hunt for the wild card. 

@Way2Good

Reds +1.5 dropped to -140?????? Am I on to something here? Lol While odds shopping earlier the most I saw was -120 at BetMGM. 

T-60mins from the first pitch the line is moving in favor of the reds? Moneyline now at +115 against the top team of the National League? 

@Way2Good

 Probably won't even be a season next year or just a very short one. Living here watching all his games his fastball that rides up out the zone they still cant hit even with lower velo. He is just putting to many over the plate & hitters started being more selective in what they swing at now when he goes. With our offense its feast or faminine & i think he has been trying to be to perfect with pitches. 

The Angels are 1-12 since March 28th on the road vs. a team they defeated yesterday. Back-to-back road wins vs. the same team is not something they can pull off. The only time they did it was on June 20th and 21st at Sutter Health Park vs. the Triple A's.

9 of those 12 losses were by more than one run.

@MrBator

 Hell yea! Thanks Mr.B! I’m gonna pound this Pirates run line more like I’m a college frat boy again.

@Way2Good

 Reds doing damage to a hungover Kyle Harrison. 

I’m on Pit -1.5, let’s go Skeenes and Pirates offense! We need this WINNER  guys

Gambling gods sent you a message for celebrating early in Reds game

Pirates are 37-24 in Day games and 24-14 in Interleague this year

@KingScorpio

 you can talk to your gambling god again and check in to me after the 5th inning

@Way2Good

Nothing matters until the game is over

You’ve had a good second half and you seem like you know what you’re talking about. I’ve had a couple 0-7 days in my gambling career that’s exactly why I play one game a day, two at the absolute max. I know plenty of high-volume guys who do great too. Continued success.

@LVTruck

 Thank you my friend. you did great on cfb yesterday!

My approach can be unconventional but I treat my betting as like  daily trading. By end of every month anything above 10u gain is a solid win for me, thinking I beat the bank or any investment index in the market. I make a reset on my units every start of the month as well. This approach has been effective for me for the past 5 years as it made me take the research side seriously since my regular unit can be big. 

I used to bet on the fly and it has cost me a lot of money. Learning from the scars of our past, we now know how to approach a war and not just fight a battle.

A friend of mine runs a crew that probably bets 100 games a week. They’re not waiting on lineups they’re betting the edge they perceive in the number, shopping for 10 or 15 cents of value, and they do it for a living. There are definitely multiple ways to attack this shit. There’s no realistic way to follow every one of their plays at that volume, but they do well. Their biggest obstacle is finding accounts that don’t get limited or shut down.

@LVTruck

 When I used to play 1-2 games a day then I got limited on DraftKings but yes I agree any difference on closing value is an advantage and eventually all you will see is numbers regardless who is playing who, now that I do this approach I get to use 4-5 books but mainly BetMGM. I throw in a couple of stupid parlays with the intention to lose too just to disrupt the algorithm on my account. I do reach 100 games a week when NBA,MLB,NFL is on full swing and it can really be devastating when I get hit with a rough day but most of the time it can be very profitable. When those 3 leagues play in full swing I increase my exposure to 10-15u/day. Now with only MLB, I play around 40-50 games/week or 40-50 trades/week. If I win 30% of that at higher value than usual then that is profit.