Posted:
#1
55-43 +19.0 current
A whole bunch of mediocre events coming up. I'm gonna try to squeeze out a profit.
Leans for the UFC FN - the old lady and I will be attending on Valentines Day so my hat's off to her for being a good woman. I'll make sure not to focus on any ring girl's as$.
Miller/Holloway O2.5 (-145)
This is a pretty obvious case of a very good tech striker (Holloway) with volume against a superior grappler who wants to drag it down. Neither gets finished very often, Miller isn't great at takedowns, and holloway is decent at takedown defense and hip scoots back to the cage. The fight is dog or pass, but I think this makes it fairly easily to decision.
Prazeres (+145) over Lee
Lee is a young super-athlete, but he tends to prefer using his athletic abilities in the grappling scrambles more than in the striking game. Unfortunately, I believe Prazeres is better in both striking and grappling and will be much stronger on top than Lee. I see this as a top control decision or sub win by the Brazilian.
Walsh (-165) over Kelly
I keep betting against Kelly and losing. The guy is on the wrong side of 35, is battling a bunch of chronic injuries, and is not the greatest striker or athlete. He is an olympic judoka for Australia though and has surprised me before, I just like Walsh in every area here.
Escudero (-115) over Lima, Skelly (-185) over Alers, Makovsky (-110) over Elliot
At the end of the day, I like the wrestling of all 3 of these guys to get it done.
I also like Thatch, but I'm watching the line. I fell like the line is moving because Benson is the bigger name and thus, people are betting Benson on plus money somewhat blind. I prefer Thatch is the match-up, but if he gets to plus money and climbs, it's likely a pass. If he sticks or builds, I'll likely play it.
Good luck.
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