UFC Fight Night 70 Write-Up / Predictions

Leandro Silva v. Lewis Gonzalez

Leandro Silva is coming off an overturned win over Drew Dober in which he had a pretend choke and one of the worst referees in MMA history stopped the fight. Leandro Silva further defended his false victory by claiming that Dober went to sleep. It was clearly not the case and he had absolutely no pressure on Dober’s neck. The fight was close in the first round, though neither fighter looked particularly dangerous. He was able to defend Dober’s takedown attempts, and and didn’t seem phased by any of Dober’s strikes. Silva took Dober down twice in the 2nd round and was able to control Dober fairly well. As soon as Dober escaped, Leandro dropped the guillotine and landed in half guard, and the incompetent ref stopped the fight. In his previous fight against Charlie Brenneman, Silva looked good with his grappling and handed Brenneman his 5th straight loss. Brenneman was able to take Silva down  a few times, but Silva was able to maintain his guard and eventually reverse positions and get back up. Brenneman ended up desperately fighting for a single leg, and ended up giving up his back against the cage and Silva took full advantage, immediately sinking a rear-naked choke.

Lewis Gonzales is making his UFC debut with his most recent experience coming in the WSOF. He won 2 of 3, with 2 decision wins and a KO loss. In his pro career, he is 10-1 with 7 wins by finish. He’s a high school level wrestling champion and 6x high school All American.

This fight was added late due to the major issues affecting this card. I’m going with Leandro Silva, who has 4 fights in the UFC and would be 2-2 without his win over Dober being reversed. He’s also a black belt in BJJ under Rocian Gracie. I think his Gracie level jiu jitsu and UFC experience will make the difference over the guy making his debut.

My Pick: Leandro Silva (Submission)

Alex Oliveira v. Joe Merritt

Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira is quickly making a name for himself, with his first 2 fights in the UFC coming in March and May of 2015. He doesn’t just share Cerrone’s nickname, he’s clearly on a mission to match his status as one of the most active fighters ever. His first fight resulted in a round 3 Submission loss by armbar to Gilbert Burns. He showed good striking in that fight and was definitely winning that area, but couldn’t hang with Burns’ jiu jitsu (Burns is a 4x BJJ world champ). He showed improvement in his next fight in which he stood tall to KJ Noons’ strikes before taking Noons’ back while standing, slamming him down multiple times before eventually sinking a rear naked choke.

Joe Merritt is making his UFC debut after going 6-0 professionally in small regionals. One bright spot in his young career is his 100% TKO rate in those 6 wins. He is an obviously striker and has a blue belt in BJJ. In watching this kid’s amateur and early pro videos, I really like what I see. He stands toe to toe with bigger, stronger opponents and has excellent striking from the clinch. He will also have a size advantage over Oliviera.

This is a late notice addition to the card due to VISA issues, and is a hard fight to pick. When I sat down to write this, I was prepared to rave about Oliviera’s improvement and predict a domination over a young fighter making his debut. The obvious play is Oliviera with his 2 fights in the UFC against Merritt making his debut. Oliveira has shown good striking and an improving jiu jitsu game. But the video I watched on Merritt was great, and Joe Merritt looks to be a very dangerous striker. I think this will be a step up in competition for both fighters. Cowboy will have the jiu jitsu advantage if he can take the fight to the floor, but they’re both only blue belts. I believe Oliviera will be outmatched on the feet, and that’s where this fight will be decided. That is, unless Merritt crumbles in his debut on the big stage. But he played college football at UL Monroe, so he’s been on a big stage before.

My Pick: Joe Merritt (TKO)

Hacran Dias v. Levan Makashvili

Hacran is a Shooto champion who has struggled since joining the UFC. While going 20-1 professionally before being signed, he’s gone 2-2 in the UFC with all 4 fights going to decision in a W-L-L-W pattern. He is coming off a win over Darren Elkins, where he took Elkins down 5 times and did a good job controlling him on the ground. He trains with Brazilian royalty in Jose Aldo and Renan Barao.

Makashvili was a top prospect for the UFC and won a split decision in his debut in Manila back in May against Mark Eddiva. He took the fight on short notice in place of Alex White, which was only on May 16th. Makashvili showed off competency in all the relevant skillsets: wrestling, grappling, and striking. He seems to swing for the fences with every punch, but his accuracy wasn’t great. He really shined in the clinch and with wrestling. He was able to control Ediva in the clinch and landed numerous takedowns in the latter half of the fight, and won the split decision.

It’s hard to bet against Hacran Dias, even with his modest 2-2 UFC record. Dias had the most trouble with Nik Lentz, who took him to the ground 4 times. Levan Makshvili’s greatest strength is his wrestling, so he is a live underdog in this fight. To me, this is a pick’em fight. I’m going to lean with Dias, the more experienced fighter.

The safe bet here is the over / fight going the distance.

My Pick: Hacran Dias (decision)

Steve Bosse v. Thiago Santos

Steve Bosse is making his UFC debut after going 10-1 in the regional circuits with finishes in 9 of his 10 wins (8 by KO/TKO). He’s coming off a layoff of more than 2 years, with his last fight being May 2013. His fight prior was October 2011, and previous to that in June 2010. This makes his fight with Santos his 3rd fight in 5 years.

Thiago is 10-3 on his career, with a UFC record of 2-2. He is coming off a TKO victory over Andy Enz. Both of his UFC wins came by TKO, and his 2 losses are to recognizable names in Uriah Hall and Cezar Ferreira. His last fight was Jan 31st so he should be pretty fresh. Santos looked pretty good in his last fight, cracking Enz with a nice body kick which allowed him to finish Enz with a flurry of strikes.

I’m with Thiago Santos on this one. His last 2 losses came to good fighters, and he’s not fighting one of those this weekend. Additionally, I think Steve Bosse making his UFC debut with 2 years of ring rust does not bode well for his chances.

My Prediction: Thiago Santos (TKO)

Eddie Gordon v. Antonio Carlos Jr.

Eddie Gordon was the TUF 19 middleweight winner, but now is riding back to back losses, which make him 1-2 in his UFC career. His last fight was a split decision loss to Chris Dempsey, which followed a R2 knockout loss to Josh Samman. In the TUF 19 Finale, a year ago, he finished Dhiego Lima with a R1 knockout. His last fight was close, but Gordon came up short. He was able to land a few takedowns and keep up somewhat in the striking game. His December fight against Josh Samman was a sloppy performance. He came out swinging for the fences with every shot and going after takedowns, but was incapable of doing anything whatsoever and was stood up multiple times for inactivity. When Herb Dean stood them up in round 2, Samman almost immediately landed a head kick that knocked Gordon out cold before he hit the ground.

Carlos was the TUF Brazil 3 heavyweight winner and is one of the top Jiu Jitsu competitors in the sports. He’s a black belt and a world champion, Brazilian champion, and Pan American champion. He lost his 2nd UFC bout to Patrick Cummins, where he was completely dominated by Cummins amazing wrestling. This was the first loss in his career, and he undoubtedly has been working on his wrestling over the last 6 months. His last fight was also at 205 against Cummins, which was already a drop, and he’s now moving to 185 against Gordon.

Alot of this depends on how the weight cut goes for Carlos. He will have the height and reach advantage over Gordon, so he should be able to avoid the heavy strikes that Gordon throws. Gordon’s wrestling could pose a problem for Carlos, however I don’t think we can really compare his loss to Cummins to Gordon. I believe Gordon will take the fight to the ground and will regret it when Carlos submits him from his back.

My Prediction: Antonio Carlos Jr. (Submission)

Lorenz Larkin v. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Larkin is coming off a solid first round TKO win over John Howard in January. However this fight ended a 3 fight losing streak, and he’s only notched 2 wins on 6 fights within the UFC. His most notable win was at middleweight in Strikeforce where he won a decision over Robbie Lawler. His last loss came to Derek Brunson, where he was winning in the striking but was takendown several times by Brunson and wasn’t able to win on the ground.

Santiago got destroyed by Ryan LaFlare in his UFC debut, where he spent the vast majority of the fight on his back. He couldn’t do anything to stop LaFlare’s takedowns and he ate strike after strike while on his back. However in his 2 fights since, he has resurged with a R1 KO over Wendell Oliveira and a decision win over Sean Strickland in his last outing. His win over Oliveira was fantastic as his chin withstood a few big shots but Ponzinibbio kept going and he knocked out Oliveira before he hit the ground. He had a serious size disadvantage against Strickland, but was able to stay aggressive and close the distance to land some heavy strikes. When taken down, he was able to get up very quickly which showed a nice improvement over his debut against LaFlare. His striking looked great and his aggression was very high. The Argentinian is also a BJJ black belt.

I like both of these guys, but I’m strongly leaning on Santiago in this fight. I would probably lean to him at even money, favoring his 2-1 UFC record over Larkin’s 2-4 record. However Larkin is a -210 favorite right now, so this bet is an easy one to make. I think the two are closely matched in striking, but the only weakness Santiago has shown was when he was outwrestled by LaFlare, and Larkin isn’t a wrestler. The safe bet is fight goes under 2.5 / inside the distance.

My Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio (inside the distance)

Lyoto Machida v. Yoel Romero

There’s not much I can say about Lyoto Machida as a fighter, as he’s one of the most experienced and most loved fighters in MMA today, despite drinking his own piss. The Dragon is coming off a tough loss to one of the hottest fighters and now title contender in Luke Rockhold. Rockhold caught Lyoto in a nasty rear-naked choke in the second round, though he was clearly in control and winning the entire fight. This fight followed an amazing TKO over C.B. Dolloway, which was setup with a textbook Karate kick to Dollaway’s liver, which Machida followed up with a series of strikes. Rewind further to 3 fights ago, and you will find a gem of a fight on July 5th last year in a 5 round war with Chris Weidman, which was a decision loss for Lyoto. Lyoto has won 3 of his last 5 in total, which include the Dolloway fight and a decision over Gegard Mousasi and R1 KO of Mark Munoz.

Everyone loves Machida and I’m no exception, but he’s hard to analyze at this stage because his wins have come over less-than-stellar fighters, but his losses have come to the reigning champion and the guy whose next to fight that reigning champion.

Yoel Romero is a year older than Machida at 38, though he’s still the younger fighter career wise as  he only went pro in 2009 and has only had 5 fights in the UFC and 10 fights as a pro. He is 10-1 career with a 5-0 record in the UFC. Those 5 wins include 4 finishes by KO or TKO. His last fight was controversial though, because he seemed to be quite gassed at the end of round 2 and appeared to be deliberately stalling the start of round 3. Kennedy nearly finished Romero and was saved by the bell, and probably wouldn’t have survived another 10 seconds. Then between rounds, Romero’s corner took extra time and Romero stayed sitting on his stool while Kennedy was standing up ready to start the round. Frankly, he should have been disqualified right then and there. But he wasn’t, and Romero immediately came out and TKO’d Kennedy early in round 3.

There are a few keys to this fight. Firstly, Lyoto has won 3 of his last 5 with the 2 losses coming to world class fighters in champion Weidman and contender Luke Rockhold. His 2 losses before those were to Phil Davis where he was outwrestled, and to the dominant champ Jon Jones.

Secondly, this is a 5 round fight. Romero could barely make it out of the 2nd round in his last fight and had to outwardly cheat to survive. Lyoto on the other hand has gone the distance many times and has went 5 rounds multiple times.

No matter how good Romero has looked and regardless of his undefeated UFC record, he’s never faced a veteran like Lyoto, and Lyoto only loses to world class fighters. Yoel ain’t world class by any stretch of the imagination.

My Pick: Lyoto Machida (inside the distance)