UFC 180, Bellator 131, WSOF 15

14-8 +10.2 posted

Holy crap there's a lot going on this coming weekend and I can't wait to enjoy some fights. I'll post leans in here again throughout the week. I appreciate anyone's input whether we agree or not. Some of you guys have definitely saved me from my leans by bringing up info I had overlooked, so a big thank you for that.

First leans:

Ricardo Lamas +130 over Bermudez
I love Bermudez. I've never seen a boring Bermudez fight and his fight with Grice is one my top ten favorites (if you haven't seen it, do yourself a favor), but this is a bad match-up. The UFC must hate him. Lamas is a much more technical striker, has been in there with the best fighter on the planet, and is a good enough wrestler and scrambler to give "the menace" fits.

Kelvin Gastelum -190 over Jake Ellenberger
I see Kelvin as an eventual title contender. If you watched the tuf season he was on, he was the last pick on the show. He ended up beating Uriah Hall in the finale at 185 at 22 years old. Now he fights at welter and he's a big kid. He's a great grappler and his striking improvements have really impressed me lately as well. I see Jake as a guy who has fell in love with his own power lately and he has a habit of waiting for that one shot. I think Kelvin outclasses him everywhere.

As lines come up, I'll post other leans as the week moves on. GL guys.

Like Bermundez but I agree very tough draw for him. Cant stand Gastelum. Loved when he beat Hall but has trouble making weight and something else I can't quite put my finger on yet. Don't like Ellenberger much either, lol.

Bellator Leans

Schilling +125 over Manhoef
This is a funny line. These are two of the hardest hitting kickboxers in the world fighting with 4 ounce gloves. This should be brutal. Manhoef has has a suspect chin lately and Schilling has looked great and I think he catches him early.

Mike Richman -350 over Phan
Mike Chandler -260 over Ill Will
Probably a parlay. If you heard the interview with Phan on the mma hour, you got to be afraid for this kid. Chandler is better than he showed against Will the first go and is more motivated than ever.

Jacare vs Romero got added to UFC 184 today. Hell yes! Also Brandon Thatch vs Stephen Wonderboy Thompson got announced. Hell yes twice! These are great fights to start 2015.

Playing Bonner, Schilling but small bets, not gonna post them but here, lol.

More Leans - WSOF:

Jorge Patino -110 over Reynolds
Patino has been in this game forever and has fought everyone - Jacare, Pele, Miletich, Galvao, Spratt, & Escudero to name a few. He's no youngster but he's still crafty enough to beat most guys because his BJJ is great and he's a tough SOB. He's also the coach that put the kid back on the stool in Wyoming when he passed out in between rounds. Reynolds doesn't have the skills to beat this guy.

Gaethje/Guillard U2.5 -150
2 hard hitting cats who really love to throw leather, one of which who has a suspect chin and susceptibility to a RNC? Once Gaethje inside distance comes out my lean is that too.

Branch/Okami U4.5 +125
This is both their chance to show the ufc what's up and I think one of them takes control early (Okami) and does everything he can to finish in devastating GnP.

Lastly, since the props came out on the UFC, one more lean:

Hunt/Werdum O1.5 -130
Don't get it mixed up - Hunt is a tough ol' boy and he doesn't lose easily. Ask JDS, ask Bigfoot, ask Rothwell. I think Werdum eventually puts him away, but I think the first 1-1.5 rounds are a feeling out process - Werdum wants to avoid the big shot and find range, Hunt wants to pace himself and avoid the clinch and drag.

That'll be it. I'll be playing a combination of my leans mentioned so far. GL and enjoy the fights.

Guillard missed weight by 4 lbs. For a guy who has been disrespectful to his new org and their fighters, this fight and the repercussions of it could get ugly.

14-8 +10.2 posted

Posting a parlay this evening for 2 faves I like on AXSTV for a small bet to get the weekend started.

Pineda+Reiswerg 1 to win .7

Between 0-2 unit bets. Here's the rest (from my favorites to least):

Guillard/Gaethje U 2.5 -150 2 to win 1.3
Richman/Chandler parlay 2 to win 1.5
Gastelum -200 over Ellenburger 2 to win 1
Schilling +120 over Manhoef 1.5 to to win 1.8
Lamas +160 over Bermudez 1.5 to win 2.4
Hunt/Werdum O1.5 -130 1.3 to win 1
Patino over Reynolds +100 1 to win 1

Good luck to you all.

Hell of a first fight. Not the most athletic dudes ever but they throw to finish.

These SOBs are tough! Great first two fights!

Good luck O

Thanks guys. I can't change the channel fast enough. Great fights so far.

Disappointed Gaethje never even attempted a takedown. Hopefully he gets a shot at the UFC soon.

14-8 +10.2 to start

-1 for the Pineda/Reiswerg parlay
-2 Guillard/Gaethje U2.5
-2 Richman/Chandler parlay (props Ill Will)
+1 Gastelum
+1.8 Schilling
+2.4 Lamas
-1.3 O2.5 Hunt/Werdum (props Werdum - 2:27? Bummer)
+1 Patino

4-4 -0.1 on the weekend.

18-12 +10.1 total posted