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MLB stuff for July 15 - 18

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Captain
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Posted: #26
 
Legend
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Posted: #27
Sunday, July 18. American League:
 
DET: Andy Oliver L (0-3, 6.38) A have never faced the Indians.
CLE: Justin Masterson R (3-8, 5.31) A+ is 0-1 w/a 5.93 ERA in four games (two starts) against the Tigers.
Ephemerides note: Oliver _, Masterson good
Run support for Oliver: 4.37 through four starts
Run support for Masterson: 3.99
Tigers' BA against Masterson: .265 (small sample)
Indians' BA against Oliver: NA
Oliver's day/night splits: negligible
Masterson's day/night ERA: 3.36/4.92
 
TB: David Price L (12-4, 2.42) C+ is 2-0 w/a 2.56 ERA in five games (four starts) against the Yankees.
NYY: Andy Pettitte L (11-2, 2.70) C- is 16-6 w/a 4.01 ERA in a bunch of starts against the Rays.
Ephemerides note: Price ^MEcME good, Pettitte good
Run support for Price: 5.62
Run support for Pettitte: 5.92
TB's BA against Pettitte: .292
NYY's BA against Price: .151 from 86 at-bats
Price's day/night splits: great pitcher overall and even better numbers in day starts
Pettitte's day/night splits: negligible
 
TEX: C.J. Wilson L (7-5, 3.35) B+ is 1-1 w/a 1.56 ERA in thirteen games (one start) against the Red Sox.
BOS: Jon Lester L (11-3, 2.78) B+ is 2-0 w/a 3.55 ERA in five starts against the Rangers.
Ephemerides note: Wilson ^SUtSU ^SUtUR $$$$ lucky, Lester _VEsVE
Run support for Wilson: 4.75
Run support for Lester: 5.64
TEX's BA against Lester: .264
BOS's BA against Wilson: .191
Wilson's day/night splits: better numbers in night starts
Lester's day/night splits: negligible
Lean: Rangers
 
TOR: Shaun Marcum R (7-4, 3.44) B+ is 2-2 w/a 5.08 ERA in twelve games (ten starts) against the Orioles.
BAL: Brian Matusz L (3-9, 4.77) B+ is 0-1 w/a 16.88 ERA in one start against the Blue Jays.
Ephemerides note: Marcum _, Matusz ^SUtJU good
Run support for Marcum: 5.08
Run support for Matusz: 3.48
TOR's BA against Matusz: negligible
BAL's BA against Marcum: .330
Marcum's day/night splits: negligible
Matusz's day/night splits: slightly better numbers in day starts
 
CWS: Freddy García R (9-3, 4.36) C- is 10-6 w/a 3.70 ERA in twenty starts against the Twins.
MIN: Nick Blackburn R (7-7, 6.40) B- is 6-5 w/approx a 3.62 ERA in twelve starts against the White Sox.
Ephemerides note: García good, Blackburn maybe
Run support for García: 5.26
Run support for Blackburn: 5.63
CWS's BA against Blackburn: .313
MIN's BA against García: .235
García's day/night splits: negligible, but slightly better numbers in day starts
Blackburn's day/night splits: 3.93 w/a 1.26 WHIP/5.02 w/a 1.55 WHIP
Home-plate umpire: Dan Iassogna 6-13 Over-Under
 
OAK: Vin Mazzaro R (4-2, 3.81) B-/C- is 1-0 w/a 5.40 ERA in one start against the Royals.
KC: Brian Bannister R (7-7, 5.56) B- is 1-4 w/a 5.02 ERA in eight starts against the Athletics.
Ephemerides note: Mazzaro _MEsVE no^, Bannister maybe
Run support for Mazzaro: 4.44
Run support for Bannister: 4.04
OAK's BA against Bannister: .318
KC's BA against Mazzaro: negligible
Mazzaro's day/night splits: negligible
Bannister's day/night splits: 3.95 w/a 1.25 WHIP/5.42 w/a 1.47 WHIP
 
SEA: Jason Vargas L (6-4, 3.09) B+ is 2-0 w/a 2.82 ERA in four games (three starts) against the Angels.
LAA: Ervin Santana R (8-7, 3.76) B+ is 7-4 w/a 4.19 ERA in seventeen starts against the Mariners.
Ephemerides note: Vargas _VEsUR, Santana _
Run support for Vargas: 3.20
Run support for Santana: 4.94
SEA's BA against Santana: .283
LAA's BA against Vargas: .265 from 68 at-bats
Vargas' day/night splits: negligible
Santana's day/night splits: much better numbers in night starts
Home-plate umpire: Alfonso Marquez 12-6 Over-Under
 
Captain
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Posted: #28
who do u guys think will win the cws n minnesota game im leaning more towards the sox...
 
Legend
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Posted: #29

Blackburn is much better at home. Freddy Garcia is a money machine. There's no point in fading Garcia; either to bet for him or just stay away.

System trends says to take the Over when you have "lucky" pitchers with low bios. Meaning both pitchers will be hittable and get plenty of run support. But with Dan Iassogna who is 6-13 on the Over-Under, i'll have to refrain. Besides, the new Twins ballpark is somewhat a pitchers' park.

I'm leaning White Sox as well. I'll have to wait for the line-up to make a decision.

 
Captain
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Posted: #30
Thanks Kane the info helps what do you think about the cincy n colorado game I see the stats and ect you have up there but if you know anything else that would help i would appreciate it im leaning more towards cincinnati with wood pitching 2.18 era and if im right i dont think colorado ever faced him and i think thats to their advantage.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #31

Thanks bud.

Will be looking for your thread tomorrow.

 
All-Star
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Posted: #32
good stuff co-kane
 
Rookie
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Posted: #33
Hey Kane, where do you go to find such early umpire assignments for the games? Thanks
 
Captain
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Posted: #34
LETS GO WHITE SOXS!!!!!!   
 
Legend
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Posted: #35
Sunday, July 18. National League:
 
COL: Aaron Cook R (3-5, 4.88) A is 2-0 w/a 5.12 ERA in eight games (seven starts) against the Reds.
CIN: Travis Wood L (0-0, 2.18) B-/C- is new.
Ephemerides note: Cook _MEoMA, Wood fair
Run support for Cook: 4.94
Run support for Wood: 3.30 through three starts
Rockies' BA against Wood: NA
CIN's BA against Cook: .385
Cook's day/night splits: negligible
Cook's 2010 home/away splits: 3.25 w/a 1.23 WHIP/6.70 w/a 1.77 WHIP
Wood's day/night splits: negligible
 
WAS: Craig Stammen R (2-3, 5.79) C- is 0-1 w/a 6.11 ERA in four starts against the Marlins.
FLA: Alejandro Sanabia R (0-1, 3.09) B+ is new.
Ephemerides note: Stammen _MEsSA, Sanabia good
Run support for Stammen: 4.66
Run support for Sanabia: NA
WAS's BA against Sanabia: NA
FLA's BA against Stammen: .333 from 48 at-bats
Stammen's day/night splits: negligible
Pick: Marlins
 
HOU: Roy Oswalt R (6-10, 3.08) B+ is 15-7 w/approx a 2.50 ERA in twenty-seven starts against the Pirates.
PIT: Paul Maholm L (5-7, 4.37) C- is 8-5 w/a 3.90 ERA in fourteen starts against the Astros.
Ephemerides note: Oswalt _, Maholm good
Run support for Oswalt: 2.51
Run support for Maholm: 3.52
HOU's BA against Maholm: .223
PIT's BA against Oswalt: .181
Oswalt's day/night splits: negligible
Maholm's day/night splits: bad numbers & a losing record in day games; 5.08 w/a 1.56 WHIP/3.95 w/a 1.37 WHIP
 
MIL: Manny Parra L (3-6, 4.65) C+ is 0-1 w/a 7.71 ERA in four games (two starts) against the Braves.
ATL: Derek Lowe R (9-8, 4.35) C- is 4-1 w/a 3.34 ERA in ten games (eight starts) against the Brewers.
Ephemerides note: Parra _, Lowe _MAsSA no^
Run support for Parra: 4.95
Run support for Lowe: 4.69
MIL's BA against Lowe: .286
ATL's BA against Parra: .362 (small sample)
Parra's & Lowe's day/night splits: both negligible
 
LAD: Vicente Padilla R (4-2, 4.04) B-/C+ is 2-1 w/a 3.68 ERA in seven games (three starts) against the Cardinals.
STL: Jeff Suppan R (0-5, 6.55) B+ is 4-4 w/a 4.02 ERA in twelve games (ten starts) against the Dodgers.
Ephemerides note: Padilla fair, Suppan ^MEtMA _VEsNE
Run support for Padilla: 6.12
Run support for Suppan: 2.90
LAD's BA against Suppan: .275
STL's BA against Padilla: .351 (very small sample)
Padilla's day/night splits: slightly better numbers in day starts
Suppan's day/night splits: negligible
 
ARI: Edwin Jackson R (6-7, 4.92) A is 0-2 w/a 5.31 ERA in six games (four starts) against the Padres.
SD: Kevin Correia R (5-6, 5.26) C- is 3-6 w/a 3.60 ERA in twenty appearances (eleven starts) against the Diamondbacks.
Ephemerides note: Jackson $$ lucky, Correia ^SU*SA maybe
Run support for Jackson: 4.56
Run support for Correia: 5.63
ARI's BA against Correia: .260
SD's BA against Jackson: .172 (small sample)
Jackson's & Correia's day/night splits: both have slightly better numbers in night starts
 
NYM: Johan Santana L (7-5, 2.98) C- is 2-0 w/a 3.89 ERA in six games (five starts) against the Giants.
SF: Jonathan Sánchez L (7-6, 3.47) B+ is 2-1 w/a 4.18 ERA in seven games (five starts) against the Mets.
Ephemerides note: Santana _VEcSA _, Sánchez good
Run support for Santana: 2.82
Run support for Sánchez: 5.00
Mets' BA against Sánchez: .282
Giants' BA against Santana: .264
Santana's & Sánchez's day/night splits: both negligible 
Pick: Giants
 
PHI: Roy Halladay R (10-7, 2.19) C- is 0-2 w/a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the Cubs.
CHC: Tom Gorzelanny L (4-5, 3.16) B- is 1-1 w/a 3.86 ERA in two starts against the Phillies.
Ephemerides note: Halladay good, Gorzellany $ lucky
Run support for Halladay: 3.84
Run support for Gorzellany: 4.21
PHI's BA against Gorzellany: negligible
CHC's BA against Halladay: .277
Lean: Over
 
Legend
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Posted: #36
The ratings are color-coded for a reason.
 
COOL COLORS = lucky/good aspects/alignments
WARM COLORS = unlucky/bad aspects/alignments
 
This is my 2nd year of charting and keeping track of pitchers' ratings. Generally, a pitcher with cool-colored ratings means that that pitcher will receive good run support. That means --in games where both pitchers have cool-colored ratings -- that game have a good chance of going OVER the total.
 
That also means the opposite holds true. In games where one or both pitchers have warm-colored ratings, that game have a good chance of going UNDER the total.
 
Here are some examples on how to use my ratings to make money. Yeah, i said "make money". At least, keep track of these persistent trends for your own entertainment or some kind of benefit.
 
DET: Andy Oliver L (0-3, 6.38) A
CLE: Justin Masterson R (3-8, 5.31) A+
Ephemerides note: Oliver _, Masterson good
Run support for Oliver: 4.37 through four starts
Run support for Masterson: 3.99
Score: DET 2, CLE 7
Result: Under 10
Note: both pitchers have high bio as evidenced by the A and + (plus sign) rating; meaning one or the other will pitch very well --  Andy Oliver have an unlucky aligment; meaning he may not get the run support -- Justin Masterson have an optimal A+ rating; he pitched well and received very good run support.
 
TB: David Price L (12-4, 2.42) C+
NYY: Andy Pettitte L (11-2, 2.70) C- 
Ephemerides note: Price ^MEcME good, Pettitte good
Run support for Price: 5.62
Run support for Pettitte: 5.92
Score: TB 5, NYY 9
Result: Over 8.5
 
TEX: C.J. Wilson L (7-5, 3.35) B+
BOS: Jon Lester L (11-3, 2.78) B+ 
Ephemerides note: Wilson ^SUtSU ^SUtUR $$$$ lucky, Lester _VEsVE
Run support for Wilson: 4.75
Run support for Lester: 5.64
Score: TEX 4, BOS 2
Result: Under 8.5
Note: here we have both pitchers with high biorhythms as evidenced by the + sign. Jon Lester got a warm-colored B+ rating; meaning he could pitch well but may not get the run support.
 
TOR: Shaun Marcum R (7-4, 3.44) B+
BAL: Brian Matusz L (3-9, 4.77) B+ 
Ephemerides note: Marcum _, Matusz ^SUtJU good
Run support for Marcum: 5.08
Run support for Matusz: 3.48
Note: same ratings as the Rangers/Red Sox game but i don't think its ever advisable to bet an Under when Matusz is pitching. Know your pitchers and pick your spots.
 
CWS: Freddy García R (9-3, 4.36) C-
MIN: Nick Blackburn R (7-7, 6.40) B-
Ephemerides note: García good, Blackburn maybe
Run support for García: 5.26
Run support for Blackburn: 5.63
Score: CWS 6, MIN 7
Result: Over 9.5
Note: both pitchers have low biorhythms as evidenced by the - sign -- both pitchers have cool-colored ratings; meaning that one or both will receive good run support. Again, know your pitchers: García's starts have usually gone Over the totals as is also the case for Blackburn's games as he hasn't been very good this season.
 
SEA: Jason Vargas L (6-4, 3.09) B+
LAA: Ervin Santana R (8-7, 3.76) B+ 
Ephemerides note: Vargas _VEsUR, Santana _
Run support for Vargas: 3.20
Run support for Santana: 4.94
Score: SEA 2, LAA 1
Result: Under 8.5
Note: a classic example of pitchers pitching well and not getting run support
 
PHI: Roy Halladay R (10-7, 2.19) C-
CHC: Tom Gorzelanny L (4-5, 3.16) B- 
Ephemerides note: Halladay good, Gorzellany $ lucky
Score: PHI 4, CHC 11 bottom 8th
Result: Over 7.5
Note: a very high-scoring game involving one of the best pitchers of our time -- who'd knew; gotta play the Under, right? Not with these ratings.
 
 
Caveat: this isn't a 100% thing. Otherwise, i'd be a 100% handicapper.
 
For future reference.
 
 
 
Legend
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Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 34877
Posted: #37

 Bump for Tony. Post #36 is a must read.

Oh. And how about dumping that iPhone for one where you can post messages at covers?

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