Couple thoughts Short card

@LVTruck

 And WE all fucking love the work you bring to this forum...

LET'S GO!!!

TRUST THE PROCESS!!!

This is what I’m looking at right now Melton against a stripped-down Kansas City lineup without Witt and possibly without Caglianone. Kansas City is averaging just 3.72 runs per game on the road, and Melton has been on fire.

I still want to see the lineups, but I may be interested in the first five under 4.5 at -108. The full-game under has some potential too, but then we have to deal with the bullpens and the possibility of Detroit teeing off late. Right now, the first five looks like the cleaner angl to me..

Over 55 innings across nine starts, Troy Melton has posted a 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 50 strikeouts, good for 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Statcast numbers, including an expected batting average around .215, an expected ERA near 3.00, a fastball averaging roughly 96 mph and a barrel rate below 6 percent. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last five starts.

WE LOVE YOU LV! 

Randy Dobnak is the weak link in the first-five under. His 1.93 ERA looks excellent, but under the hood it is nowhere near as clean as Melton’s.

Through 14 innings, Dobnak has allowed only three earned runs, but he has a 1.50 WHIP, only seven strikeouts, and his 5.67 FIP suggests the ERA is being flattered by sequencing and balls finding gloves. His Statcast numbers are also shaky: a .359 expected wOBA, 91.1 mph average exit velocity and a 40.4% hard-hit rate. 

He is basically a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball arm. That can work, especially at Comerica, but he does not miss enough bats to escape trouble when runners reach. In his last start, he allowed only one run across 4? innings, yet walked four hitters. 

Let’s be honest, Dobnak does not need to be special. We just need Melton to keep smoking zeros against this stripped-down Kansas City lineup. If Dobnak gives us two or three runs through five, we are fucking golden with under 4.5.

Detroit hits ground ballers at .235/.702

Dobnak does walk more than he K's though 

Good Luck LV

@LVTruck

 I'm not really an over/under bettor. I usually bet on teams. I think the Cardinals are the play. Any thoughts?

@lopez021130

 I agree 

Any interest in live betting Tampa LV? 

I don't even  know the score haha

Nevermind! Just focus on the 2 later games for the LV PLAY OF THE DAY!

LV, not trying to talk you out of anything. Just take a look at the Tigers offense since June 1. They rank top 5 in just about every meaningful stat. That’s gotta make you question an under. But then again, on the other side - Melton is Melton. 

I put in the work today, but nothing is really flowing naturally. I know what happens when I try to force action, and usually I get my ass handed to me.

Pass

Wow on my book the RL for the first 5 is -1.5! Ive never seen that 

smart.

@LVTruck

 Nothing wrong with a pass bro plenty of action tomorrow

I did get out of the office early, so I’m heading to my local bar. They’ve got four-card keno where you can play up to 20 coins on each card, and I do love me some four-card keno. Maybe I’ll grab a quick 20 racks, or maybe I’ll dump three dimes in about an hour. Either way, enjoy your evening and I’ll see you tomorrow.

TRUST THE PROCESS!!! 

Filthy weekend coming up!!! 

Bookies beware....AGAIN!!

LET'S GO!!!

@LVTruck

 CRU$H EM BRO. 

Smart man LV, forcing is a hard no. I apologize if I talked you off anything. Sometimes my own head gets in my way and I overthink what would’ve been a winning play. I’ll try to keep those thoughts to myself. Anyway, best of luck with the Keno.
Now that’s a game with a players edge 

@Kaufee

 I appreciate it. You probably saved me a shit ton today

@QBUN

enjoy your evening LV! We get back at the books tomorrow 

Been a long time Kaufee

will tail you on St Louis , BOL