denvedder - MLB contest - sides - incredible run

@MIZARD

 Hmmmmmmm. I thought it was the Chemotherapy brain causing my slump, but now that you mention it the slump started after someone posted that I was the man at O/U. Well, I don't believe in jinxes, but if this thread pushed him down, I guess it kept him from catching me so far. bells is startin to look like a contender, but all could change if they figure out what caused the Units to roll back 2 weeks on the leaderboard and fix it. Only the Consensus standings are correct. Either way, lots of fun.

SF +170

He also has  the typical favorites.

NYY

Atl

Sea

Hous

Denvedder has  lost 8 days in a row season record now 76-38 . 

@DeaconBlues2525

"the slump started after someone posted that I was the man at O/U."

__________________________

That would be me.....and my regression theory.

@DeaconBlues2525

 Not sure if I'd call that a slump, more like treading water and staying w/ what got you this far.  Keep it rolling.  Bells, broadcastjesus, manocks and smgambler all w/ 2+ sharpe ratios and will likely stay nipping at your heels.  

@DeaconBlues2525

 Is there anyway I can get a contact for you ? A email or something ? I have a huge business opportunity for you no joke 

@MrECapps

Bells, broadcastjesus, manocks and smgambler all w/ 2+ sharpe ratios and will likely stay nipping at your heels. 

_____________________________

If I may be so bold to predict, Bells / Manocks are going to hit a wall and regress due to their high winning %. 59% and 57% have shown to be unsustainable long term during the MLB contests historically. I guess I'll see if I'm wrong.

@tvigilante2020

This is a terrific scientific diversion for quantitative analysis.  

@DeaconBlues2525

 Sending prayers and healing vibes sir

Get well soon.

@tvigilante2020

 In your opinion who's a good follow right now?

@DeaconBlues2525

 I'm sorry to read that you have cancer DeaconBlues2525, may the chemotherapy help you, best of luck in beating cancer, stay positive, never give up the fight.

@chicubs09

"In your opinion who's a good follow right now?"

_____________________

No one....everyone's hit regression since the end of June to now. There are users that will be hot, but they're playing the full slate of daily games, and then will regress 

I would probably target some good MLB team experts who have 55 wins on sides (and above) with their respective teams.

Example: Team Expert for Colorado, currently ranked 12th: Jims Flying Eagles

Their record on sides for Colorado is 68 - 32, which, let's face it...is pretty damn good up until this point of the season (68%).

I'd stay away from the Chi-Sox experts, because the juice is too damn high.

Another example: Team Expert for Milwaukee, currently ranked 4th is Ajay411, and their record for sides with Milwaukee is 63 - 32 which is a 66% clip.

The problem with these users is that they could go on a 4 game losing streak at any time, which is expected....but to hit above 65% for the year on sides with ONE team, and if you manage your bankroll, you could blindly tail these users as they have shown some luck? / insight into these specific teams.

This is not a foolproof plan, but I'm tracking and seeing how these experts do over the season and will gather more data next season, which will give me 3 season's worth of data on these team experts to see if there are any patterns.

My MLB regression theory was doing well until the end of June (I was in 12th place overall) when the majority of Interleague started, and then the whole leaderboard got destroyed for about 2 weeks, except for DeaconBlues, because they weren't putting in more than 3 - 4 picks daily.

I'm currently using another regression system, and will be tracking it for the whole of August. I'm trying to claw back to 10,000 Units in the contest over the next week and see how I go from there.

It's a real grind, MLB.

@tvigilante2020

 Thanks for a very detailed and informative response. I'm definitely scrambling to make changes and adjustments since denvedder and some other guys who were doing great earlier in the season can no longer be   followed. there are a few guys here in the mlb forum doing well with nrfi's and 1st 5 inning plays that i've been following. trying to stay away from big chalk right now but imo after the trade deadline the buyers should start beating the sellers. 

Brutal day for the leaders yesterday.

bells 3-4 -875

broadcastjesus 2-4 -850

manocks 1-7 -4375

denvedder 2-3 -1025

ex: dodgers losing to giants yesterday. Draft kings had the bets at

10% SF

90% dodgers

which was the highest I’ve seen in awhile and of course sf smokes them 8-3 final.

A lot of people love living in the delusion, or just can’t open their eyes and use their brain but sports are rigged. Take a look at Jake Paul boxing career if you have any doubt. Yeah he boxes old dudes and normally out weighs the guy by 20 pounds but it’s all by design.

when money is involved corruption will follow.

Fridays plays for Denveddar

Phil -165

Braves +110

Closer to breakeven for the leaders as deacon widens the margin between himself and the field.  

deacon 1-0 +500

bells 2-3 -650

bjesus 1-1 -100

manocks 1-2 -500

vedder 2-1 +400

@MrECapps

 With my awesome 1-0 record. lol. Even though bells picked Washington, I was rooting for them. Would have been a nice win for them. Better a whole stadium of happy fans than just me. Well, it was my first 2 game win streak in a while. I have lost less than most just due to being too sick to make as many picks.

quick pop in here but i see UNCLE REGGIE finally showed up on denvetter...  sure had a killer win percentage 

9 picks tonight !

I see a 9-0 or 8-1 type day coming 

Congrats to bells on a 7-0 result. He is right behind me now.

@DeaconBlues2525

@DeaconBlues2525

 Above all else, we are rooting for you to win this fight.  Stay strong!

Leaders on fire yesterday.

deacon 2-1 +450

bells 7-0 +3750

bjesus 5-3 +1175

manocks 6-7 -1075

vedder 0-2 -1325