Posted:
#1
Hi, I'm not a sharp mma bettor but i thought we could start a discussion on this fight.
cya guys... Only consideration for me is Melendez dog play
Melendez - Pettis
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Posted:
#3
The winner of the fight is a no play for me.
I'm still considering a combination of prop bets, though. Basically, I think Pettis has a decent shot at winning early. El Nino is a master of grinding out decisions, though, and Showtime is as bad at earning points on the cards as he is good at finding highlight-reel finishes.
The most appealing combo in my mind is:
Pettis in round 1 (+625) & Melendez by UD (+375). Weighted equally, the combo bet is +187.
You could think of this is a bet on Gil to dominate with a hedge against Pettis pulling off something miraculous. Showtime has pulled that off three fights in a row, albeit over a span of years. I think his chances of doing it again are probably more like 25-30%, especially since he should realize that grinding out a decision is El Nino's best game plan.
A more conservative approach based on this same logic would be to add a smaller bet on Pettis in round 2 or to switch the bet on Gil to a win by any decision. Either of these would push the bet near even money, which doesn't sound so appealing.
I am well aware that combinations of MMA props are usually a bad idea, since the juice is higher than on straight MMA bets. I'm hoping that this matchup is unusual enough to compensate for the extra juice.
Posted:
#8
Pettis wins this one. Gil's best path to victory is by playing Frankie to Cub. The problem is that Gil is not as quick as Frankie, he doesn't mix up his strikes with takedowns as well, he doesn't have the same top control pressure and Anthony's striking is much too diverse for Gil to last standing in front of him.
Pettis lost to Clay Guida a few years ago so he went and did the smartest thing possible - he recruited one of the best mma wrestlers we've ever seen in Ben Askren to come to his camp.
Also, Gil loses fights late. He dropped round 3 to Diego in his last one out, and out of the 6 rounds 4&5 (3 total fights) he fought against Josh Thomson, he lost 5 of them.
I lean Pettis to finish. Good luck
Pettis lost to Clay Guida a few years ago so he went and did the smartest thing possible - he recruited one of the best mma wrestlers we've ever seen in Ben Askren to come to his camp.
Also, Gil loses fights late. He dropped round 3 to Diego in his last one out, and out of the 6 rounds 4&5 (3 total fights) he fought against Josh Thomson, he lost 5 of them.
I lean Pettis to finish. Good luck
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