UFC Fight Night 68 Write-up / Predictions

Joe Proctor v. Justin Edwards

This is an interesting fight with both fighters absolutely needing this win. Both fighters have a common opponent in Ramsey Nijem, who scored decision wins over both these guys.

Joe Proctor has won 3 of 5 in the UFC, coming off his 2nd UFC loss to Yancy Medeiros. Proctor finished 2 of his 3 UFC wins, with a 60% finish rate on his pro career. His skill lies in his striking, which is evidenced by the fact he has landed 0 takedowns in his UFC career. He’s usually able to keep the fight standing though, as he’s only been taken down 6 times with 5 of those coming from Ramsey Nijem.

Justin Edwards has only won 2 of his 6 UFC fights, and I imagine he will be cut from the UFC if he loses this fight. He’s coming off a streak of 2 losses, including a decision loss to Nijem and R1 TKO by Brandon Thatch. Prior to entering the UFC, he was undefeated 6-0 professionally, which really shows that he can’t hang with the jump in competition. 5 of his 6 early career wins came by submission, but that hasn’t translated into the UFC with only 2 wins and 1 of them by submission.

Edwards’ only chance to win this fight is submission. He’s had 0 takedowns landed in his last 4 UFC fights combined, and Proctor has shown strong takedown defense lately. I think Proctor wins by KO or TKO within the first 2 rounds.

My Pick: Joe Proctor (TKO)

Chris Wade v. Christos Giagos

This is another interesting matchup on paper, but will likely be a very boring fight. Both fighters are entering the octagon for the 3rd time. Wade has won both of his UFC appearances with a submission and decision victories. Giagos lost his debut with a submission loss to Gilbert Burns, but bounced back with a submission victory of his own against Jorge de Oliveira.

Chris Wade is the better fighter on paper, but he’s not exactly a finisher with his 9 wins consisting of 6 decisions and 3 submissions. He uses his wrestling like most fighters with strong wrestling backgrounds: he tends to win fights with takedowns, top control, and ground & pound. He looked insane in his UFC debut, a fight in which not a single punch was thrown. He immediately took Carrizosa down with a sick Judo throw, landing in side control and sinking a guillotine about a minute later, that put Carrizosa to sleep.

Giagos has looked very good in his last fight, despite his submission loss to Gilbert Burns (a 4x BJJ world champ). His last outing was a road trip to Brazil where he beat the hometown favorite Jorge De Olveira. He’s a former RFA LW champion and has finished 9 of his 11 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 Submission). Giagos is very good with his striking and Jiu Jitsu as well, having won 4 gold medals in BJJ competition.

It’s hard to pick against Chris Wade with his wrestling skills. But he has an absolutely pathetic 33% finish rate compared to Giagos 81% career finish rate. Giagos has excellent BJJ though, so Wade may not be so quick to go to the ground. I’m a BJJ guy and frankly, despise wrestlers, so I’m going against the grain and taking Giagos. Don’t follow me on this pick, I’m betting with my heart!

My Pick; Christos Giagos (submission)

Brian Ebersole v. Omari Akhmedov

Brian Ebersole is hardly a newcomer with 67 professional fights in his career. He’s coming off a narrow split decision win, which broke a 2 decision losing streak. Ebersole is a former NCAA D1 wrestler and entered MMA back in 2000. While he has a 76% win rate and 66% finish rate on his career, he’s 5-2 in the UFC with only 1 finish. In other words, he’s an aging, boring wrestler.

Omari Akhmedov is another grappling murderer fighting out of Russia. If you have read my previous write-ups, you probably know I love masters of BJJ and masters of Sambo. Say hello to Omari Akhmedov, who has won multiple world championships in Sambo & Pankration. He’s tight with Khabib and they train back in Makhachkala.

I think it’s clear where I am going with this. Omari Akhmedov is going to beat Brian Ebersole. However, Ebersole hasn’t been finished since 2008 (by Hector Lombard, no less) so I have to say this will be a decision. I’d love to see the old guy get choked out though!

My Pick: Omari Akhmedov (decision)

Shawn Jordan v. Derrick Lewis

This fight is going to end in a knockout, obviously. The question is who will win this apparent coin flip, so let’s look at some stats.

Shawn Jordan is 17-6 professionally, giving him a career win rate of 73.91% with a 94.12% finish rate. He’s gone 5-3 in the UFC which gives him a 62.5% UFC win rate and 100% finish rate. He lands 3.09 Strikes/minute while absorbing 3.19. His striking accuracy is 51.93% and has a 48.13% defense rate. Shawn Jordan played football for the LSU Tigers and should be the fan favorite.

Derrick Lewis is 12-3 pro and 3-1 in the UFC. He has a career 80% win rate with career 100% finish rate. His win rate in the UFC is 75%. He lands 4.86 strikes/minute while absorbing 1.48. He has 65.08% striking accuracy and 34.21% defense.

Both fighters suffered their last loss to a common opponent in Matt Mitrione, and both were by first round knockout. They both have a common TKO win over Jack May, though Lewis did his in the first round vs Jordan’s coming in the 3rd.

Lewis has the better stats on paper and has the better price on the books, so he’s my pick. The safe bet on this fight is fight does not go the distance, or under 1.5

My Pick: Derrick Lewis (KO)

Francisco Rivera v. Alex Caceres

Rivera is on a 2 fight losing streak, coming off a loss to Uriah Faber that was predicated on a nasty eye poke that left him with a cracked retina and a bruise on his eyeball. He was winning the fight until that point. This followed a decision loss to Takeya Mizugaki, which ended a 2 fight win streak (both by TKO). He has 3 wins in the UFC, though it would be 4 had he not received a N/C for a failed drug test.

Bruce Leeroy is also on a 2 fight losing streak, including a loss by rear naked choke to Uriah Faber. However these losses follow a 4 fight win streak, which would have been 5 except Caceres failed a drug test and received a N/C of his own. His last win came against Sergio Pettis, a submission win by rear naked choke.

The safe bet here is fight doesn’t go the distance / under 2.5 rounds. Each fighter has a 70% finish rate on their career and their losses by finish are 75% and 71.43%. Rivera has the advantage here statistically. Rivera is 10-4 to Caceres’ 10-7, though Rivera could easily be 11-4 if not for the Faber eye poke.

My Pick: Francisco Rivera (TKO)

Joe Soto v. Anthony Birchak

Joe Soto is finally back! He is coming off a loss in his UFC debut, which came under tough circumstances. Dillashaw was set to make his first title defense in a rematch to Renan Barao, but Barao dropped from the fight after suffering health issues during his weight cut. Joe Soto stepped in on 24 hours notice in his UFC debut, in a title fight! He put up a great fight, but lost by KO in the 5th round. In my opinion, even going to the 5th round was impressive given the circumstances and the strength of his opponent. Dillashaw ended his 6 fight win streak, of which 5 were wins by finish (4 Sub, 1 TKO, 1 Dec). Soto is a former Bellator champion and has a BJJ brown belt.

Birchak is coming off a loss in his UFC debut as well, except he lost to Ian Entwistle by submission (heel hook) in the first round. His debut ended a 5 win streak, which included 3 TKOs and 1 Submission. Birchak is a 4x Greco Roman Wrestling champ and has a purple belt in BJJ.

My Pick: Soto inside the distance

Thiago Tavares v. Brian Ortega

Thiago is on a 2 win streak, both by rear naked choke. He has 4 wins in his last 5 fights, with the loss coming by TKO to Khabib Nurmagomedov. On his career, he has a 79% Win rate (19-5) and a nearly 79% finish rate. He’s gone 9-5 in the UFC, good for a 64% win rate and 55.56% finish rate. He holds black belts in BJJ and Judo.

Brian Ortega is one of my favorite prospects right now. He’s 8-0 with 1 NC. He won his UFC debut by submission, but had his win overturned due to a failed drug test. Don’t let that take away from his skills. This guy is one of the top BJJ Black Belts at Gracie Jiu Jitsu. He is an instructor there alongside Rener and Ryron Gracie. And the nick name T-City? Well that comes from his perfect triangle choke techniques. Search youtube for “flying triangle” and you’ll see some of this guy’s sick BJJ skills.

This is going to be a Jiu Jitsu exhibition match between two high level black belts. I think Ortega has the higher credentials, practically a member of the Gracie family. With the underdog odds, he’s probably the best value bet on this card. EIther way, this fight will NOT go the distance, so take the under 2.5 / inside the distance for the safe bet.

My Pick: Brian Ortega (submission)

Dustin Porier v. Yancy Medeiros

This is an awesome fight, and I don’t even want to make a pick because I love both of these guys.

Dustin Porier is 17-4 with an 82% finish rate on his career, and since joining the UFC has gone 9-3 with 6 wins by finish. He’s coming off a KO win over Carlos Ferreira only 2 months ago. He also holds a brown belt in BJJ.

Yancy Medeiros is becoming a fan favorite, coming off 2 submission wins in his last 2 fights. He had a rough start in the UFC with 2 losses and 1 NC in his first 3 fights, but is now trending up. He failed a drug test for cannabis in his N/C. Unfortunately, Yancy Medeiros missed weight for this fight and will be giving 20% of his purse to Porier. Yancy trains with the Diaz brothers, and is starting to look like them with these setbacks. But he has also adopted their ability to secure vicious submissions, as evidenced in his last 2 fights.

Dustin Porier is fighting in his home state of Louisana and will definitely have the crowd on his side. He’s better on paper, but Yancy is currently on an upswing and hasn’t realized his full potential. I like Porier to win, but the safe bet here is fight doesn’t go the distance.

My Pick: Fight ends inside distance (Porrier)

Ben Rothwell v. Matt Mitrione

This is another heavyweight brawler matchup, so let’s look over some numbers.

Mitrione is coming off a 3 KO win streak, and 8 of his 9 wins have been by KO. He has 3 career losses, one each KO, Sub, Decision. He lands 3.86 strikes/minute while absorbing 2.64. He has 51% striking accuracy and 66% striking defense. He has never landed a takedown in his career, and has 58% takedown defense. He hasn’t been taken down in his last 3 fights. All of his 9-3 record was in the UFC.

Ben Rothwell is on a 2 TKO win streak, with his last outing being a R1 TKO over Alistair Overeem. He has 20 KO/TKO and 11 Subs in his 34 total wins. He lands 2.76 strikes/minute and absorbs 3.36, with 44% striking accuracy and 49.51% striking defense. He only has 36% takedown accuracy.

This fight will end in a finish, so bet the fight doesn’t go the distance / under 1.5 rounds.

My Pick: Matt Mitrione (KO)

Tim Boetsch v. Dan Henderson

It’s just sad that the fight is the main event after Cormier-Bader was dropped from the event.

Dan Henderson is all but cut at this point, being 44 years old and having lost 5 of his last 6 fights. The lone bright spot was a TKO win over Shogun Rua. Hendo is 7-7 in the UFC with a 50% win rate, but only a 28.57% finish rate (UFC).

Tim Boetsch is only slightly better than Hendo on paper, being 34 years old and having lost 4 of his last 6 fights. He eeked out a split decision over CB Dollaway and had a TKO win over Brad Tavares. He was put to sleep in his last fight by Thales Letes’ arm triangle choke.

I’m not even sure I’ll watch this fight. They say Hendo can end fights with 1 punch, but he hasn’t been able to do that for a while.

My Pick: Tim Boetsch to win