Last game I am really digging into is Tampa Bay. Listen, I like the side, I like the hot streak, I like Rasmussen, and I like a lot about the spot. Let’s be honest, the Rays have been pretty damn good to us this week. The only thing that gives me some pause is Hunter Brown, because the guy can fk pitch. I am going to keep digging into this one
Some of my thoughts to add to today...
What do we think about Detroit? Flaherty pitched well last time out and we know he can miss a lot of bats. Quantrill hasn't been bad but he doesn't pitch more than a few innings and Rangers lineup is without Langford and Seager. Interesting.
Also looking at over 9 in O's-Reds. Young is a prime regression candidate and this is Greene's first start of the season coming off injury. His minor league starts were fantastic however, and he went 6 innings in his last one. But Great American Ballpark is a bandbox. Runs can come in bunches there.
First thing I wanted to look at was whether Young is really a regression candidate. I do not know if I would call him a prime regression guy, but there are definitely some underlying signs that the ERA may be a little better than the profile. The ERA looks solid, but the expected numbers, walk rate, and contact profile suggest there could be some correction coming. So I understand the angle
On the Greene side, you are right, this is his first start of the season coming off the injury, so there is some natural risk there. That being said, his rehab numbers were very strong. He threw 14.1 scoreless innings, allowed only 5 hits, walked 2, and struck out 13. So while I do not want to completely ignore the first-start-back angle, the minor league work does suggest he is ready.
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