Initially I felt that Daniel Cormier should be able to use his
wrestling to grind out another easy win, but after spending a
significant amount of time researching this fight, I have now come to
the conclusion that the odds are totally inaccurate. I personally
believe that Alexander Gustafsson should be closer to a 1.80 | -120
favourite, because he has almost every single advantage I look for when
betting on a fighter apart from pure wrestling.
Many people will disagree with my bet on this fight, so I’m going to
break this match up down into far greater detail than I normally would.
I’m hoping that this will help you understand the reasons why I feel
Alexander Gustafsson is such a great bet and I also hope it will
encourage you to place a bet on him yourself, so that we can all
hopefully make some money on saturday night.
Here are the reasons why I recommend betting on Alexander Gustafsson to beat Daniel Cormier at UFC 192…
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Initially I felt that Daniel Cormier should be able to use his
wrestling to grind out another easy win, but after spending a
significant amount of time researching this fight, I have now come to
the conclusion that the odds are totally inaccurate. I personally
believe that Alexander Gustafsson should be closer to a 1.80 | -120
favourite, because he has almost every single advantage I look for when
betting on a fighter apart from pure wrestling.
Many people will disagree with my bet on this fight, so I’m going to
break this match up down into far greater detail than I normally would.
I’m hoping that this will help you understand the reasons why I feel
Alexander Gustafsson is such a great bet and I also hope it will
encourage you to place a bet on him yourself, so that we can all
hopefully make some money on saturday night.
Here are the reasons why I recommend betting on Alexander Gustafsson to beat Daniel Cormier at UFC 192…
Daniel Cormier is just 5 ft 11 inches tall compared to Alexander
Gustafsson who towers over him at 6 ft 5. As you can see in the picture
above, Cormier and Gustafsson look like they are a couple of weight
classes apart and that’s largely because their wingspans and height are
very different. Daniel Cormier has the height and wingspan of a
Welterweight / Middleweight, whereas Alexander Gustafsson has the
perfect wingspan and height for the Light Heavyweight / Heavyweight
division.
Weight classes exist in combat sports, because the bigger you are, the
bigger the advantage you have. There are almost no exceptions to this
rule, but some people will argue that Alexander Gustafsson’s height will
make it easier for Daniel Cormier to get underneath him and take him
down. This is true to some extent, but Gustafsson’s long limbs will also
make it easier for him to scramble back to his feet. His long limbs
will also help him to create a wide base against the cage, which will
make it hard for DC to take him down when he puts Gustafsson’s back
against the cage. This is an important factor to consider in this fight,
because Cormier is not the kind of wrestler who completes takedowns by
shooting in on people. Most of DC’s takedowns come from the clinch
position against the cage and Gustafsson’s long frame and wide base will
make it hard for DC to take him down from this position. Gustafsson’s
long limbs will also open up more submission opportunities on the
ground.
Gustafsson’s length also means he has a huge 7 inch reach advantage over
Daniel Cormier. This means that Gustafsson will be able to land strikes
from positions where Cormier cannot counter him. In order for Cormier
to land on Gustafsson, he’s going to have to apply a lot of pressure,
close the distance and put himself in positions where he’s going to have
to take damage to enter striking range. Gustafsson does a very good job
of landing powerful strikes whilst moving backwards or circling away
from danger and this isn’t something that Daniel Cormier has had to deal
with against any other opponent. Gustafsson is a master of distance and
he’s very good at keeping his opponent’s on the end of his strikes. I
believe Gustafsson’s reach gives him a huge advantage in this fight.
Daniel Cormier is just 5 ft 11 inches tall compared to Alexander
Gustafsson who towers over him at 6 ft 5. As you can see in the picture
above, Cormier and Gustafsson look like they are a couple of weight
classes apart and that’s largely because their wingspans and height are
very different. Daniel Cormier has the height and wingspan of a
Welterweight / Middleweight, whereas Alexander Gustafsson has the
perfect wingspan and height for the Light Heavyweight / Heavyweight
division.
Weight classes exist in combat sports, because the bigger you are, the
bigger the advantage you have. There are almost no exceptions to this
rule, but some people will argue that Alexander Gustafsson’s height will
make it easier for Daniel Cormier to get underneath him and take him
down. This is true to some extent, but Gustafsson’s long limbs will also
make it easier for him to scramble back to his feet. His long limbs
will also help him to create a wide base against the cage, which will
make it hard for DC to take him down when he puts Gustafsson’s back
against the cage. This is an important factor to consider in this fight,
because Cormier is not the kind of wrestler who completes takedowns by
shooting in on people. Most of DC’s takedowns come from the clinch
position against the cage and Gustafsson’s long frame and wide base will
make it hard for DC to take him down from this position. Gustafsson’s
long limbs will also open up more submission opportunities on the
ground.
Gustafsson’s length also means he has a huge 7 inch reach advantage over
Daniel Cormier. This means that Gustafsson will be able to land strikes
from positions where Cormier cannot counter him. In order for Cormier
to land on Gustafsson, he’s going to have to apply a lot of pressure,
close the distance and put himself in positions where he’s going to have
to take damage to enter striking range. Gustafsson does a very good job
of landing powerful strikes whilst moving backwards or circling away
from danger and this isn’t something that Daniel Cormier has had to deal
with against any other opponent. Gustafsson is a master of distance and
he’s very good at keeping his opponent’s on the end of his strikes. I
believe Gustafsson’s reach gives him a huge advantage in this fight.
Gustafsson’s height and long limbs will also make it easier for him to
land head kicks and knees. This is a significant advantage in this fight
because Cormier likes to spend a lot of time dirty Boxing in the
clinch. Gustafsson’s dirty Boxing is very good and he has the added
advantage of being about to pull Cormier’s head down in the clinch,
whilst landing powerful knees to the head.
Gustafsson’s height and long limbs will also make it easier for him to
land head kicks and knees. This is a significant advantage in this fight
because Cormier likes to spend a lot of time dirty Boxing in the
clinch. Gustafsson’s dirty Boxing is very good and he has the added
advantage of being about to pull Cormier’s head down in the clinch,
whilst landing powerful knees to the head.
Athletes hit their prime between the ages of 27 and 32. This might go
some way towards explaining the reason why 8 out of the 11 current UFC
Champions are all aged between 27 and 32. The only exceptions to this
rule are Daniel Cormier, Fabricio Werdum and Robbie Lawler who is just
outside of his prime at 33 years old.
Fighter’s start to rapidly decline after the age of 32 because their
body starts to produce less Testosterone. Less Testosterone means that
their competitive drive decreases, their aggression levels reduce and
they also don’t have the motivation to train as hard as they used to.
Daniel Cormier is now 36 years old, whilst Alexander Gustafsson is
currently in his prime at just 28 years old. This means that there is an
8 year age gap between them. The younger fighter wins around 67% of the
time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight.
Age is an important factor to consider in MMA because years of
gruelling competition takes it toll on a fighter’s body. Daniel Cormier
has competed in 17 pro MMA fights, as well as hundreds of wrestling
matches throughout his career. No amount of conditioning, PEDs or
Nutrition is going to be able to change the fact that Cormier’s body is
currently on a heavy decline. You cannot do anything to cheat mother
nature and Cormier’s performances will get significantly worse with
every passing year.
Cormier has looked great throughout his career, but he doesn’t have
that much experience competing against fighter’s who are in their prime.
Out of the 11 fighters he has competed against under the Zuffa banner,
only 3 of them were under the age of 33. One of those fighter’s was Dion
Staring, the other was Jon Jones and the other was most recently
Anthony Johnson. I feel that this is an important factor to consider,
because it’s a lot easier to demonstrate grappling control against older
guys like Dan Henderson, Roy Nelson and Frank Mir than it will be to
outgrapple a strong 28 year old fighter who is currently competing in
his prime.
. MMA is a young man’s sport…
Athletes hit their prime between the ages of 27 and 32. This might go
some way towards explaining the reason why 8 out of the 11 current UFC
Champions are all aged between 27 and 32. The only exceptions to this
rule are Daniel Cormier, Fabricio Werdum and Robbie Lawler who is just
outside of his prime at 33 years old.
Fighter’s start to rapidly decline after the age of 32 because their
body starts to produce less Testosterone. Less Testosterone means that
their competitive drive decreases, their aggression levels reduce and
they also don’t have the motivation to train as hard as they used to.
Daniel Cormier is now 36 years old, whilst Alexander Gustafsson is
currently in his prime at just 28 years old. This means that there is an
8 year age gap between them. The younger fighter wins around 67% of the
time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight.
Age is an important factor to consider in MMA because years of
gruelling competition takes it toll on a fighter’s body. Daniel Cormier
has competed in 17 pro MMA fights, as well as hundreds of wrestling
matches throughout his career. No amount of conditioning, PEDs or
Nutrition is going to be able to change the fact that Cormier’s body is
currently on a heavy decline. You cannot do anything to cheat mother
nature and Cormier’s performances will get significantly worse with
every passing year.
Cormier has looked great throughout his career, but he doesn’t have
that much experience competing against fighter’s who are in their prime.
Out of the 11 fighters he has competed against under the Zuffa banner,
only 3 of them were under the age of 33. One of those fighter’s was Dion
Staring, the other was Jon Jones and the other was most recently
Anthony Johnson. I feel that this is an important factor to consider,
because it’s a lot easier to demonstrate grappling control against older
guys like Dan Henderson, Roy Nelson and Frank Mir than it will be to
outgrapple a strong 28 year old fighter who is currently competing in
his prime.
Many people see Daniel Cormier’s high level wrestling as his key to
victory, but Alexander Gustafsson has really good MMA wrestling and
excellent takedown defence. This is backed up by the fact that he has
the 3rd highest takedown defence in UFC Light Heavyweight history. This
means that Gustafsson has defended 86% of all takedowns across 11 fights
in the UFC and his length, footwork and distance control makes him
extremely difficult to take down and even harder to keep down.
Daniel Cormier has high level wrestling, but most of his takedowns
come from the clinch. You’ll very rarely see him shooting in on his
opponent’s from distance. This is going to cause him big problems in
this fight, because Gustafsson is excellent at disengaging from the
clinch and circling out of danger. It’s really difficult to tie
Gustafsson up and DC is going to have to use up an incredible amount of
energy if he wants to try and keep this fight in the clinch.
Gustafsson’s long limbs also make it easy for him to create a wide
base when his back is against the cage. This makes it difficult for his
opponent’s to complete double leg takedowns, because his wide base makes
it difficult for them to lock their hands together. He can also use his
long arms to post on the canvas of the cage and scramble back to his
feet if his opponent tries to drag him to the ground with a less
effective single leg takedown.
Some wrestlers have a strong, smothering style of grappling where you
can’t get them off you if they gain top position. Cormier doesn’t have
this style of wrestling and his top control doesn’t appear to be that
strong. Cormier moves around a lot when he’s in top position and he
offers up plenty of opportunities for scrambles. Gustafsson does a great
job of looking for openings and scrambling back to his feet and I don’t
believe Cormier will be able to control him on the ground for very
long.
Daniel Cormier is not a submission grappler and I do not believe that
he poses any submission threat to Gustafsson. If anything, Gustafsson
could use his long limbs to catch DC in something. Either way. I feel a
submission win for either guy is extremely unlikely.
Grappling
Many people see Daniel Cormier’s high level wrestling as his key to
victory, but Alexander Gustafsson has really good MMA wrestling and
excellent takedown defence. This is backed up by the fact that he has
the 3rd highest takedown defence in UFC Light Heavyweight history. This
means that Gustafsson has defended 86% of all takedowns across 11 fights
in the UFC and his length, footwork and distance control makes him
extremely difficult to take down and even harder to keep down.
Daniel Cormier has high level wrestling, but most of his takedowns
come from the clinch. You’ll very rarely see him shooting in on his
opponent’s from distance. This is going to cause him big problems in
this fight, because Gustafsson is excellent at disengaging from the
clinch and circling out of danger. It’s really difficult to tie
Gustafsson up and DC is going to have to use up an incredible amount of
energy if he wants to try and keep this fight in the clinch.
Gustafsson’s long limbs also make it easy for him to create a wide
base when his back is against the cage. This makes it difficult for his
opponent’s to complete double leg takedowns, because his wide base makes
it difficult for them to lock their hands together. He can also use his
long arms to post on the canvas of the cage and scramble back to his
feet if his opponent tries to drag him to the ground with a less
effective single leg takedown.
Some wrestlers have a strong, smothering style of grappling where you
can’t get them off you if they gain top position. Cormier doesn’t have
this style of wrestling and his top control doesn’t appear to be that
strong. Cormier moves around a lot when he’s in top position and he
offers up plenty of opportunities for scrambles. Gustafsson does a great
job of looking for openings and scrambling back to his feet and I don’t
believe Cormier will be able to control him on the ground for very
long.
Daniel Cormier is not a submission grappler and I do not believe that
he poses any submission threat to Gustafsson. If anything, Gustafsson
could use his long limbs to catch DC in something. Either way. I feel a
submission win for either guy is extremely unlikely.
If you think Gustafsson should be the favorite you must have made a substantial bet on him then at +2xx, right? What odds did you lock in and how much did you bet?
If you think Gustafsson should be the favorite you must have made a substantial bet on him then at +2xx, right? What odds did you lock in and how much did you bet?
Daniel Cormier has good Boxing but he’s going to find it difficult to
get inside Gustafsson’s 7 inch reach. I also believe that Cormier is
going to find it difficult to deal with the diverse range of strikes
that Gustafsson likes to throw. I don’t believe that Cormier is going to
be able to land many significant strikes in open exchanges, but I do
believe that Gustafsson will be able to pick him off with head kicks,
long jabs and powerful hooks.
Cormier’s biggest strength when it comes to striking is his dirty
Boxing. His ability to land powerful uppercuts in the clinch is
impressive, but uppercuts in the clinch become significantly less
effective when you’re fighting a tall guy, because the impact reduces
the higher the point of impact. In order for Cormier’s uppercuts to
work, he’s going to have to pull Gustafsson’s head down and control his
head with one hand. Gustafsson is so good at disengaging from the
clinch, that I don’t believe Cormier is going to be able to control him
with just one hand. For that reason, I don’t believe that Cormier’s
dirty Boxing will be that effective in this fight.
At just 5ft 11 inches tall, DC is a sitting duck to Gustafsson’s
dangerous head kicks and nasty knees in the clinch. Gustafsson has
finished guys in the past with knees in the clinch and I believe there’s
a very good chance that he can badly hurt DC in the same way. Many
people anticipate that this fight will go the distance, but I believe
there’s a good chance Gustafsson wins this fight by knockout or TKO
after landing some nasty knees to the head in the clinch position.
I give Gustafsson a significant advantage when it comes to striking
because he fights very long and he can use his range to land on Cormier
from positions where Cormier cannot counter. His ability to land nasty
knees in the clinch also make him very dangerous in the position in
which Cormier will most likely want this fight to take place. DC will be
moving forward for the entire duration of this fight and I believe this
will play right into the hands of Gustafsson, who will be able to use
his high level footwork to pick DC apart from the outside.
Striking
Daniel Cormier has good Boxing but he’s going to find it difficult to
get inside Gustafsson’s 7 inch reach. I also believe that Cormier is
going to find it difficult to deal with the diverse range of strikes
that Gustafsson likes to throw. I don’t believe that Cormier is going to
be able to land many significant strikes in open exchanges, but I do
believe that Gustafsson will be able to pick him off with head kicks,
long jabs and powerful hooks.
Cormier’s biggest strength when it comes to striking is his dirty
Boxing. His ability to land powerful uppercuts in the clinch is
impressive, but uppercuts in the clinch become significantly less
effective when you’re fighting a tall guy, because the impact reduces
the higher the point of impact. In order for Cormier’s uppercuts to
work, he’s going to have to pull Gustafsson’s head down and control his
head with one hand. Gustafsson is so good at disengaging from the
clinch, that I don’t believe Cormier is going to be able to control him
with just one hand. For that reason, I don’t believe that Cormier’s
dirty Boxing will be that effective in this fight.
At just 5ft 11 inches tall, DC is a sitting duck to Gustafsson’s
dangerous head kicks and nasty knees in the clinch. Gustafsson has
finished guys in the past with knees in the clinch and I believe there’s
a very good chance that he can badly hurt DC in the same way. Many
people anticipate that this fight will go the distance, but I believe
there’s a good chance Gustafsson wins this fight by knockout or TKO
after landing some nasty knees to the head in the clinch position.
I give Gustafsson a significant advantage when it comes to striking
because he fights very long and he can use his range to land on Cormier
from positions where Cormier cannot counter. His ability to land nasty
knees in the clinch also make him very dangerous in the position in
which Cormier will most likely want this fight to take place. DC will be
moving forward for the entire duration of this fight and I believe this
will play right into the hands of Gustafsson, who will be able to use
his high level footwork to pick DC apart from the outside.
UFC 192 is the first event where fighters will not be allowed to use an
IV to rehydrate after the weigh ins. Experts have said that it can take
upto 72 hours to rehydrate naturally, which means we could see some very
dehydrated fighters on Saturday night.
Cormier and Gustafsson are obviously two of the fighter’s who will
suffer the most from these new rules because they’re competing in a 5
round title fight and they both cut a lot of weight. I believe that the
new IV rules will favour Alexander Gustafsson because he’s younger,
fresher and his body is in better condition. He’s also a lot leaner than
Daniel Cormier and he doesn’t appear to carry that much excess body
weight.
Weight cutting gets harder as you get older and at 36 years old
Daniel Cormier has never found weight cutting easy. I believe the
inability to rehydrate using an IV could have a very adverse effect on
his performance.
You also have to take into consideration the fact that Daniel Cormier
slowed down considerably in the 3rd round of his fight against Jon
Jones. It’s also worth noting that Jones chose to compete with Cormier
in the clinch, where Cormier feels the most comfortable. Gustafsson will
not fight Cormier in the clinch. Cormier will have to come out of his
comfort zone in order to win this fight and that will mean he’ll have to
chase Gustafsson around the Octagon. This will involve him fighting in a
way that he’s not used to, which often means he’ll be using a lot more
energy.
Conclusion
I believe that Daniel Cormier will apply a ton of pressure to Alexander
Gustafsson from the very first second of this fight. He’s going to want
to start strong and impose his will. Cormier is going to try very hard
to grab a hold of Gustafsson and put his back against the cage. I expect
him to have some success with clinch work, cage control and takedowns
in the first couple of rounds, but I also expect Gustafsson to circle
out of danger, disengage from the clinch quickly and pop right back up
to his feet if he does get taken down.
Conditioning
UFC 192 is the first event where fighters will not be allowed to use an
IV to rehydrate after the weigh ins. Experts have said that it can take
upto 72 hours to rehydrate naturally, which means we could see some very
dehydrated fighters on Saturday night.
Cormier and Gustafsson are obviously two of the fighter’s who will
suffer the most from these new rules because they’re competing in a 5
round title fight and they both cut a lot of weight. I believe that the
new IV rules will favour Alexander Gustafsson because he’s younger,
fresher and his body is in better condition. He’s also a lot leaner than
Daniel Cormier and he doesn’t appear to carry that much excess body
weight.
Weight cutting gets harder as you get older and at 36 years old
Daniel Cormier has never found weight cutting easy. I believe the
inability to rehydrate using an IV could have a very adverse effect on
his performance.
You also have to take into consideration the fact that Daniel Cormier
slowed down considerably in the 3rd round of his fight against Jon
Jones. It’s also worth noting that Jones chose to compete with Cormier
in the clinch, where Cormier feels the most comfortable. Gustafsson will
not fight Cormier in the clinch. Cormier will have to come out of his
comfort zone in order to win this fight and that will mean he’ll have to
chase Gustafsson around the Octagon. This will involve him fighting in a
way that he’s not used to, which often means he’ll be using a lot more
energy.
Conclusion
I believe that Daniel Cormier will apply a ton of pressure to Alexander
Gustafsson from the very first second of this fight. He’s going to want
to start strong and impose his will. Cormier is going to try very hard
to grab a hold of Gustafsson and put his back against the cage. I expect
him to have some success with clinch work, cage control and takedowns
in the first couple of rounds, but I also expect Gustafsson to circle
out of danger, disengage from the clinch quickly and pop right back up
to his feet if he does get taken down.
he's not really posting his analysis or thoughts, he's just copying/pasting a "free bet" from some stupid tout (or he actually is the stupid tout)
https://mmabettingtips.com/free-betting-tips-picks-predictions-ufc-192-cormier-gustafsson/ ............................................................................................................ U are the STUPID ONE, get ouy of my post & stay out, Got that!!!
Quote Originally Posted by p6y1:
he's not really posting his analysis or thoughts, he's just copying/pasting a "free bet" from some stupid tout (or he actually is the stupid tout)
https://mmabettingtips.com/free-betting-tips-picks-predictions-ufc-192-cormier-gustafsson/ ............................................................................................................ U are the STUPID ONE, get ouy of my post & stay out, Got that!!!
I believe that Cormier will start to fade when he realises that he
cannot control Gustafsson for any lengthy period of time. Cormier’s
fight against Jon Jones was fought at a very slow pace, because Jones
chose to fight Cormier in the clinch. The clinch is a very tiring
position to compete in, but it’s where Cormier feels the most
comfortable. During that fight, DC was given opportunities to catch his
breath in the clinch, but he won’t have that same luxury on Saturday
night because he’s going to have to work very hard to stop Gus from
disengaging. I believe Cormier is going to get very tired and very
frustrated when Gustafsson continues to stuff his takedowns and quickly
disengage from the clinch position.
Based on what I have seen in my research, I believe that this fight
will be very close. Gustafsson is not a rock solid bet by any means, but
at odds of around 4.00 | +300, I believe that he is one of the best
bets of the year. I want to make it clear that I’m not placing a flier
on a good value underdog, because I genuinely believe Gustafsson has the
best chance of winning this fight. He has the advantage when it comes
to striking, he has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight on his
terms and his age and size give him a significant edge over the older,
smaller and slower Daniel Cormier.
By ALLSOPP
I believe that Cormier will start to fade when he realises that he
cannot control Gustafsson for any lengthy period of time. Cormier’s
fight against Jon Jones was fought at a very slow pace, because Jones
chose to fight Cormier in the clinch. The clinch is a very tiring
position to compete in, but it’s where Cormier feels the most
comfortable. During that fight, DC was given opportunities to catch his
breath in the clinch, but he won’t have that same luxury on Saturday
night because he’s going to have to work very hard to stop Gus from
disengaging. I believe Cormier is going to get very tired and very
frustrated when Gustafsson continues to stuff his takedowns and quickly
disengage from the clinch position.
Based on what I have seen in my research, I believe that this fight
will be very close. Gustafsson is not a rock solid bet by any means, but
at odds of around 4.00 | +300, I believe that he is one of the best
bets of the year. I want to make it clear that I’m not placing a flier
on a good value underdog, because I genuinely believe Gustafsson has the
best chance of winning this fight. He has the advantage when it comes
to striking, he has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight on his
terms and his age and size give him a significant edge over the older,
smaller and slower Daniel Cormier.
Hedged back i unit on Gust +235 , had two parlays with Cormier, so if Cormier does win ,will win i unit, if he losses will cover my 2 parlays and make some change.
Hedged back i unit on Gust +235 , had two parlays with Cormier, so if Cormier does win ,will win i unit, if he losses will cover my 2 parlays and make some change.
Hot Forum Topics
