ALCS Game 4 Stats and Picks (10/16)

Mostly going on gut here. Byrd has traditionally pitched well against Boston, and even though his ERA was over 5 at home in 2007 I am going with this general result so far in October:
Good AL Pitchers in Playoffs = BURN!!!
Bad AL Pitchers in Playoffs = UNDER!!! / GEM!!!

Wakefield should allow a few bombs here -- they average a ton of them. Excluding Lofton, the lineup has 3 HR in 25 ABs.Chokefield is a HR machine. Byrd looks like a retarded Tim Robbins but he should do well today.

Tim Wakefield:

Since 2004, Wakefield is 1-1 against Cleveland in 2 starts. Posted a 3.55 ERA and did not have a start against Cleveland in 2007. 3 HR allowed in 12 2/3 IP against Cleveland hitters.

Tim Wakefield vs:

Grady Sizemore – 0-2 (.000), 1 BB
Asdrubal Cabrera – 0-0
Travis Hafner – 0-7 (.000), 1 BB, 1 K
Victor Martinez – 3-5 (.600), 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ryan Garko – 0-0
Jhonny Peralta – 1-6 (.167), 1 HR
Kenny Lofton – 20-72 (.278), 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 9 K
Trot Nixon – 0-0
Franklin Gutierrez – 0-0
Casey Blake – 1-5 (.200), 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K

Paul Byrd:

Since 2004, Byrd is 4-1 against Boston in 6 starts. Posted a 3.53 ERA against Boston since 2004. In 2007 he was 1-0 with a 1.51 ERA.

Paul Byrd vs:

Dustin Pedroia – 2-3 (.667)
Kevin Youkilis – 1-9 (.111), 3 K
David Ortiz – 8-26 (.308), 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Manny Ramirez – 2-14 (.143), 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 K
Mike Lowell – 8-20 (.400), 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 K
J.D. Drew – 2-10 (.200)
Jason Varitek – 7-18 (.500), 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 K
Coco Crisp – 5-11 (.455), 1 2B, 2 BB
Julio Lugo – 4-10 (.400), 1 2B, 1 K

Picks:
D. Ortiz > T. Hafner H+R+RBI (-130), .65 units.
C. Blake > J.D. Drew H+R+RBI (-130), .65 units.
V. Martinez > K. Youkilis H+R+RBI (-110), .55 units.

Cleveland ML (+100), 1 unit.
Cleveland -1.5 (+190), 1 unit.

Pending:
Cleveland ALCS +160, 1 unit.
Cleveland ALCS +240, 1 unit.