UFC 189/ Mcgregor Play Info

Conor McGregor and the UFC have faced criticism for Conor’s fast rise to the top of the Featherweight division, with many people questioning how the Irishman could be granted a title shot after only a couple of wins against top ranked opponents. McGregor’s high profile as a fighter will always mean his career will face more scrutiny than others and this could be the reason why everyone has overlooked the fact that Chad Mendes has also had a very soft rise to the top…

When Chad Mendes first fought Jose Aldo for the Featherweight title back in 2012, he was given the title shot after just two wins in the UFC against Rani Yahya and Michihiro Omigawa. Mendes lost his first title shot against Aldo via knockout and then went onto face equally soft opposition in his journey back to the top of the division for his 2014 rematch for the title. In that run to the top of the Featherweight division, Chad Mendes fought Cody McKenzie, Yaotzin Meza, Darren Elkins, Clay Guida and Nik Lentz… This is hardly a lineup of top Featherweights… In fact… None of those guys were in the top 10 rankings when Mendes beat them. In contrast, Conor McGregor has fought Marcus Brimage, Max Holloway, Diego Brandao, Dustin Poirier and Denis Siver. In my opinion that lineup of opponents is a lot more difficult than what Chad Mendes had to beat on his path to a title shot.

I have been late to jump on board the Conor McGregor hype train, but watching footage of him in my research for this fight was an absolute pleasure. His style of fighting is the reason why they put the word Artist in Martial Artist. His movement, technique and composure in the Octagon is mesmerizing and it is incredible to watch.

Having watched a ton of footage on McGregor this week, I do believe that he has the potential to become a dominant Champion and I can absolutely assure you that he is not “all hype”. Obviously we are yet to see McGregor face an elite wrestler, but the days of strong wrestlers being able to make a career out of grinding out wins against opponents with inferior takedown defence are over. You only have to look at how quickly Joanna Jedrzejczyk was able to develop elite takedown defence to see that high level strikers can now develop strong defensive wrestling very quickly.

Conor McGregor has completely walked through all 5 of his opponents in the UFC and I believe he will do the same to Chad Mendes. When guys get in there with Conor they look completely lost. They just don’t know what to do with themselves. It’s almost like Conor’s unorthodox style of striking hypnotizes them into a state of confusion. Even well rounded warriors like Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway were completely outclassed and turned into a tentative shell of their normal-self.

How does McGregor do it? Well… I believe it’s partly due to the fact that he has a long reach and he maximises that by fighting very long. He also fights out of the Southpaw stance, which is difficult enough to deal with for most orthodox stanced fighters, before you even throw into the mix that Conor is fast, accurate and powerful. I also believe that Conor’s exceptional striking defence and confidence destroys the will of his opponents. It’s just so hard to land anything clean on him and that has to be demoralising. Conor’s unique ability to stand in the pocket and avoid his opponent’s strikes with world class head movement and the ability to keep his shoulders high and his chin tucked is seriously impressive. There’s just no one in the UFC right now who is on his level when it comes to striking defence.

I believe that Chad Mendes can only win this fight by taking McGregor down and controlling him on the ground. McGregor’s 8 inch reach advantage and outstanding striking defence will make it very difficult for Mendes to get inside Conor’s range and land anything significant. It’s also worth noting that Mendes has never shown us anything to suggest he poses a threat of submissions on the ground, he doesn’t even try to improve his position or pass guard when he gains a dominant position.

I have no doubt that Mendes will be able to take McGregor down, but it’s going to be very hard to keep him down and control him for 25 minutes. Conor will undoubtedly show up to this fight in great shape after a very long training camp, whilst Mendes is taking this fight on just two weeks notice. Mendes has a very muscular frame for a Featherweight and the longer this fight goes on, the slower and more telegraphed his takedowns will become. Mendes might have some success with his offensive wrestling early in the fight, but there’s going to come a point where he’s going to have to stand and exchange with McGregor and when this happens I see him getting knocked out or badly hurt.

Las Vegas judges are notoriously biased towards aggressive strikers and they seem to overlook a lot of grappling control in favour of exciting striking exchanges. I believe it will be very difficult for Mendes to win a decision in Las Vegas because McGregor’s crowd pleasing style of fighting will appeal more to the judges then Mendes’ grinding grappling control.

Mendes’ biggest problem is that he doesn’t mount any offense when he gets his opponent’s down. His ground and pound is non existent and he hardly ever tries to advance his position. He might be able to hold Conor down for prolonged periods of time, but I don’t see him being able to hurt Conor or threaten him with submissions. Every round starts standing and this gives McGregor at least 5 opportunities to finish this fight.

Chad Mendes and the Team Alpha Male guys keep referring to wrestling as a clear path to victory for Mendes. Whilst this much might seem obvious, rarely do we see MMA fighters “put all their eggs in one basket”. From the Embedded videos and Countdown shows it appears that Mendes and the Alpha Male guys are banking on Mendes being able to take McGregor down and they seem to have accepted the fact that Mendes is clearly second best when it comes to striking.

Having a rigid gameplan like this is dangerous in MMA, because making adjustments in the middle of a fight doesn’t always come naturally to people. How will Mendes react if he can’t get Conor down in the 1st round? Will he wilt and fade like all of Conor’s previous opponents? Or will he fight till the end like he did against Jose Aldo? Honestly, there’s no way of knowing the answer to that question, but I don’t like how Mendes and his team seem to be banking on his ability to get this fight to the ground.

Conor’s takedown defence is the only question left unanswered and I find it hard to believe that take down defence would be a big hole in his game after 3 years of training for UFC level opposition. Surely he has identified this as a potential weakness in his skillset and worked on it. Maybe my assumptions are a little speculative, but in my opinion Chad Mendes has to hold McGregor down for 25 minutes in order to win this fight and I just don’t see it happening.

I have been very slow to jump on board the Conor McGregor hype train, but how much longer can we continue to deny his ability, just because we haven’t seen him fight a high level wrestler? From the fight footage I have seen this week, I believe McGregor is the real deal and I believe he beats Mendes just like he has beaten everyone else that he has faced in the UFC…

You do understand that this division is relatively new in the UFC. UFC owned the WEC for a little while and then merged them together.  Aldo was champ in WEC and became UFC champ. Mendes was doing well in WEC and had a nice streak going so he didn't leapfrog or have a quick rise for that UFC title shot like you mentioned.  It's a different situation so you can't compare both 'rises' to their first title shot. 

WEC was considered the premier league for guys in that weight class, Fabre Aldo Cruz mendes cub etc etc were all there and it was UFC owned then ufc merged  the WEC and all it's fighters to create those weight classes 

I'm not saying Conor fought easy guys, all I'm saying is that mendes wasn't handed a title shot right away due to WEC success and the merger thus creating the division. 

Monet Shot, so who are u picking to get the win?

"Monet Shot."  A new phrase is born.

I actually like Connor and he's entertaining but I'm on mendes because I think this is a coin flip so I'll take mendes at + odds. Conor is -185 now which IMO (obviously I could be wrong) is too much to bet on.  I think this fight could go either way but I have to bet mendes because of his wrestling and overall experience but mainly for value. 

I do not know who will win, but I am leaning Mendes, he is much more athlete to me than Conor.

Great write up, thank you.