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    All Forums | Mixed Martial Arts

    McGregor vs Mendes line

    Smitty92
    dr2i4ve
    RLeith35
    ParlayJoe17
    Qncyk1
    ...
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    Views: 1599
    Posts: 14
     
    Smitty92
    Smitty92
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2015 - 3:39 PM ET #1

    My local has it at +115 for Mendes and -145 for McGregor

    My thought is preparing for Mendes in just 2 weeks time is a hell of a task. I want to take Mendes as a value play if he stays a dog, but what do you guys think will happen to the line as it gets closer to the fight? 

    I feel like the public will be hammering McGregor and I should wait to get a better line but thoughts are welcome
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    My local has it at +115 for Mendes and -145 for McGregor

    My thought is preparing for Mendes in just 2 weeks time is a hell of a task. I want to take Mendes as a value play if he stays a dog, but what do you guys think will happen to the line as it gets closer to the fight? 

    I feel like the public will be hammering McGregor and I should wait to get a better line but thoughts are welcome
     
    dr2i4ve
    dr2i4ve
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2015 - 3:42 PM ET #2

    I agree with you in the fact that the public will pound McGregor at that value. All the hype and marketing has been for Aldo v McGregor. The uneducated mma fan probably thinks Mendes is a free fight for McGregor.

    McGregor is going to use his reach, size, and strength to his advantage. Chad will have a hard time closing the distance. I can see Conor catching Chad when he attempts to engage, he's an excellent counter puncher. 

    I'm taking McGregor within the distance when it becomes available and ML for McGregor. May hedge a Mendes decision win as well.
    Reply
    I agree with you in the fact that the public will pound McGregor at that value. All the hype and marketing has been for Aldo v McGregor. The uneducated mma fan probably thinks Mendes is a free fight for McGregor.

    McGregor is going to use his reach, size, and strength to his advantage. Chad will have a hard time closing the distance. I can see Conor catching Chad when he attempts to engage, he's an excellent counter puncher. 

    I'm taking McGregor within the distance when it becomes available and ML for McGregor. May hedge a Mendes decision win as well.
     
    dr2i4ve
    dr2i4ve
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2015 - 3:43 PM ET #3

    Not to mention the short notice fight. I know TAM fighters claim they always stay fight ready but title fight 5 round ready?
    Reply
    Not to mention the short notice fight. I know TAM fighters claim they always stay fight ready but title fight 5 round ready?
     
    RLeith35
    RLeith35
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    Posted: Jul. 7, 2015 - 1:43 AM ET #4

    Mcgregor says he will beat down mini menendez and Aldo as well
    He says he is not in the UFC to take part, he is here to take over.
    I like his confidence and the way he backs up what he says will
    happen before every fight. I put down a large bet on him when
    my book had him at +110 vs Mendez and that line was the alternet
    line if he did not fight Aldo, but that line changed real quick to
    Mcgregor being the favorite right after they said Aldo was off the
    fight. IN ANY CASE, i put in another bet on Mcgregor and again
    his odds have gone up even higher than my second bet on him.
    So i think i have got the best of it by betting early .
    Reply
    Mcgregor says he will beat down mini menendez and Aldo as well
    He says he is not in the UFC to take part, he is here to take over.
    I like his confidence and the way he backs up what he says will
    happen before every fight. I put down a large bet on him when
    my book had him at +110 vs Mendez and that line was the alternet
    line if he did not fight Aldo, but that line changed real quick to
    Mcgregor being the favorite right after they said Aldo was off the
    fight. IN ANY CASE, i put in another bet on Mcgregor and again
    his odds have gone up even higher than my second bet on him.
    So i think i have got the best of it by betting early .
     
    ParlayJoe17
    ParlayJoe17
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    Posted: Jul. 7, 2015 - 7:11 AM ET #5

    I got in on McGregor at around -135.  Does anybody have any thoughts as to how high this line might go?  I'm seeing  -160 right now.  I really think McGregor is going to win but would prob look at hedging if it got to Chad +170 or something.  I also, as an American, want to see Chad win this fight just don't think his odds are that good.  I just don't see him having the energy to wrestle and control Conor for 5 rounds and feel like he'll get eaten up on the feet with the reach disadvantage.  I know he hasn't beaten anyone one Chad's level, but Conor has utterly dominated all of his fights (Holloway included).
    Reply
    I got in on McGregor at around -135.  Does anybody have any thoughts as to how high this line might go?  I'm seeing  -160 right now.  I really think McGregor is going to win but would prob look at hedging if it got to Chad +170 or something.  I also, as an American, want to see Chad win this fight just don't think his odds are that good.  I just don't see him having the energy to wrestle and control Conor for 5 rounds and feel like he'll get eaten up on the feet with the reach disadvantage.  I know he hasn't beaten anyone one Chad's level, but Conor has utterly dominated all of his fights (Holloway included).
     
    Qncyk1
    Qncyk1
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    Posted: Jul. 7, 2015 - 11:01 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by dr2i4ve:

    I agree with you in the fact that the public will pound McGregor at that value. All the hype and marketing has been for Aldo v McGregor. The uneducated mma fan probably thinks Mendes is a free fight for McGregor.

    McGregor is going to use his reach, size, and strength to his advantage. Chad will have a hard time closing the distance. I can see Conor catching Chad when he attempts to engage, he's an excellent counter puncher. 

    I'm taking McGregor within the distance when it becomes available and ML for McGregor. May hedge a Mendes decision win as well.

    connor mcgregor is an excellent counter puncher?

    conner mcgregor fights nothing like a machida, jmm, floyd, toney, sweet pea, chavez or even a canelo alvarez(boxers that have no problems fighting off fighting off their back foot) for that matter and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that he has the ability to do so)

    he is your typical come-forward stalking pressure fighter and has yet to be tested going backwards

    https://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/UFC-189-Statistical-Matchup-Analysis-Mendes-vs-McGregor-88637

    defensive punch stats are identical for mendes whose competition is undoubtedly the same level if not much higher than mcgregor

    i dont think that we will hear anyone saying that chad mendes is an excellent counter puncher.
     




    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by dr2i4ve:

    I agree with you in the fact that the public will pound McGregor at that value. All the hype and marketing has been for Aldo v McGregor. The uneducated mma fan probably thinks Mendes is a free fight for McGregor.

    McGregor is going to use his reach, size, and strength to his advantage. Chad will have a hard time closing the distance. I can see Conor catching Chad when he attempts to engage, he's an excellent counter puncher. 

    I'm taking McGregor within the distance when it becomes available and ML for McGregor. May hedge a Mendes decision win as well.

    connor mcgregor is an excellent counter puncher?

    conner mcgregor fights nothing like a machida, jmm, floyd, toney, sweet pea, chavez or even a canelo alvarez(boxers that have no problems fighting off fighting off their back foot) for that matter and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that he has the ability to do so)

    he is your typical come-forward stalking pressure fighter and has yet to be tested going backwards

    https://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/UFC-189-Statistical-Matchup-Analysis-Mendes-vs-McGregor-88637

    defensive punch stats are identical for mendes whose competition is undoubtedly the same level if not much higher than mcgregor

    i dont think that we will hear anyone saying that chad mendes is an excellent counter puncher.
     




     
    wiiooiiw
    wiiooiiw
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    Posted: Jul. 7, 2015 - 11:22 PM ET #7

    You know that Chad Mendes... he is an excellent counter puncher.
    Reply
    You know that Chad Mendes... he is an excellent counter puncher.
     
    MoneyShot
    MoneyShot
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    Posts: 18451
    Posted: Jul. 7, 2015 - 11:28 PM ET #8

    Wish I would of waited a bit longer, I bet mendes at +130 pretty big but it seems to still be going up and up. Might be +155 by Friday, I think some late money might come in on mendes by around fight time to lower Connor odds a small amount but how high will Connors line be? -180, -190?!  I thought it was going to stop around -160
    Reply
    Wish I would of waited a bit longer, I bet mendes at +130 pretty big but it seems to still be going up and up. Might be +155 by Friday, I think some late money might come in on mendes by around fight time to lower Connor odds a small amount but how high will Connors line be? -180, -190?!  I thought it was going to stop around -160
     
    Ferrari29
    Ferrari29
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    Posted: Jul. 8, 2015 - 12:21 AM ET #9

    If I'm betting Mendes wait maybe a half hour before the fight. Mendes might get to plus 160 or 170 after weigh ins.
    Reply
    If I'm betting Mendes wait maybe a half hour before the fight. Mendes might get to plus 160 or 170 after weigh ins.
     
    LVOptiontrader
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    Posts: 289
    Posted: Jul. 8, 2015 - 1:53 PM ET #10

    Conor -175 in LV right now.
    Reply
    Conor -175 in LV right now.
     
    MoneyShot
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    Posted: Jul. 8, 2015 - 11:12 PM ET #11

    Conor is -185 now! 
    Reply
    Conor is -185 now! 
     
    podsox
    podsox
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2015 - 10:50 PM ET #12

    this is insane. mendes is so well rounded.  he should be the favorite imo.  conor is still so unproven.  hollaway is his best win and both guys got injured early in the fight.  im pounding mendes with these crazy odds. conor -195 on my book
    Reply
    this is insane. mendes is so well rounded.  he should be the favorite imo.  conor is still so unproven.  hollaway is his best win and both guys got injured early in the fight.  im pounding mendes with these crazy odds. conor -195 on my book
     
    billynbrandi
    billynbrandi
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2015 - 6:36 PM ET #13

    I think conor is going to win this fight.. he is such a beast when he is in the octagon n he fight wit no fear n heart... mendes is a good fighter n if he can take it to the ground he mite have a chance in winning this fight
    Reply
    I think conor is going to win this fight.. he is such a beast when he is in the octagon n he fight wit no fear n heart... mendes is a good fighter n if he can take it to the ground he mite have a chance in winning this fight
     
     
    whitebelt
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    Posts: 472
    Posted: Jul. 11, 2015 - 6:55 PM ET #14

    Mendes will take Conor down and punch a hole in his face. There is no evidence to support the theory that Conor will keep the fight standing, or defend himself on the ground. Not saying he cannot do it- I will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong- but it takes something special to deal with a high caliber wrestler like Mendes. This line is way off, but Mendes is down from +160 to +135 as the smart money starts rolling in.
    Reply
    Mendes will take Conor down and punch a hole in his face. There is no evidence to support the theory that Conor will keep the fight standing, or defend himself on the ground. Not saying he cannot do it- I will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong- but it takes something special to deal with a high caliber wrestler like Mendes. This line is way off, but Mendes is down from +160 to +135 as the smart money starts rolling in.
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