Posted:
#26
oh wow, I actually played the fg oakland and only first 5 under, sick, might go undefeated for the day games
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Bob's MLB Thursday *** 8.14.14 ***
Posted:
#29
thanks man
I was going to take KC but super camel talked me out of it but it's ok, I went huge on Milwaukee first 5. Biggest play in over a month. I should have played it for half my roll. Fiers was never giving up a run today.
He is one of those guys where he doesn't really have a sample size, so you wouldn't know unless you looked at every game individually.
I caught on to him while in Vegas so I got to see him every start and the Brewers mismanaged him. He hit a rookie wall and they tried to make him a reliever and overworked him.
Since he was on rest today, he was going to be the best pitcher in baseball on this day.
Honestly if I was in vegas with cash I'd have placed half my roll on that one, but I can only bet online and it's not worth having that much in a website imo
Moving on :)
I was going to take KC but super camel talked me out of it but it's ok, I went huge on Milwaukee first 5. Biggest play in over a month. I should have played it for half my roll. Fiers was never giving up a run today.
He is one of those guys where he doesn't really have a sample size, so you wouldn't know unless you looked at every game individually.
I caught on to him while in Vegas so I got to see him every start and the Brewers mismanaged him. He hit a rookie wall and they tried to make him a reliever and overworked him.
Since he was on rest today, he was going to be the best pitcher in baseball on this day.
Honestly if I was in vegas with cash I'd have placed half my roll on that one, but I can only bet online and it's not worth having that much in a website imo
Moving on :)
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Posted:
#30
Good luck with your pick today Birds and URZ262. I don't have any plays today yet. Thinking strongly about tailing Birds on Tampa Bay today. In fact....hold on...just placed both F5 and FG Tampa. 
I like Lackey, but I gotta say, St. Louis has been my nemesis lately. Every time I wager on them or against them, they do the opposite. They are the NL version of the Yankees for me. Thus, I'm laying off.
Instead of Arizona F5, I decided to take F5 under 4 in that game. I think Penny is not good for much, but Arizona doesn't seem like they can score a run off Pee Wee Herman right now. Plus playing that double header yesterday and then the travel. Woof. I do like Anderson though and feel he should keep Miami under wraps for 5 innings I hope.
I like Lackey, but I gotta say, St. Louis has been my nemesis lately. Every time I wager on them or against them, they do the opposite. They are the NL version of the Yankees for me. Thus, I'm laying off.
Instead of Arizona F5, I decided to take F5 under 4 in that game. I think Penny is not good for much, but Arizona doesn't seem like they can score a run off Pee Wee Herman right now. Plus playing that double header yesterday and then the travel. Woof. I do like Anderson though and feel he should keep Miami under wraps for 5 innings I hope.
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Posted:
#31
hey lakerz
i'm not sure about STL either, for one thing, they have trouble with LHP and can't be trusted to score that much, I agree with the layoff
I'm looking at some things in the TB game but it's not a big card and nothing jumps at me except I think it might be wise to find a live dog
i'm not sure about STL either, for one thing, they have trouble with LHP and can't be trusted to score that much, I agree with the layoff
I'm looking at some things in the TB game but it's not a big card and nothing jumps at me except I think it might be wise to find a live dog
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Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:
hey lakerz
i'm not sure about STL either, for one thing, they have trouble with LHP and can't be trusted to score that much, I agree with the layoff
I'm looking at some things in the TB game but it's not a big card and nothing jumps at me except I think it might be wise to find a live dog
hey lakerz
i'm not sure about STL either, for one thing, they have trouble with LHP and can't be trusted to score that much, I agree with the layoff
I'm looking at some things in the TB game but it's not a big card and nothing jumps at me except I think it might be wise to find a live dog
Cardinals
OPS vs. Lefties: .729 (10th in MLB)
Padres
OPS vs. Righties: .637 (last in MLB)
Cardinals play much better at home and are in the thick of a pennant race and I expect them to get after it. This was probably the game I felt the best about today. Not a fan of the lineup, but I put the wager on before the lineups came out.
best of luck tonight.
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Posted:
#34
final evening plays (all small regular plays, for 2.50% of bankroll in total) that I have added throughout the afternoon:
Arizona/Miami Under 4.5 F5 (-135) --- 0.50% of Bankroll
Arizona/Miami Under 8 FG (-120) --- 0.50% of Bankroll
Was originally looking at FG, but decided I like F5 as well. Rich price at first glance, but I like the extra half run for 25 points. I like the under on 4 as well. Anderson continues to fly under the radar and dominated the Marlins earlier this season. The prospect of Penny giving up his fair share of runs concerns me somewhat, but the Dbacks haven't been scoring much as of late, with 42 runs through 11 games in August (14 of which came in one game). This just isn't the same offense without Goldy, Prado, and Parra. I am hoping he can get through the lineup once or twice without too much damage. Also, in all 5 of Anderson's road starts the run total has been less than or equal to 7, which includes a start in Colorado.
San Diego/St. Louis Under 8 (-130) --- 0.75% of Bankroll
The line has moved on this one. The under 7.5 is -115/-120 now in my two books. I like the under on 7.5 as well. 8 of the last 10 home games have gone under 7.5 for the Cardinals.
Washington/New York Over 3 F5 (-125) --- 0.75% of Bankroll
Strasburg is a different pitcher on the road. He could very well do great tonight, but until those splits come in, I am going to cap him as a 4+ ERA (good for 2 runs F5) pitcher on the road. Gee had a few rough outings coming back from the DL, but looked better vs. SF and at Philly. Although, both of those offenses had been struggling at the time. I would be surprised to not get at least a wash on this one, but I have had plenty of surprises lately! The over 3.5 is +110 in one of my books. Could be worth a shot, but I am quite partial to 3.
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:
I have been diligently tracking my performance this season.
Run totals vs. Sides
NL vs. AL
Dogs vs. Favorites
Individual Teams
.500+ teams vs. sub-.500 teams
etc.
I wanted a full season of wagering data before I played with sizing differently for PODs. At the end of the day, most people are incapable of sizing bets based on implied probability vs. "realized" probability differentials (bc they don't calculate the differentials).
Highlighting which ones I am most confident in was only in response to people asking me to do so, and I have only been doing it for about a month. Next season I will incorporate sizing based on PODs and RPs (more than likely).
from my first post: "I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season."
Understood brother. Thanks for taking the time to respond, Much appreciated!
Goodluck on tonight's plays!
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:
Whelp, the Miami F5 under was looking good, right up until the pitchers had to go through the batting lineup the second time around. Both Penny and Anderson fell on their faces. Darn. Hope Tampa can come through for me at least.
Whelp, the Miami F5 under was looking good, right up until the pitchers had to go through the batting lineup the second time around. Both Penny and Anderson fell on their faces. Darn. Hope Tampa can come through for me at least.
you're telling me! haha. 3-0, bottom of the 3rd with 1 out… and the pitcher coming up. then runner on 3rd with 2 out and still a 3-0 game… then the wheels came off 
the Nats/Mets over hit nicely though. maybe they will stop scoring in the Zona/Marlins game
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Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:
friars tied it up in the 6th
friars tied it up in the 6th
outcome aside. I really feel that betting on the Padres was an awful idea tonight. If the play was against the STL bats, then the under was the best bet, IMO. Stults is just that bad and he has been rather fortunate tonight. For example, Carpenter has been lacing the ball left and right and has noting to show for it.
the only advantages I found for the Padres in today's game is their bullpen and the Cardinals' lineup tonight (no wong, AJ, or Jay). The latter wasn't known until late. I wouldn't have even consider biting on the Padres unless it was F5 and +175 or more.
It's rare that I will flat out disagree with you, but tonight is one of those instances. That said, baseball is a funny game and we are gambling at the end of the day!
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:
oh sorry bob i thought you just had first five in stl, didn't realize u had FG, thought we both were gunna win
oh sorry bob i thought you just had first five in stl, didn't realize u had FG, thought we both were gunna win
I would have preferred F5, but when I saw the lines last night I knew they wouldn't hold (and they didn't).
and as I type this… thanks a lot Ziegler… 2 outs and nobody on in the bottom of the 8th inning. walk. walk. slow grounder than deflected off the second baseman… under is gone 
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Posted:
#48
So close to hitting that Cardinals RL POD. Boooo… but ,imagine that… two consecutive positive days!
Today's Results, 8/14/2014
Record: 8-6-0 (57%)
Risked / To Win: 11.50 Units / 9.66 Units (avg. line of -119)
Profit: +1.74 Units / +$36.07
Return on Risk: +15.09%
first lock for tomorrow:
Oakland A's +105
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