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    4/20/16 - Early Under

    12 Next Last»
    KeyElement
    Thereal_BLEEMZ
    jtelemaq
    Jose_Reyes
    justlol
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    12 Next Last»
     
    KeyElement
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 9:48 AM ET #1

    MLB – 2016

    12-13, $ -213.08, – 0.0426% RoR

    4/19 Flat $200.00

    Cubs-Cardinals, Under 4, First 5, -122, Hendricks/Martinez

    Each of these guys has given two quality starts to date and has a low whip and good ground ball ratio, which is important since there will probably be a 13 mph breeze out toward left field. The game will start in cloudy weather with rain possible later, so we definitely want to go 5 innings and be done with it. We have Sam Holbrook behind the plate, who has been a relatively neutral guy in the past but so far this year (in only 3 games) he has been vicious toward the hitters with a 64.52% strike call rate and a 4.42:1 K/BB rate. That could be significant with the Cubs having struck out 13 times last night and the Cardinals almost matching them with 11.

    More later, but I have things to do this morning and the other game I have my eye on is an evening game.

    BOL

    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    MLB – 2016

    12-13, $ -213.08, – 0.0426% RoR

    4/19 Flat $200.00

    Cubs-Cardinals, Under 4, First 5, -122, Hendricks/Martinez

    Each of these guys has given two quality starts to date and has a low whip and good ground ball ratio, which is important since there will probably be a 13 mph breeze out toward left field. The game will start in cloudy weather with rain possible later, so we definitely want to go 5 innings and be done with it. We have Sam Holbrook behind the plate, who has been a relatively neutral guy in the past but so far this year (in only 3 games) he has been vicious toward the hitters with a 64.52% strike call rate and a 4.42:1 K/BB rate. That could be significant with the Cubs having struck out 13 times last night and the Cardinals almost matching them with 11.

    More later, but I have things to do this morning and the other game I have my eye on is an evening game.

    BOL

     
    Thereal_BLEEMZ
    Thereal_BLEEMZ
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 9:58 AM ET #2

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    jtelemaq
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 10:01 AM ET #3

    Shoot I have 3.5 (+110) 
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    Shoot I have 3.5 (+110) 
     
    Jose_Reyes
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 10:28 AM ET #4

    Good luck Key 
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    Good luck Key 
     
    justlol
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 10:34 AM ET #5

    GL key 
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    GL key 
     
    gqsmuv
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 10:36 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by jtelemaq:

    Shoot I have 3.5 (+110) 

    hey KeyElement, what would be the play on this?
    thanks
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtelemaq:

    Shoot I have 3.5 (+110) 

    hey KeyElement, what would be the play on this?
    thanks
     
    El_Maton
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 11:09 AM ET #7

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    Loops33
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 11:12 AM ET #8

    i like it KEy, i capp exactly like you ! BOL
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    i like it KEy, i capp exactly like you ! BOL
     
    RojasBello
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 11:26 AM ET #9

    Nice to meet your pick too
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    Nice to meet your pick too
     
    WussieMan
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 12:29 PM ET #10

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    tonyperaino
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 12:40 PM ET #11

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    eddiegray
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 12:47 PM ET #12

    Seems like a good play
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    Seems like a good play
     
    JEG53
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 12:48 PM ET #13

    I hope this is a good one,
    that rate you were telling me about might not include the 20 bucks a day,a friend told me that what reservations give you is minus that fee and the Agent that checks you in tells you about it,they have a speech and if you care I will PM it or another way.
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    I hope this is a good one,
    that rate you were telling me about might not include the 20 bucks a day,a friend told me that what reservations give you is minus that fee and the Agent that checks you in tells you about it,they have a speech and if you care I will PM it or another way.
     
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 1:12 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

    I hope this is a good one,
    that rate you were telling me about might not include the 20 bucks a day,a friend told me that what reservations give you is minus that fee and the Agent that checks you in tells you about it,they have a speech and if you care I will PM it or another way.
    Why not? I sat through a very good free lunch to get a good deal on my hearing aids, why not a speech I can avoid by removing them? Sort of seems like "poetic justice" in a way. We are firming up plans so go ahead and PM me the details. 
    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

    I hope this is a good one,
    that rate you were telling me about might not include the 20 bucks a day,a friend told me that what reservations give you is minus that fee and the Agent that checks you in tells you about it,they have a speech and if you care I will PM it or another way.
    Why not? I sat through a very good free lunch to get a good deal on my hearing aids, why not a speech I can avoid by removing them? Sort of seems like "poetic justice" in a way. We are firming up plans so go ahead and PM me the details. 
     
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 1:21 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by gqsmuv:


    hey KeyElement, what would be the play on this?
    thanks
    What
    jtelemaq is referring to is that his book did not offer the 4 @ -122, but had dropped the line to 3.5 and was paying +110. The only thing he really exchanged for his +$ figure was a possible push. It is still a good line and worthy of a play. 

    I can endorse 3.5, which is much more prevalent now than it was earlier, but I would not endorse -115 or higher juice, that would be pushing it. BOL 
    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    Quote Originally Posted by gqsmuv:


    hey KeyElement, what would be the play on this?
    thanks
    What
    jtelemaq is referring to is that his book did not offer the 4 @ -122, but had dropped the line to 3.5 and was paying +110. The only thing he really exchanged for his +$ figure was a possible push. It is still a good line and worthy of a play. 

    I can endorse 3.5, which is much more prevalent now than it was earlier, but I would not endorse -115 or higher juice, that would be pushing it. BOL 
     
    tonyperaino
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 1:50 PM ET #16

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    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 2:00 PM ET #17

    Nationals +106, Ross/Chen

    Yes, the Nats have now avenged their earlier loss to Conley and took batting practice versus that lefty last night. Chen must have impressed the betting public with his last outing versus the Braves but the Tigers swiped his lunch and sent him packing, and the Nats projected offense versus lefty is much more similar to the Tigers than the Braves. If I split his two outings to date, guess where Chen lands. Yep, right where I have him rated based on past performance and future probability. I guess bettors expect the Marlins to avenge their earlier loss to Ross, but that is not a given and occurs more often in urban legend than in reality. Ross entered this season with a better prospectus than Chen and has shown no reason for me to downgrade him.

    BOL

    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    Nationals +106, Ross/Chen

    Yes, the Nats have now avenged their earlier loss to Conley and took batting practice versus that lefty last night. Chen must have impressed the betting public with his last outing versus the Braves but the Tigers swiped his lunch and sent him packing, and the Nats projected offense versus lefty is much more similar to the Tigers than the Braves. If I split his two outings to date, guess where Chen lands. Yep, right where I have him rated based on past performance and future probability. I guess bettors expect the Marlins to avenge their earlier loss to Ross, but that is not a given and occurs more often in urban legend than in reality. Ross entered this season with a better prospectus than Chen and has shown no reason for me to downgrade him.

    BOL

     
    cjm2008
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 2:15 PM ET #18

    With you the Nats tonight Key
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    With you the Nats tonight Key
     
    Thebigcat13
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 2:22 PM ET #19

    Well this is a loser in the second inning
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    Well this is a loser in the second inning
     
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 2:24 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by cjm2008:

    With you the Nats tonight Key
    You cashed a ticket yesterday so maybe you are the proverbial good luck charm. I could use a little these days, tough start to the season.


    Pertinent question gentlemen. Where in the heck were all these Cardinal hits yesterday when we needed them?
     
    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjm2008:

    With you the Nats tonight Key
    You cashed a ticket yesterday so maybe you are the proverbial good luck charm. I could use a little these days, tough start to the season.


    Pertinent question gentlemen. Where in the heck were all these Cardinal hits yesterday when we needed them?
     
     
    tinfoils
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 2:30 PM ET #21

    Good luck Key!
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    Good luck Key!
     
    DHall7
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 2:31 PM ET #22

    Hendricks!!
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    Hendricks!!
     
    Hawksman
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 2:47 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by Thebigcat13:

    Well this is a loser in the second inning

    Fading a 14mph wind blowing out is probably not a great idea. Every pop up is carrying to the warning track.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thebigcat13:

    Well this is a loser in the second inning

    Fading a 14mph wind blowing out is probably not a great idea. Every pop up is carrying to the warning track.
     
    Pendo
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 3:29 PM ET #24

    Finally a play I like:
    Nationals +106, Ross/Chen

    Hendrick's stuff ain't good enuf to hold off sweep-avoider Cards.,
    not in 5, and not for 9.

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    Finally a play I like:
    Nationals +106, Ross/Chen

    Hendrick's stuff ain't good enuf to hold off sweep-avoider Cards.,
    not in 5, and not for 9.

     
     
    tonyperaino
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2016 - 3:48 PM ET #25

    Thanks! 
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    Thanks! 
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