MLB Chase Series #6 and #7

Winnipeg Jets ML (from a source on 5-1 run)

While the playoffs are now an extreme long-shot, (they need to win tonight and hope the Senators and Rangers lose all their remaining games) the Jets have still been playing very well, particularly at home. In fact, they're 5-1 (5-0-1) their last six here at Winnipeg. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have dropped three straight on the road and are just 1-5 their last six overall. While the Habs would certainly like to "right the ship," they've already made the playoffs. They could easily get caught looking ahead to Saturday's "Hockey Night in Canada" showdown vs. long-time rival Toronto.

On the other hand, the Jets are playing their final game of the season. They've fought so hard in recent weeks, that I don't expect them to just roll over tonight. As captain Andrew Ladd noted: "The worst thing you can do is sell yourself short and end up having those teams losing and then shoot yourself in the foot by not putting forth your best effort. We're all professionals in this room - we'll show up and work hard and try to win that game against Montreal."

Its true that the Canadiens have won both this season's meetings. However, both of those games were played at Montreal. The last meeting in this series, here at Winnipeg, saw the Jets win by a score of 4-0. With their passionate fans helping to provide them with energy and cheering them on every step of the way, I feel the Jets are worth a look here. Consider Winnipeg

Beware, I am a Boston Bruins fan (Bruins -1.5 +140)

1. Scheduling - Tampa played last night. By outscoring the Maple Leafs 3-0 in the third period, they were able to snap a six-game losing streak. They have lost three in a row on the road when playing without rest.

2. Home Ice Advantage - Tampa Bay is a poor 6-15-3 this season on the road.  They have not won a game away from home since a 5-0 shutout of Carolina on April 4th.  Since then, they have lost six straight road games and have lost 9 of their last 10.  Boston is 15-4-3 at home this season and has really owned the Lightning at TD Garden, winning eight of the last nine matchups here including six straight. Tampa Bay is 1-11 on the road revenging a road loss.

3. X-Factor - With the Lightning long since eliminated from playoff contention and finally having snapped their losing skid, I don't see them having the same intensity without rest.  Boston enters Thursday tied with Montreal for the Northeast Division lead.  They have every reason to get the two points here.  I think they will as they win by a wide margin.

Colorado Rockies ML (from the source now 25-3 after loss on Milw)

You would think that the Arizona Diamondbacks had the edge on the mound given this line tonight. However, that’s not the case, and I’m going to back the Colorado Rockies at an excellent price as a result.

Jorge De La Rosa is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.030 WHIP through four starts this season. De La Rosa is 7-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 13 career starts against Arizona.

Trevor Cahill is clearly being overvalued here. The right-hander is 0-3 with a respectable 3.60 ERA in four starts this season, but he’s 1-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in six career starts against Colorado.

The Rockies are 9-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line after one or more consecutive overs this season. Colorado is 11-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season. Arizona is 4-12 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockies Thursday.

Here are a couple of plays from a source 21-10.

Angels ML

The Angels lost two of three at home vs Texas to start the week after sweeping Detroit on the weekend. They are now 8-12 on the season. The Mariners dropped two straight to Houston and have gone just 2-7 over their last 9 games to fall to 8-15 on the season. Tonight the Angels will go with Garrett Richards, who is in the rotation with Jared Weaver on the DL. Richards is 1-0 on the season in 6 total appearances with a 2.55 ERA. In his two starts he has pitched 13.1 innings of work giving up 4 earned runs. His latest start he went 7 innings against a tough Tigers line up giving up just 2 hits and 0 runs with 8 strikeouts and no walks. Brandon Maurer will pitch for Seattle and he is 1-3 with a 7.45 ERA over 4 starts this season. He started off with two rough starts, and then followed that up with two much improved starts where he went 1-1 allowing 4 earned runs over 12.2 innings of work. Take note that Seattle sits near the bottom of the league at 27th with a team OBA of .228 and a OBP of .292. The Angels are 2nd in team OBA at .277 with a .337 OBP. Although the Angels had a slow start to the season they’ve scored 42 runs over their last 7 games (6 runs per game). Compare that to Seattle who has scored just 17 runs over their last 7 games, and 7 of those came in one game. Note that the Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in Seattle and 41-19 in their last 60 meetings overall. This is a fairly even pitching match up looking at recent starts, but I give the edge to the Angels. Combine that with the lineup Los Angeles will put out and I think we’ve got good value here on the road team.

Cubs/Marlins under 7.5

The 6-14 Cubs will take on the 5-16 Marlins over the weekend. Tonight’s game features Edwin Jackson on the mound for Chicago and Kevin Slowey for Miami. Jackson is 0-3 although he has pitched OK with a 4.84 ERA, .225 BA and 1.39 WHIP. Last year he was 10-11 with Washington with a 4.03 ERA and solid .243 OBA and 1.22 WHIP. His last start was his best as he went 6 innings against a hot Milwaukee team allowing just 4 hits and 1 earned run. Slowey has surprising pitched very well to start the season despite his 0-2 record. He has a 1.90 ERA, .261 OBA and 1.23 WHIP over 4 starts. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start this season. Note that the Cubs rank 26th in the MLB in team batting average, while Miami is dead last hitting just .221. These two teams are also 28th and 29th in OBP. Note that the Cubs are averaging 3.25 runs per game (27th) and the Marlins are averaging an awful 2.57 runs per game (30th). The UNDER is 4-1 in the Cubs last 5 overall, and 7-3 in their last 10 vs a right handed starter. The UNDER is also 12-4-1 in the Marlins last 17 home games dating back to last season, and 4-0 in all 4 of Slowey’s starts this year. Take the UNDER tonight in a battle between two struggling National League teams.

Angle's comment: I think the Angels will be steaming mad after the whipping they took from Texas last night.

Thx for the plays Buddy. Will be tailing. Getting ready to figure my stuff out 

Series 8

CHASE

Angle talk about squeezing the under in on the cubs game 

thanks for the picks guys...been looking for this thread

Got the G1 W with CHW and a PUSH on the Yankees Un. G2 tomorrow. Through down on the Un 8.5 live bet and cashed tho!

Minnesota Wild -1.5 +140

The Minnesota Wild find them selves in 8th place and tied with Columbus at 53 points. The Wild have two games remaining while Columbus has just one, but this will be Minnesota's final home gam. They should be treating it as a must win as they don't want to head into Colorado needing a victory tomorrow night. The Oilers are 13th in the West with 41 points and if they manage to lose both their final games they will be in the lottery for the #1 pick again this year. I know that the Oilers won't be trying to lose both of their final games, but they have shown they've lost motivation losing 9 of their last 10 games. During those 10 games they've scored more than 1 goal just twice with a brutal 1.30 goals per game. They've given up 3+ goals in 8 of those 10 games as well. Minnesota hasn't finished the season strong, but they are coming off a big 2-1 win at home vs the Kings. They've won 3 of their past 5 games. These two teams have met 3 times this year with the Wild winning all three, and they've even won by 2 in all three games. The Wild have had Edmonton's number winning 38 of their last 52 meetings overall and 22 of their last 26 in Minnesota. With a lot more to play for I think the Wild come away with a big victory here. I'll take them on the puck line as they should win by a few tonight.

Series 8

Bulls/Nets under 177

Pirates ML

Don't expect the Cardinals to have it as easy tonight as they did on Friday. when the Redbirds took advantage of the soft spot in the Pirates' rotation, Jonathan Sanchez, to jump all over the Bucs with back-to-back homers to begin the game en route to a 9-1 romp. Remember, Pittsburgh had won 12 of 16 games previously, and its staff had posted a 1.89 ERA in the preceding seven games, so a return to the recent norm could be expected at Busch Stadium from the Pirates. Especially since the Buccos will be going with vet starter A.J. Burnett, who has posted a 2.79 ERA in April and held St. Louis to just one hit in 7 IP of a 5-0 win at PNC Park on April 17. Meanwhile, though Cards starter Jake Westbrook has been hot in the early going, note that he has had all sorts of trouble vs. Pittsburgh in his career, as a 1-7 record and 5.91 ERA in previous encounters vs. the Pirates would attest.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101611831

btw newb question. what does the green bars under my name mean?

G2 Brewers +121

G2 Brewers +121

Source 27-4

Tampa Rays ML

The Tampa Bay Rays should be a much heavier favorite over the Chicago White Sox Sunday given the edge they have on the mound. I’ll gladly take advantage and back them at this generous price with the 2012 AL Cy Young winner on the mound.

Price is off to somewhat of a slow start in 2013 which is why he is undervalued in the early going. He has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in six career starts against the White Sox.

This play falls into a system that is 51-13 (79.7%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) – with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL).

The Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series. Tampa Bay is 7-0 in Price’s last 7 starts during game 4 of a series. The White Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series. Bet the Rays Sunday.

Mets ML

Cole Hamels in getting no run support this year and the Phillies are just not good against left handed pitching. The Mets have been pounded by the Phillies so far this year and are trying to avoid the sweep today. Look for the Mets to come out swinging while the Philly bats will struggle. Take the Mets.

Dodgers/Brewers over 6.5

Not only do the Brewers and Dodgers feature a lot of big name offensive stars, but neither starting pitcher has a good history pitching against their respective opponent.

Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse left his last start with a dislocated pinkie. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in 49 career innings versus the Dodgers. The Dodgers have gone over the total in seven of their last eight home contests when facing a right-hander.

Kershaw entered the season as arguably the top pitcher in the National League. But his curve ball and control haven't been there during his last three starts. The Brewers, with their dominant righty lineup, have hit the southpaw. Kershaw has an 8.47 ERA in four matchups against the Brewers, including a 15.43 ERA during his past starts against them.

Carlos Gomez is heating up for the Brewers batting .500 with three homers during his last 12 games. He has a .750 batting average against Kershaw. The over has cashed in 18 of Milwaukee's last 22 road games against a foe with a losing home mark.

Huge doggie! Brewers ML

When the Brewers wrap up a three-game visit with the Dodgers in Los Angeles Sunday afternoon they will send the steady serves of Kyle Lohse to the mound. He is 11-2 in his last thirteen team starts in April, including 7-1 his last eight away. With Lohse in commanding KW form with 17 strikeouts and 2 walks this season, and his counterpart Clayton Kershaw 0-3 with a sky-high 12.28 ERA in his last three home starts against the Brew Crew we'll side up with the live dog here today.