I think the Yankees are in for a disappointing West Coast road trip

Why?  As the A's proved to us beyond any doubt, they were CHOCK full of value in all three games, particularly the first and last games started by the lightly regarded Homer Bailey and Tanner Roark. The A's are an underappreciated (and thus undervalued) team every season.  Add to that the fact that Oakland's decrepit stadium continues to be a veritable house of horrors for the Yankees. The Yankees had won only 7 of their previous 25 games there! Now they've lost 9 of their last 10 in Oakland.  And they were favored twice against the A's who'd won 17 of their last 21 at home since the All-Star break?  And casual bettors still thought it wise to invest in the visitors?  I haven't seen a better set up for a home team, nor a bigger soft spot for a road team all season.  This series was stealing money, even if the A's had won only 2 out of the 3.  Ain't no freakin' way were the shorthanded and yet still wildly overachieving Yankees going to win this series against these feisty A's who don't fear them at all in Oakland.

The upcoming series in Dodger Stadium is very different. There is little value in betting the Dodgers here.  Why is that?  Because there is normally NO value at all in betting on the Dodgers.  They are a glamour team, they've made it to the World Series two years in a row, they're absolutely loaded this season, and you can't expect the oddsmakers to let us bet on this team at a bargain price.  Just the opposite is what happens every day.  They make bettors pay an inflated price for the privilege of backing these guys.  I think most of us understand that. The rare exception, though, is when the Dodgers are matched up against a team as popular as they are, like the New York Yankees for example.  But, much of the value we might have enjoyed this weekend in betting on the Dodgers has been drained because the Dodgers just keep on winning while it's obvious to just about everyone now that the mighty Yankees have finally sprung leaks.

James Paxton, like his fellow Yankee starting pitchers, has pitched worse this season on the road than he has at home.  But (and this is a big but, as big as C.C. Sabathia's), all but one of his poor performances on the road happened early in the season. Four of his last five starts on the road have been quality starts. Not gems, but reliable 6-inning efforts.  The only dud came in Boston during a lost weekend for the Bombers.  So if there's one Yankees starting pitcher right now who doesn't have me pointing and scoffing at him, it's this guy. Paxton has what it takes to match Ryu tonight until the Yankees can hand this game over to the bullpen, which brings me to another reason why you shouldn't be more excited about betting the Dodgers than you were the A's.

Unlike in Oakland, where the Yankees were trailing in virtually every inning, Aaron Boone is going to use Ottavino, Kahnle, Britton, and Chapman. Even if there's no save situations, Chapman has to get into at least one game. Given how rested and ready New York's top relievers are, if Paxton can deliver another 6 innings while allowing less than 3 runs, the Yankees will have a great shot of winning this series opener.

MR. B , I support most of your well laid out argument except I don’t wager only for value. 

I think RYU is dominant and more effective than Paxton. The yankee bats are silent RN and the dodger bats have been quieter recently other than the 16 run outburst they are at home and should win tonight. 

Yes as you brilliantly pointed out the Oakland set up was perfect , I wrote this lose 2/3 and they got swept but I concurred with your sentiment. Thank you for sharing impressions much appreciated and good luck  

Quote Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE:

So no action tonight Mr. Bator? I’m ok with cashing out after 3 winning days 

Thanks for the analysis and picks! 

I'd be inclined to go with the road dog tonight in L.A. but I seldom bet against the most elite pitchers in the game unless they're laying a silly price on the road.  Ryu is among that small list of elite pitchers and the Dodgers are a perfect 11-0 in his home starts, so I'll probably just watch with keen interest.  In the meantime, go Cubs!  I'm on them -125 and -1.5 +160. Beware, though, that my few picks in this thread on teams not named the A's have done, um, quite poorly.

Go A's

GL tonight

Any feels for late games?

Oh wait your actually not picking the yanks just opinion ok my bad 

Yeah, but what I wasn't willing to do is fade Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Ryu got smacked around tonight by the Yankees, allowing 7 earned runs. 

 That's as many earned runs as Ryu had allowed at Dodger Stadium ALL SEASON!

While the Yankees were enduring their well-documented struggles in Oakland this week, the Dodgers were killing time by sweeping the hapless Blue Jays.  A 16-3 thumping administered in the series opener seemed to have resulted in the Dodgers' hitters inability to take Blue Jays' pitching seriously going forward.  On the second night of the series, while the great Walker Buehler was busy doing Walker Buehler things (7 shutout innings, no walks and 8 Ks), his teammates managed to score just one run for him.  It proved not enough when Kenley Jansen coughed up the game-tying homer in the top of the 9th.  No worries, though, the Dodgers walked it off in the bottom of the 10th when Max Muncy cracked his 33rd home run giving the Dodgers a 2-1 win.  The fact that five no names had shut the Dodger offense down for nine innings was quickly forgotten.  The next night, the Dodgers ratcheted the intensity down another notch, managing just one pathetic hit and no runs in 7 innings against someone named Jacob Waguespack (no offense, Jacob). It wasn't until the bottom of the 9th that the Dodgers decided to get serious, parlaying a walk and three hits into 3 runs and a 3-2 win. It hardly seemed fair, two nights in a row, the Dodgers doing so little and winning games anyway, laughing it up at the end both times in on field celebrations. This was no way to get ready for a brooding, stewing, and far more talented opponent in the Yankees.

So, last night's result, a 10-2 Yankees blowout win, was surprising only in its severity. Ten runs on 16 hits and 4 home runs.  Six Yankees had multiple hits.  Ryu was tagged with an unthinkable line of 9 hits, 7 earned runs, and 3 home runs allowed in just four and a third innings. Meanwhile James Paxton delivered his finest road start of the season (and his second best start overall) just when his team needed it most. It was a big night for a proud team.  Said Aaron Judge, who hit the first home run of the game, "We needed a rebound game.  We were looking forward to this."

Good for the Yanks, but.....I think there's a price to pay for embarrassing the Dodgers like this. Strong evidence exists that the dynamic for this afternoon's game will be completely flipped from what he had last night. Now it's the Dodgers who, after three straight nights of lackadaisical offense, will be taking their at-bats seriously in every inning.

Most bettors are generally aware that the Dodgers are tough after a loss.  Let's take a look at that. The Dodgers lost six games in a row very early in the season, but since April 14th they have gone 27-9 following any loss. Since the All-Star break, they are 9-3 off a loss, and 5-2 off a loss against the same team that defeated them the day before. The scores of those 5 wins were 11-2, 7-2, 9-4, 4-1, and 4-0. One of the two losses occurred last weekend when the Dodgers lost close games on Saturday and Sunday in Atlanta.  A month ago, the Dodgers were swept at home in a 2-game set by the Angels, 5-4 and 3-2.  Investigators are still poring over the statistics from those games to figure out how the hell that happened.

It turns out that when the Dodgers get beat badly, they come out with their game faces on the next day.  Since May 10th, the Dodgers are 6-1 after losing their previous game by more than 4 runs.  Following three of those games, they had the opportunity to play the same team that had just beaten them soundly.

On May 9th the Nationals blanked the Dodgers in L.A. 6-0. The Dodgers returned the favor the next night 5-0.

On July 12th the Red Sox drubbed the Dodgers at Fenway Park 8-1. The Dodgers defeated them the following afternoon 11-2.

On July 29th the Rockies pounded the Dodgers 9-1. The Dodgers raced out to an early 7-0 lead the next night and won 9-4.

If you aren't yet liking the Dodgers on the runline today, wait until I tell you about an old man on a hill named C.C. Sabathia. Old C.C. is finishing up his 19th season in the major leagues and he's retiring at season's end.  Trust me when I tell you that no one in the Yankees organization is asking him to reconsider his decision.  The ending is getting ugly for a pitcher who will likely be voted into the Hall of Fame five years from now. Let's start with C.C.'s declining performance by month in 2019.

April   2.66 ERA in 20.1 innings

May   4.29 ERA in 21 innings

June  4.88 ERA in 27.2 innings

July  7.17 ERA in 21.1 innings

August  12.00 ERA in 3 innings

Sabathia remains effective at Yankee Stadium where his ERA this season is 3.19 in 48 innings.  Batters hit only .221 off of him there. On the road, though, it's just sad. His ERA is a bloated 6.95 in 45.1 innings. Batters are hitting .314 off of him and he's served up 17 homers (as opposed to only 8 at home). Some will note that Sabathia is pitching on 5 days rest today, but Dodgers fans and bettors have nothing to worry about.  His last three starts on exactly 5 days rest were abysmal.  They all happened to be on the road and his ERA was 9.88.  Make that truly abysmal. The Yankees lost those three games 8-6, 8-4, and 10-2.

For the Dodgers, 25-year old Tony Gonsolin will be making his fourth major league start and his fifth major league appearance. Interesting thing about Gonsolin is that through high school, college, and the low minors of the Dodgers' farm system, he didn't have numbers that indicated he was destined for the major leagues.  Prior to the beginning of last season, he was converted from a reliever to a starter and that changed everything.  In 26 starts, Gonsolin went 10-2 with a 2.60 ERA for Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. He was pitching for Oklahoma City when he was called up in late June.  His first start didn't go well and he was sent back down to Oklahoma City the next day.  He was called back up on July 30th and that night pitched the final 4 innings of a blowout win at Coors Field and collected a save. The Dodgers rewarded him in a funny way, with another ticket back to Oklahoma City. They recalled him on August 2nd, and on August 5th he started at home against the Cardinals and threw 6 shutout innings in an 8-0 win.  Next day?  Back to OKC.  But now he's back and starting today.  Dodger bettors don't need him to be great. Given the likelihood of the Dodgers sending C.C. to the showers early, Gonsolin just has to be adequate.  I'm not worried about him, and he's not worried that he's probably going back to Oklahoma City tomorrow no matter how well he pitches.

I doubt I'll bet a single dollar on the Dodgers moneyline.  It's going to be all runline, and some -2.5 runline if the available price is agreeable.  Good luck with whatever you do.