Locked in a bunch of plays
Jones -140 over Stallings
Jones was a late replacement at LHW, didn't look to shabby. I think fighting at his natural MW class should give him a pretty big power advantage.
Risking $140 to win $100
Abdurahimov -240 over Johnson
Going with the Russian.
Risking $240 to win $100
Yakovlev -110 over Maynard
More of a fade on Maynard. Wouldn't be surprised if Maynard won with wrestling, but I can't back his jaw at this point in his career. I'm hoping Yakovlev has enough TDD to stuff Maynard.
Risking $110 to win $100
Carmouche -120 over Murphy
Carmouche should be able to get top control and grind out a win, plus she's a lot more experienced in top level fights.
Risking $120 to win $100
Poirer -190 over Ferreira
Poirer moving up in weight after fighting featherweight for a long time. The weight cut shouldn't be as bad, so he should have more energy and should have the speed advantage as well.
Risking $190 to win $100
Iaquinta EV over Masvidal
Pretty even fight, Masvidal with a lot more experience. Going with the younger guy.
Risking $100 to win $100
Leans:
Guida -240 over Peralta
Interested to see how the change from Greg Jackson to Team Alpha Male helps out Guida. He has great wrestling, so if his striking is improved, it should be an easy win for him.
Pena -240 over Dudieva
Long layoff after a brutal knee injury for Pena. Even with that and the "Octogon rust", I think Pena has more then enough to handle Dudieva.
Chiesa -350 over Clarke
If Clarke can stop the takedowns, he has a shot, as Chiesa is a poor striker. Don't think it's gonna happen. Odds a bit to high. I'd look for a prop bet of Chiesa ITD or by sub.
Mendes -450 over Lamas
Mendes' only losses are to Aldo. Mendes with slightly better wrestling and more power, Lamas a bit faster and more technical. Mendes' striking has improved every fight and I think it's the difference here, either because he catches Lamas and KO's him or uses it to set up his takedowns. Odds to high though.
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