SEASON: 51-58,
+3.2750 Meltons
YESTERDAY: 1-4,
-4.6125 units
A tough few
days. Thankfully, I like today's card. let's see how that goes. Took the time to provide some writeups today.
WHITE
SOX +107 (1.75 UNITS) - Hate stepping in front of a moving train
but it's a very good situational spot for the White Sox with the Rays coming off
a 4 game sweep of the Red Sox and 7 straight road wins and the Sox coming in off
a day of rest. Price looked good on the road in his last against the Orioles,
but let's not forget he still carries a 5.45 road ERA (2.65 more than his home
ERA) and a night time ERA almost 1.50 higher than the day. In very limited at
bats, Rios, Jones and Konerko all have gone deep on him. In addition, the Sox
have several hitters who are much better against lefties in Konerko, Ramirez,
Rios and Beckham. Meanwhile, the Rays are hitting a meager .188 against lefties
last year, 90 points lower than righties and have a slugging percentage almost
200 points lower against lefties. In the past 2+ years, they have been worse
against lefties. John Danks comes in with stellar numbers. In two starts, he has
thrown 13 innings and allowed 10 hits, 2 earned runs (1.38 ERA) and has a 12:4
K:BB ratio.
PIRATES +112 (1.5 UNITS) - David Bush has
a 5.95 road ERA the past 3 years and certainly doesn't warrant being such a
favorite here. The Brewers have allowed 5 or more runs in 11 out of 12 games
this year (the one other game they allowed 4) and they are not getting much help
from their pen either. The Bucs have won 5 out of 6 at home and their revamped
bullpen looks solid with Evan Meek, Brandon Donnelly, Joel Hanrahan, Octavio
Dotel and Jack Taschner. Starter Charlie Morton has been hit hard on the road
his first two starts, but I still feel he is a decent starter. In 11 of his 17
starts (6 of 8 at home) for the Pirates last year, he allowed 3 runs or less and
his numbers were skewed by one bad outing against the Cubs where he allowed 10
runs in one inning. The Bucs are playing better ball, the starting pitching is
even and the Pirates may in fact have the better bullpen.
KANSAS CITY +132 (1.5 UNITS) - The
Royals actually lead the AL in hitting at .300 and are hitting .333 against
lefties. Kyle Davies will never be a frontline starter, but he has allowed 3
runs or less in 8 of his L9 starts for the Royals and KC is 8-1 in those 9
games. The Jays are currently hitting .229 as a team and outside of Wells, Lind
and Gonzalez, nobody is hitting the ball. Eveland has been tough in his first
two starts, but Davies keeps the Royals in games and despite their recent
bullpen woes, the best hitting team in the AL against the 3rd worst hitting team
in the AL has a lot of value in today's matchup.
RANGERS +126 (1.5 UNITS) - After
falling into a trap on the Red Sox yesterday, it is really becoming apparent
that this team is not good right now. In their L7 games they have scored just 17
runs and without Ellsbury and Cameron, they are now using 5 starters who are
hitting under .220. Texas comes in off a day of rest with Colby Lewis coming in
off two solid performances. In his last he struck out 10 in 5 1/3 innings and
has limited opposing hitters to a .186 average. Vlad Guerrero owns Wakefield
with 5 HR's in 21 at bats. In 4 out of 5 of Wake's most recent starts, he has
been roughed up and he doesn't seem to be in sync.
DETROIT +124 (1.5 UNITS) - Scott
Kazmir is far from being his best right now. He came off the DL in his last
start and was hammered by a Yankee team he had done well against in the past. He
missed most of the spring and was injury plagued last season and had an ERA
close to 5 in 2009. Now is the time to fade him before he hits stride. In 11 of
Porcello's last 13 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or less and he has shown he is
solid on the road.
CINCINNATI +122 (1.25 UNITS) - I think
the Dodgers are flat out overrated. Billingsley's ERA since June 30th of last
year is 5.31 and he gets too much respect. He has not shown signs of any rhythm
and the Reds come in off a day of rest returning home after dropping their last
5 on the road. I still feel Bailey is a talent. Since August 23rd, he has thrown
68 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.49.
ARIZONA - 137 (1.25 UNITS) - Kyle has typically been a train wreck on the road. Over the last 3 years,
he has a road ERA of 5.52 (almost 2 1/4 runs higher) and has allowed a .302
average on the road. Dan Haren peripheral numbers are outstanding again with a
WHIP of 1.10 and 20:4 K:BB ratio. He has pitched well against his former team in
the past and this is the game the Dbacks must win with Carpenter throwing for
the Cards tomorrow.