UFC Fight Night 71

Sam Sicilia -165

I like Sicilia to win this fight, but it's mainly a bet against Meza. Meza has not impressed me with his last 3 fights including a decision win over a UFC debut fighter, which followed decision losses to Chico Camus and Sergio Pettis. Sicilia has traded wins & losses over his last few fights, but having won 3 of his last 5 while facing better opponents, I like him.

Matt Dwyer +325

I never thought I'd pick against Alan Jouban, who I'm very high on, but the price is right for Dwyer. Both guys are knockout artists- Jouban is 2-1 UFC with both wins by R1 KO. Dwyer is 1-1 UFC with both fights ending by KO. Overall, Jouban is 11-3 with 8 KO wins, while Dwyer is 8-0 with 8 KO wins. Dwyer's 6'4" frame should be able to control the exchanges against a 6'0" Jouban. Dwyer is also younger at 25 to a 32 year old Jouban. At +325 I'll take the bigger, younger, undefeated KO artist.

Marion Reneau +170

I've made money on Reneau in her first 2 UFC fights and will continue to ride her tomorrow, despite her matchup with boxing champion Holly Holm. Holm beat Raquel Pennington by split decision in her debut, but Reneau is on a higher level than Rocky. Reneau is very slick jiu jitsu, and I think that will be the difference here. She won't engage in a boxing match with the champ, and I think Holm is ill-prepared for MMA. 

Tony Ferguson -190

I will bet on Ferguson on every single fight as he tears through the 155 division. Thomson has lost 2 of his 3 UFC fights while Ferguson is 8-1 in the UFC. I think -190 is ridiculous, should be -300 easily. Take advantage.

Frank Mir +155

I might catch some crap for this one, but I love Frank Mir. Todd Duffee is one bad dude, with 100% of his fights ending by KO/TKO (9-2). He's won his first 2 UFC fights with a year layoff between them. But he beat Philip De Fries and Anthony Hamilton: hardly a whose who. Meanwhile people are off Frank because of his recent 4 loss streak, but that includes Dos Santos, Cormier, Barnett, Overeem. He took a year off and came back nicely against Bigfoot. If this fight stays standing, it could be a short night for Mir. But I trust the old dog to make this a jiu jitsu match, where he's as dominant as anyone. F*ck it, give me a prop bet whether Mir breaks a bone or a joint!

That's what I get for rushing through numbers. But I'll still take him.