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    All Forums | Mixed Martial Arts

    UFC on Fox 15

    OnTheO
    str8edgejedi
    Coreyccr
    Ferrari29
    Qncyk1
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 864
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    OnTheO
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2015 - 11:11 PM ET #1

    86-90 +2.1

    Bets placed this evening because I believe they'll get out of hand (or flip-flop in the women's fight):

    Luke Rockhold -150 over Lyoto Machida 2 to win 1.3
    Patrick Cummins -130 over Ovince St Preux 2 to win 1.5
    Felice Herrig +120 over Paige VanZant 1.5 to win 1.8

    Also lean Dariush, Sullivan, Swanson and Villante.

    I may write-up a bit later this week and will be back with any other picks. 
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    86-90 +2.1

    Bets placed this evening because I believe they'll get out of hand (or flip-flop in the women's fight):

    Luke Rockhold -150 over Lyoto Machida 2 to win 1.3
    Patrick Cummins -130 over Ovince St Preux 2 to win 1.5
    Felice Herrig +120 over Paige VanZant 1.5 to win 1.8

    Also lean Dariush, Sullivan, Swanson and Villante.

    I may write-up a bit later this week and will be back with any other picks. 
     
    str8edgejedi
    str8edgejedi
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 7:21 AM ET #2

    I see most people picking Cummins in the fight with OSP.. I think a lot has to do with OSP's fight with Bader.. The difference in my opinion is the striking and power of Bader.. I think the threat of that helped Bader a lot.. I think OSP should have an advantage on the feet, and if he doesn't have to worry as much about the striking of Cummins, it should help him stop the takedowns..

    And out of curiosity, why Villante? Just a play on the odds?
    Reply
    I see most people picking Cummins in the fight with OSP.. I think a lot has to do with OSP's fight with Bader.. The difference in my opinion is the striking and power of Bader.. I think the threat of that helped Bader a lot.. I think OSP should have an advantage on the feet, and if he doesn't have to worry as much about the striking of Cummins, it should help him stop the takedowns..

    And out of curiosity, why Villante? Just a play on the odds?
     
    OnTheO
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 10:01 AM ET #3

    The Villante play is probably more of a fade of Corey "Beastin 25/8". The guy won the worst season of tuf against the likes of Patrick Walsh and Matt Van Buren in uninspiring wrestling matches. Then he fights a debut middleweight on short notice in his last fight in Justin Jones and has another uninspiring snoozer. Gian was a state champ high school wrestler in a good state (NY) and has an 85% TDD. He can take a shot to land a shot (shown in Maldonado fight), from a good camp (trains with Weidman and Eddie Gordon) 6-2 in his last 8 (only losses to Fabio and OSP), etc. I think Gian is able to negate most of Corey's TD attempts and betters him on the feet.

    As far as Cummins goes, I only think there are a few guys that can prevent him from taking them down and GnPing - Bones, Cormier, Bader, Davis, Rumble, Rashad. I don't put OSP in that category. I imagine it goes to decision but Cummins wins it rather easily.
    Reply
    The Villante play is probably more of a fade of Corey "Beastin 25/8". The guy won the worst season of tuf against the likes of Patrick Walsh and Matt Van Buren in uninspiring wrestling matches. Then he fights a debut middleweight on short notice in his last fight in Justin Jones and has another uninspiring snoozer. Gian was a state champ high school wrestler in a good state (NY) and has an 85% TDD. He can take a shot to land a shot (shown in Maldonado fight), from a good camp (trains with Weidman and Eddie Gordon) 6-2 in his last 8 (only losses to Fabio and OSP), etc. I think Gian is able to negate most of Corey's TD attempts and betters him on the feet.

    As far as Cummins goes, I only think there are a few guys that can prevent him from taking them down and GnPing - Bones, Cormier, Bader, Davis, Rumble, Rashad. I don't put OSP in that category. I imagine it goes to decision but Cummins wins it rather easily.
     
    OnTheO
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 10:02 AM ET #4

    Also, gl Jedi. I'll be looking for your picks!
    Reply
    Also, gl Jedi. I'll be looking for your picks!
     
    str8edgejedi
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 10:18 AM ET #5

    thanks for the analysis, makes sense.

    good luck this week bro, I'll have my picks up sometime today most likely.
    Reply
    thanks for the analysis, makes sense.

    good luck this week bro, I'll have my picks up sometime today most likely.
     
    str8edgejedi
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 10:22 AM ET #6

    btw, thoughts on sterling? I really like him on saturday
    Reply
    btw, thoughts on sterling? I really like him on saturday
     
    OnTheO
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 11:39 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by str8edgejedi:

    btw, thoughts on sterling? I really like him on saturday


    Yeah me too. I don't love fading Mizugaki after that fast loss to Dom, but Sterling is a bad match-up for him. It's pretty safe IMO. Adding:

    Sterling + Gordon + Jacare parlay 2 to win 1.6
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by str8edgejedi:

    btw, thoughts on sterling? I really like him on saturday


    Yeah me too. I don't love fading Mizugaki after that fast loss to Dom, but Sterling is a bad match-up for him. It's pretty safe IMO. Adding:

    Sterling + Gordon + Jacare parlay 2 to win 1.6
     
    Coreyccr
    Coreyccr
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 12:35 PM ET #8

    i pick villante also. u guys should check out my videos

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcjywDDDZ0o 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y-mwJ-V0KE 

    Reply
    i pick villante also. u guys should check out my videos

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcjywDDDZ0o 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y-mwJ-V0KE 

     
    Ferrari29
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 2:58 PM ET #9

    Also Villante was neck and neck with OSP until the eye poke and the ref not sure what to do about it!!!
    Reply
    Also Villante was neck and neck with OSP until the eye poke and the ref not sure what to do about it!!!
     
    Qncyk1
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 6:41 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

    Also Villante was neck and neck with OSP until the eye poke and the ref not sure what to do about it!!!

    what you do about it is if villante wins the first round you hedge out in live betting as he has horrible cardio

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1jibgg_fabio-maldonado-vs-gian-villante-ufc-fight-night-shogun-vs-henderson-23-03-14_sport

    gassed out against 170 larkin as well.

    https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Lorenz_Larkin_vs_Gian_Villante_PT_1_2_Strikeforce_Challengers_16/10020454

    https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Lorenz_Larkin_vs_Gian_Villante_PT_2_2_Strikeforce_Challengers_16/10020455
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

    Also Villante was neck and neck with OSP until the eye poke and the ref not sure what to do about it!!!

    what you do about it is if villante wins the first round you hedge out in live betting as he has horrible cardio

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1jibgg_fabio-maldonado-vs-gian-villante-ufc-fight-night-shogun-vs-henderson-23-03-14_sport

    gassed out against 170 larkin as well.

    https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Lorenz_Larkin_vs_Gian_Villante_PT_1_2_Strikeforce_Challengers_16/10020454

    https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Lorenz_Larkin_vs_Gian_Villante_PT_2_2_Strikeforce_Challengers_16/10020455
     
    OnTheO
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 7:47 PM ET #11

    ^^ that is one concern I've considered and you're right, he's a bit gassy. The three biggest things I've found that gas me in training are: 1) failed takedown attempts - trying to drag a guy off the cage is a bytch, 2) opponent volume - constantly avoiding and eating shots "keeping on your bike", and 3) body shots - it effects your breathing because it's a gasp with every shot. With Lorenz, Gian was something like 1 of 5 on TDs. Fabio is a volume and body shot king and threw something like 250 shots in their fight. Corey's not a volume guy and Gian would be stupid to try constant TDs here. I'm not saying its impossible that Gian gasses, just some things to think about.
    Reply
    ^^ that is one concern I've considered and you're right, he's a bit gassy. The three biggest things I've found that gas me in training are: 1) failed takedown attempts - trying to drag a guy off the cage is a bytch, 2) opponent volume - constantly avoiding and eating shots "keeping on your bike", and 3) body shots - it effects your breathing because it's a gasp with every shot. With Lorenz, Gian was something like 1 of 5 on TDs. Fabio is a volume and body shot king and threw something like 250 shots in their fight. Corey's not a volume guy and Gian would be stupid to try constant TDs here. I'm not saying its impossible that Gian gasses, just some things to think about.
     
    Ferrari29
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 9:26 PM ET #12

    Fabio has a way of making guys gas. Had
    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

    Quote Originally Posted by str8edgejedi:

    btw, thoughts on sterling? I really like him on saturday
    Yeah me too. I don't love fading Mizugaki after that fast loss to Dom, but Sterling is a bad match-up for him. It's pretty safe IMO. Adding:Sterling + Gordon + Jacare parlay 2 to win 1.6



    Is this a parlay out of you???? Now I'm wondering!!!!
    Reply
    Fabio has a way of making guys gas. Had
    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

    Quote Originally Posted by str8edgejedi:

    btw, thoughts on sterling? I really like him on saturday
    Yeah me too. I don't love fading Mizugaki after that fast loss to Dom, but Sterling is a bad match-up for him. It's pretty safe IMO. Adding:Sterling + Gordon + Jacare parlay 2 to win 1.6



    Is this a parlay out of you???? Now I'm wondering!!!!
     
    OnTheO
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 9:29 PM ET #13

    It is. I used to post a few here than I quit playing them and things went downhill. I need to be open to them when looking. I think that's a good one. You?
    Reply
    It is. I used to post a few here than I quit playing them and things went downhill. I need to be open to them when looking. I think that's a good one. You?
     
    Ferrari29
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 10:48 PM ET #14

    Neither one of my sites let me play them, not sure if that's good or bad??? Might jump on 5dimes just to play round robins in May. About your parlay, Sterling is the key!!!
    Reply
    Neither one of my sites let me play them, not sure if that's good or bad??? Might jump on 5dimes just to play round robins in May. About your parlay, Sterling is the key!!!
     
    Ferrari29
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2015 - 10:54 PM ET #15

    I should say a wheel bet, my bad. I'll have money for 5dimes when Weidman fights in May!!
    Reply
    I should say a wheel bet, my bad. I'll have money for 5dimes when Weidman fights in May!!
     
    ParlayJoe17
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    Posted: Apr. 16, 2015 - 1:53 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

    ^^ that is one concern I've considered and you're right, he's a bit gassy. The three biggest things I've found that gas me in training are: 1) failed takedown attempts - trying to drag a guy off the cage is a bytch, 2) opponent volume - constantly avoiding and eating shots "keeping on your bike", and 3) body shots - it effects your breathing because it's a gasp with every shot. With Lorenz, Gian was something like 1 of 5 on TDs. Fabio is a volume and body shot king and threw something like 250 shots in their fight. Corey's not a volume guy and Gian would be stupid to try constant TDs here. I'm not saying its impossible that Gian gasses, just some things to think about.

    Man you have talked me into betting on this lug again, which I swore I wouldn't do after the Fabio fight.  I have never seen a fighter so gassed.  Guy was 5 sec from being TKO'd by Flabbio due to sheer exhaustion.  I was so high on this guy due to his athletic background.  I know cardio can be improved - hopefully he's been working hard.  He's still young and this time a sizeable dog.  Oh well.

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

    ^^ that is one concern I've considered and you're right, he's a bit gassy. The three biggest things I've found that gas me in training are: 1) failed takedown attempts - trying to drag a guy off the cage is a bytch, 2) opponent volume - constantly avoiding and eating shots "keeping on your bike", and 3) body shots - it effects your breathing because it's a gasp with every shot. With Lorenz, Gian was something like 1 of 5 on TDs. Fabio is a volume and body shot king and threw something like 250 shots in their fight. Corey's not a volume guy and Gian would be stupid to try constant TDs here. I'm not saying its impossible that Gian gasses, just some things to think about.

    Man you have talked me into betting on this lug again, which I swore I wouldn't do after the Fabio fight.  I have never seen a fighter so gassed.  Guy was 5 sec from being TKO'd by Flabbio due to sheer exhaustion.  I was so high on this guy due to his athletic background.  I know cardio can be improved - hopefully he's been working hard.  He's still young and this time a sizeable dog.  Oh well.

     

     
    Ferrari29
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    Posted: Apr. 16, 2015 - 3:23 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by ParlayJoe17:

    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

    ^^ that is one concern I've considered and you're right, he's a bit gassy. The three biggest things I've found that gas me in training are: 1) failed takedown attempts - trying to drag a guy off the cage is a bytch, 2) opponent volume - constantly avoiding and eating shots "keeping on your bike", and 3) body shots - it effects your breathing because it's a gasp with every shot. With Lorenz, Gian was something like 1 of 5 on TDs. Fabio is a volume and body shot king and threw something like 250 shots in their fight. Corey's not a volume guy and Gian would be stupid to try constant TDs here. I'm not saying its impossible that Gian gasses, just some things to think about.

    Man you have talked me into betting on this lug again, which I swore I wouldn't do after the Fabio fight.  I have never seen a fighter so gassed.  Guy was 5 sec from being TKO'd by Flabbio due to sheer exhaustion.  I was so high on this guy due to his athletic background.  I know cardio can be improved - hopefully he's been working hard.  He's still young and this time a sizeable dog.  Oh well.

    Lmao Joe!!!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ParlayJoe17:

    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

    ^^ that is one concern I've considered and you're right, he's a bit gassy. The three biggest things I've found that gas me in training are: 1) failed takedown attempts - trying to drag a guy off the cage is a bytch, 2) opponent volume - constantly avoiding and eating shots "keeping on your bike", and 3) body shots - it effects your breathing because it's a gasp with every shot. With Lorenz, Gian was something like 1 of 5 on TDs. Fabio is a volume and body shot king and threw something like 250 shots in their fight. Corey's not a volume guy and Gian would be stupid to try constant TDs here. I'm not saying its impossible that Gian gasses, just some things to think about.

    Man you have talked me into betting on this lug again, which I swore I wouldn't do after the Fabio fight.  I have never seen a fighter so gassed.  Guy was 5 sec from being TKO'd by Flabbio due to sheer exhaustion.  I was so high on this guy due to his athletic background.  I know cardio can be improved - hopefully he's been working hard.  He's still young and this time a sizeable dog.  Oh well.

    Lmao Joe!!!
     
    OnTheO
    OnTheO
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2015 - 5:35 PM ET #18

    Brandao -160 over Hettes 1.6 to win 1
    Villante +320 over Anderson .5 to win 1.6

    That'll probably be about it. Gl!
    Reply
    Brandao -160 over Hettes 1.6 to win 1
    Villante +320 over Anderson .5 to win 1.6

    That'll probably be about it. Gl!
     
    Ferrari29
    Ferrari29
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2015 - 6:04 PM ET #19

    Good luck O!!!!
    Reply
    Good luck O!!!!
     
    MR219
    MR219
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    Posts: 6706
    Posted: Apr. 17, 2015 - 6:56 PM ET #20

    BOL O! 
    Reply
    BOL O! 
     
    ctm1985
    ctm1985
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2015 - 7:25 PM ET #21

    I'm also surprised Corey is that high.  Gian could take it but I was so choked after that Maldonado fight.  Good luck man!
    Reply
    I'm also surprised Corey is that high.  Gian could take it but I was so choked after that Maldonado fight.  Good luck man!
     
    sharpstick
    sharpstick
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2015 - 8:59 PM ET #22

    Reply
     
     
    OnTheO
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2015 - 3:20 PM ET #23

    86-90 +2.1

    Luke Rockhold +1.3
    Patrick Cummins -2
    Felice Herrig -1.5
    Brandao +1
    Villante +1.3
    Parlay -2 

    3-3 -1.9

    89-93 +0.2 units

    On to the next...
    Reply
    86-90 +2.1

    Luke Rockhold +1.3
    Patrick Cummins -2
    Felice Herrig -1.5
    Brandao +1
    Villante +1.3
    Parlay -2 

    3-3 -1.9

    89-93 +0.2 units

    On to the next...
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