Play Against
Any team (SAN FRANCISCO)
off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts
84-52 over the last 5 seasons.
61.8% (32.2 units)
Play On
Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (WASHINGTON)
poor NL hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in July games
56-52 over the last 5 seasons.
51.9% (34.2 units)
Play On
All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE)
team with a terrible SLG (<=.400) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) -AL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season
151-153 over the last 5 seasons.
49.7% (60.1 units)
Play Against
Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND)
poor offensive team - scoring <=4.4 runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest
61-31 over the last 5 seasons.
66.3% (26.9 units)
Play On
Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (KANSAS CITY)
with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less
125-82 over the last 5 seasons.
60.4% (45.2 units)
Play Against
Home teams (OAKLAND)
AL team with a low slugging percentage (<=.410) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games
99-62 over the last 5 seasons.
61.5% (38.4 units)
Before we take a look at the Rockies' batting stats, we're going to look at their pitcher. Pitching is a vital part of the game, but having Kyle Freeland on the mound could be a problem.
Freeland has a record of 4-7 this season with an ERA of 4.96. Over the span of 101.2 innings, he's allowed 111 hits with only 69 strikeouts. Needless to say, Freeland could spell trouble tonight.
The Rockies will rely on their batters to get them through today's game. As a team, Colorado ranks second in Major League Baseball with a batting average of .262.
They have an on-base percentage of .325, which ranks fourth overall. They're also tied for the seventh-most runs in the league at 445. If they can take advantage of this, they could pull off a win tonight.
Similar to the Rockies situation, the Brewers are starting a subpar pitcher tonight. Getting the nod is Aaron Ashby, who has an awful 2-7 record as a starter this season.
With an ERA of 4.57, it'll come down to which one of these pitchers can step up tonight. Over the course of 69 innings, Ashby has allowed nine home runs. It looks like the Brewers will need great batting too.
This is really where the two teams begin to differ. The Brewers have a batting average of .238, ranking 21st in the league. They have an on-base percentage of .316, which ranks 13th overall.
The team ranks ninth in runs with 442 this season. In every main batting category, the Brewers fall behind the Rockies. These small differences will play a huge factor in tonight's game.
After taking a look at each of these teams, the Rockies are slightly the better pick. This is definitely a close call considering the Brewers' winning streak.
However, with Ashby on the mound and the Rockies having the batting edge, we have to go with Colorado. The Rockies come into this game as +156 underdogs, so the odds are a lot better as well.
Along with taking the Rockies, we're going to pair this pick with the over. In six of the Rockies' last eight games, the total has gone over. The total has also gone over in four of their last five road games.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Colorado Rockies +156, OVER
Prop Picks
Colorado (-105) OVER 3.5 Runs
Colorado is averaging 4.72 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 6 in the league, with a team BA of .262, which ranks No. 2. Scores have gone OVER in five of the Rockies’ last six road games.
With Dunkel predicting a Colorado victory by the score of 7-6, take the Rockies (-105) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 3.5 runs against the Brewers.
Colorado (+145) Most Hits
Colorado is averaging 9.03 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 2 in the league. Milwaukee is averaging 7.97 hits per 9 innings, which ranks No. 21 in the league. That average decreases to 7.91 hits per 9 innings at home.
With Dunkel predicting a Colorado road win while going OVER its Vegas run total, take the Rockies (+145) to finish with more hits than the Brewers.
Aaron Ashby (-165) OVER 1.5 Earned Runs
Colorado is averaging 4.72 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 6 in the league. Ashby has allowed 35 earned runs in 69.0 innings pitched for an ERA of 4.57. That ERA increased to 5.79 (9 earned runs in 14.0 IP) in July.
With Dunkel predicting a Colorado victory while going OVER their team run total, take Ashby (-165) to finish OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed against the Rockies.
he answer to this question is the 0-3 Paolo Espino. Although his record isn’t very good, Espino has an ERA of 3.57 this season.
The biggest problem we see for the Nationals is how they’ll perform at the plate. Ranking 13th in MLB, the Nationals have a batting average of .246. Although this average isn’t bad, they haven’t done much when it comes to converting it to runs.
Washington ranks 27th in the league in runs at 371. Against the Los Angeles Dodgers, this kind of performance won’t be enough.
Another difference between the Nationals and Dodgers is that the Dodgers have Tony Gonsolin. While the Nationals start a winless pitcher, the Dodgers will start an undefeated one.
With a record of 11-0, Gonsolin will hit the mound with an ERA of 2.02. His WHIP is .084, ranking him as one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. They’re also pretty great at the plate this season.
As a team, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a batting average of .257, ranking fourth overall. In terms of runs, the Dodgers have put up 487 this season, ranking second overall.
Taking all of these things into account, the choice tonight becomes pretty clear. It also becomes clear as to how the Dodgers have won 64 games and ranked first in the NL West.
The Washington Nationals might be coming off of a win, but they’re no match for the Dodgers. Espino on the mound might help to start the game, but it won’t last very long.
The Dodgers put up seven runs against the San Francisco Giants last night. With the bullpen of the Nationals, we’re definitely going to take the over in this game.
Of course, we’ll also take the Dodgers at -313. Although the odds aren’t great, we have to remember the Dodgers are 63-29 as a favorite. In their last ten games against the Nationals, the Dodgers are 9-1 as well.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -313, OVER
Prop Picks
LA Dodgers (+100) OVER 5.5 Runs
Washington is allowing 5.63 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 30 in the league, with an opposing team BA of .268, which ranks No. 29. Scores have gone OVER in 12 of the Nationals’ last 17 games versus NL West teams.
With Dunkel predicting an LA victory by the score of 8-3, take the Dodgers (+100) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 5.5 runs against the Nationals.
LA Dodgers (-170) Most Hits
LA is allowing 7.09 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 2 in the league. Washington is allowing 9.25 hits per 9 innings, which ranks No. 29 in the league. That average increases to 9.61 hits per 9 innings on the road.
With Dunkel predicting an LA home win while going OVER its Vegas run total, take the Dodgers (-170) to finish with more hits than the Nationals.
Paolo Espino (+105) OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed
LA is averaging 8.66 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 5 in the league. Espino has allowed 59 hits in 58.0 innings pitched, which averages 9.15 hits per 9 innings. That average increases to 9.32 (29 hits in 28 IP) on the road.
With Dunkel predicting an LA victory while going OVER their team run total, take Espino (+105) to finish OVER 5.5 hits allowed against the Dodgers.
LHP Kyle Freeland to the mound against Milwaukee’s ninth-ranked scoring offense on Monday night (4.60 RSPG), who’s having the second-worst campaign of his six-year career sitting 4-7 with a 4.96 ERA across 18 starts (1.41 WHIP); recently highlighted by an 0-2 record and 8.44 ERA in the month of July (3 GS, 1.56 WHIP).
On the other hand, the Brewers send LHP Aaron Ashby to the hill against Colorado’s seventh-ranked scoring offense tonight (4.64 RSPG), who’s also having a bumpy campaign sitting 2-7 with a 4.57 ERA in 18 trips to the mound this season (1.49 WHIP), which includes a 2-5 record and 5.13 ERA across 12 starts (1.60 WHIP); and a 0-2 record with a 2.45 ERA across six bullpen appearances (1.09 WHIP).
I’ll take the over here, as Freeland has surrendered four runs or more in four of his last six outings for Colorado (6.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), which includes an 0-2 record and 5.68 ERA in three road starts (1.21 WHIP); setting the stage for a relatively high-scoring battle against the Brewers and Ashby, who’s 1-4 with a 7.14 ERA across his last seven outings (1.72 WHIP). By M.Crosson
Score Prediction: Brewers 7, Rockies 5
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
LHP Max Fried to the hill against Philadelphia’s eighth-ranked scoring offense on Monday night (4.61 RSPG), who’s having the best campaign of his career sitting 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA across 19 starts (1.06 WHIP), which already includes a decent outing against the Phillies (6 IP, 2 ER).
On the flip side, the Phillies send LHP Ranger Suarez to the mound against Atlanta’s fourth-ranked scoring offense tonight (4.76 RSPG), who’s been up-and-down for Philly all season, considering he’s 7-5 with a 4.07 ERA across 16 appearances (1.42 WHIP), which already includes a pair of miserable outings against the Braves (11 IP, 9 ER).
I’ll back the Braves to cover here, as Suarez has been far too difficult to trust for Philly recently, considering he’s 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA across his last ten starts, which includes an 0-2 record and 7.36 across two appearances against Atlanta (1.64 WHIP); setting the stage for a lopsided matchup against the Braves and Fried, who’s tossed five innings or more and allowed two runs or less in seven of his last ten outings (6-1, 2.10 ERA). By M.Crosson
Score Prediction: Braves 7, Phillies 3
Best Bet: Braves -1.5 (-110)
The over hit in five of the previous seven meetings between these two teams, is 6-0 in the Braves’ last six games and is 6-1 in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record. The over is also 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five divisional games and is 8-3 in its last 11 road games when facing a left-handed starter. Atl OV 8.5 /A.Rome
The Rays have won 47 of the last 64 meetings between these two teams and 14 of their last 19 games in Baltimore. They’ve also won eight of their last nine divisional games, are 7-2 in their last nine games overall and have won six of their last eight games versus a right-handed starter. On the other side, the Orioles are just 51-123 in their last 174 home games when facing an opponent with a winning record and have dropped 76 of their last 109 divisional matchups. T.B. -124 /A.Rome
The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams in Boston and 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall. The over is also 5-0-1 in the Guardians’ last six games, is 3-0-1 in their last four on the road and 5-0-1 in their last six games when facing a right-handed starter. On the other side, the over is 6-1 in the Red Sox’ last seven games overall, is 6-1 in their last seven home games and 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record. Bos OV 9.5 /A.Rome
The Rangers are just 16-35 in their last 51 meetings versus the Mariners, are 2-6 in their last eight games overall and are 26-63 in their last 89 road contests in which they’ve faced a right-handed starter. The Mariners, meanwhile, are 5-1 in their last six games when playing the opener of a new series, are 22-6 in their last 28 games overall and have won five of their last six home games when facing a team with a losing record. Sea -162 /A.Rome
The Phillies rank 11th in all of baseball, averaging 4.55 runs per game at home this season. They’ll have their hands full with Braves pitcher Max Fried, whose power prevention numbers have been outstanding this year. He’s allowed an ISO under .100 to both left- and right-handed hitters.
The Phillies still have some power without Bryce Harper, as Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. Nick Castellanos also had a .308 ISO against left-handed pitching last season.
The Phillies are 3-4 against Atlanta and 24-23 at home this season.
Fried is the better pitcher in this matchup, which typically leads to that team serving as the best bet, but I actually believe there’s value on the Phillies here.
Given some of the Braves’ injuries and that the Phillies have home-field advantage, Philadelphia is being slightly underrated by Vegas. Fried has faced the Phillies already this season and had a good start by allowing two earned runs in six innings, but he didn’t factor into the decision.
I expect a repeat result here. I took the Phillies moneyline at +145.
Pick: Phillies ML +145 By N.Shlian
We are backing the trends in this outing and going with Under 9 at -114 on FanDuel. I believe that the line is over-adjusted due to the poor surface-level numbers of each starting pitcher.
However, both pitchers have started to improve lately, which has led to more low-scoring games. Cincinnati’s offense is very average, while the Marlins have struggled mightily at the dish and have been shut out in four of their last six games.
The weather should not be a factor in this game as the forecast calls for a slight 5-7 mph breeze blowing from left-to-right. Over the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, the under is 8-2.
Pick: Under 9 (-114) | Play up to (-125) By T.Sartori
@RLeith35
Disagree to all who read.
The reds have the worst starter and bullpen e.r.a in the league. The marlins bats, as weak as they are, can still muster 3 to 4 off the reds team especially tonights starter for them. The reds offense is good for 4 or more themselves against a poor road starter for miami. Best of luck to all cappers.
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