Yea, I know...taking such high lines is not the smart way to go...but I'll make my case.
Starting with Philly. Worley's splits are amazing. He's given up 4 or more runs on only 3 occasions...and those 3 games were during the day. His daytime ERA is a whopping 6.86 in 21 innings while his ERA in night games is an outstanding 1.60 in 67.1 innings. Also...his road/home splits are pretty eye opening too. His road ERA is 3.53 while his home ERA is only 2.20. Now...the Phillies are 12-2 in his starts this season and they've won his last 8 starts. He's coming off the worst start of his young career and he'll bounce back nicely in this game. The downside for him, however, is that he's opposed by Ian Kennedy, whose best start of HIS career came against the Phillies, at home, where he threw a complete game shutout with 10 K's earlier in the seaon. The difference between now and then is Utley and Pence are now in that Phillies lineup. Kennedy has had a great season and is also 7-0 in his last 7 starts where he's posted a 2.44 ERA. Now those numbers may be a bit misleading. His worst start in that span was a 6 inning, 3 ER performance against the Cards. Other than that...he's faced the Dodgers twice, Giants, Padres, Mets and Brewers. Only 2 good offenses on that list. The other bunch were jokes. While the DBacks aren't a bad road team...the Phillies are 23 games over .500 at home and I expect the better team to win this series.
Sabathia is the Yankees' Ace...we all know that. Now he's coming off a start in which the opposing team has done something that no other team has ever done against him. They homered at least 3 times against him. And not only that...they homered FIVE times against him. To put it into retrospect...CC gave up 5 homers in a combined 16 starts leading up to his last one. So that's 2 bad performances in a row for CC. How often does he have 3 non-quality starts in a row? Only twice in pinstripes. Also...Sabathia is known as the stopper for the Yanks. And when he takes the mound after a Yankees loss...the Yankees are 7-2 with both losses coming against, you guessed it, the Red Sox. The Twins aren't exactly the Red Sox. Now lets not forget how horrible the Twins are against the Yankees. They usually don't fare well against them...and I guess that's an understatement. CC has a 1.72 ERA in 4 starts against the Twins since becoming a Yankee and Duensing has a 9.42 in 4 appearances (3 starts) against the Yankees in his career. For those wondering...A-Rod is NOT back in the lineup tonight but that shouldn't be a problem.
Big win for the Royals last night. For the record...I'm bitter about that BS "home run" given to Butler last night. I always thought that the umpires should be aware of the ground rules before officiating a game. But I guess it is what it is. They almost blew the game last night but came out on top. With that said...will tonight be a let down spot? Hochevar has been pitching well but came back to earth in his last start. He handled the BoSox at Fenway a few starts ago, going 7 innings of 2 run ball to pick up the win. But, historically, he has AWFUL career numbers against the Red Sox. He had 4 starts against them before his last start and allowed at least 5 runs in each of them. Now that the new look Boston Lineup has seen him...I expect them to put a hurt on him. Beckett is coming off an embarrassing start where he allowed 5 runs in the first inning to the Mariners at Safeco. That qualifies as a non-quality start. He's had 5 other non-quality outings this season and has been the best in baseball at bouncing back from those In the 5 starts following a non-quality start...he has an ERA of 0.26 ERA. He's given up 1 run in 35.1 innings. That's INSANE. So those numbers + that lineup =...WIN?
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