6/3

202-173     +2955

2U TB -141

ATL 1st5 U4.5 +100

STL -114

ATH -1.5 +171 

LAA -145

@Raiders22

              i should check in more often 

Good luck Raiders.  

Tampa Bay is in a current rut at some point you would think....lol good luck 22 

GL Raiders 

@Raiders22

 !!

Well rays overperformed for awhile may not be a rut just a normalization of their performance, good luck raiders my two cents is that you shouldn’t take bad teams with juice aka Laa, you would think they take 1 from Colorado though. Reminds me of Ottawa in hockey, they got high lines often and you know that in the long run betting against them in situations would’ve netted profit. Obviously you are having a good season and don’t need pointers I find juice fails for me with ml in the long run and even short run 

I don't look at it that way but I am not overly statistically minded or competent. I sorta look at teams like stocks (fluctuation, potential, value, expectations) but also a real human entities too. Overperformed I do not really know what that means. They won a lot of games and sustained it. They are having a good season and are a good team in my opinion. Tampa's franchise has been known for being fundamentally sound and competitive since the late 2000s. They are 3-7 in their last 10. Now if they collapse or play .500 baseball rest of the way or worse then I suppose they did overperform. Not accounting for inuries etc...

@ScroopyNoopers

A quick post mortem, as it were, on that game.

It is all about if there is an ‘edge’ for me on the things I look at.

In other words:  is my estimated probability higher than the implied probability of the current odds.

Yes, teams go through hot and cold strakes with pitching and hitting.  When they have a cold streak with both at the same time and play a team that has a hot streak at the same time it can be a recipe for a disaster.

You have to decide what constitutes a streak.  Certainly, Tampa Bay lost 3 to Baltimore.  But in the first game they scored 7 runs.  Then they won 2/3 from LAA and scored 8 and 5 in two of the games.

Then they scored 9 in the first game with Detroit.  Then got shut out yesterday.

Detroit had lost 5 of the last 6, including 2 to LAA.  In that stretch they had scored 1, 1, 3, and 1 runs.

So, I am not so sure either team was on a streak of any sort.

So, ‘form’, as such, was not really a problem.

But when you look at the total records of both it is clear who the better team is.

TB has the second best record +12.2 units.  Detroit the 28th best at -18.7 units.

That is a differential of 30 units.

TB at home has the best record at 10.95 units.  Detroit away has the worst record at -15.95 units.

That is a differential of 27 units.

By most advanced stats I look at, Martinez had the edge in the pitching matchup.  He is their best pitcher.

So, you have a ‘right the ship’ pitcher on the mound after two losses.

Bullpen availability (which is a huge factor a lot of bettors over look) was not a problem.

The issue was not that Melton was shutting them down early.  They traded runs in each of the first two innings and the score was 2-2 after two.

The issue is that Melton got right and the Tampa bats went dead the rest of the way, in the daytime and not at night.  I certainly did not think Melton would pitch 8 innings against the Rays lineup.  But they went stone cold dead and he did.

Just from the open of around -156 to -141 is a 2.4% edge or so.  This coupled with the fact that I had the line closer to -175 made it close to 5.1% edge.  This is enough for me to make it a solid play.

Part of the reason the line opened as low and worked its way down is the fact that folks were looking at the game from yesterday as well and that was factored in.

I just think in a long season that you have to play the edges and the probabilities when they present themselves.

Obviously, you will be wrong and have to just move along.

But when I look at the game afterwards and do not see a clear reason that a team has started a cold streak I am okay with the play.

There is absolutely no doubt it was the wrong play today.  But I think it is the correct play over the long term and would be a winner.

But a loss is a loss.

@ScroopyNoopers

 A very similar situation with the LAA game and pitching M/U, etc.

I just have to play the edges when I think I have them enough to justify a play.

But you are very, very correct that taking bad teams at negative monelyines are horrible longterm -- even against another bad team.

But I think I am getting the better pitcher after a couple of losses.

I also think I am getting the 'better' bad team at a good price.

But who knows 

@MatthewJL46

 Yes, we have seen teams fall completely apart the second half of the season and vice-versa.