MLB 5/17/17

5/17/17

32-44-3, RoR –6.24% (vs 11/10 odds 49.1%)

Brewers, F5, ML, +106, Garza / Chacin

BOL

Brewers:  I suppose the facts that the Padres are 4-4 when Chacin takes the ball and they are at home is what has installed them as the favorite, but there is much to-do with this game that does not agree. At this point Matt Garza looks like a “comeback player of the year” candidate for one thing. He is 4-0 for quality starts and the Brewers are 3-1 when he takes the ball. The only loss came at Pittsburgh when he gave them 7 innings and surrendered only 1 earned run, but the Brewers offense had a (rare) bad night and scored only 1 run, losing 2-1. Certainly not his fault. Add to that the fact the Brewers are the fourth best righty beating team in five innings at 16-9-5 versus the Padres 9-14-5 and you have a false favorite. Statistical facts: Garza, 70.8 rating, 4-0 quality starts, Chacin 52.9 rating, 3-5 quality starts, and the Brewers hold an advantage in offensive productivity as well, but I probably don’t need to go into detail there.  

5/17/17

32-44-3, RoR –6.24% (vs 11/10 odds 49.1%)

Brewers, F5, ML, +106, Garza / Chacin

Add: Royals, F5, ML, +117 Pineda / Vargas

BOL

Royals:  You can almost always count on the Yankees loyal following to bump the line in the wrong direction. Vargas is the MLB leader in era and stands 6-1 in both quality starts and head to head wins. I know SABRmetrics fans will say “he is due to regress”, but most of them didn’t pick Rick Porcello to win the Cy Young last year either. You can tell when a guy is hot, but just like going against a winning streak, how do you know when it ends? Pineda is good competition, but certainly not better than Vargas, and if someone is due for regression my guess would be Pineda. Forget the overall standings, both teams are 6-4 their last 10 and the Royals are hitting right handed pitching much better than they did early in the season. This is not a Sabathia-Hammel matchup and the situational condition is much different.