Almeida (19-0) is one of the top prospects in the UFC bantamweight
division. The 23-year-old Brazilian is undefeated in his MMA career and
is so far 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Tim Gorman and Yves Jabouin.
Almeida is an offensive juggernaut. He has ridiculous striking, both
technical and powerful, and he has the ability to be a title contender
if he keeps improving his overall game. He has 18 finishes in 19 carer
victories including 14 by knockout, which includes his Performance of
the Night win over Jabouin in his last outing. Almeida also has some
nasty submission ability on the ground, although primarily he has stuck
to his striking. His wrestling is pretty good, not great, but it’s
getting better and for the most part he is able to defend takedowns and
keep his fights on the feet. And at 23, this will only improve. He’s
shown a good chin so far, although he’s a bit too hittable, and he’s
also shown good cardio. I really that Almeida is going to be in the top
10 soon, and with a win over Pickett — especially if he can finish him —
that would shoot his stock way up.
Pickett (24-10) is a long-time veteran of the lighter-weight
divisions. The 36-year-old Brit is 4-5 overall in the UFC including a
3-3 record as a bantamweight with wins over Mike Easton, Damacio Page
and Yves Jabouin at 135lbs. He also has a win over Demetrious Johnson
from the WEC days. Pickett is an extremely exciting fighter who is
always in “Fight of the Night”-type brawls. He loves to stand in the
pocket and trade, and he is called “One Punch” because he has pretty
decent power for the division. However, while he does have some nice
offensive boxing, defensively he gets hit way too much and in recent
fights his chin has seen signs of a steep decline as he’s been rocked
and dropped badly in a few fights. Because his chin isn’t holding up as
well anymore, he has reverted to using his wrestling, which is actually
quite decent. For a British fighter, Pickett has pretty good wrestling
and is able to take most of his opponents down. But at this point of his
career that’s all he has going for him. His conditioning has looked
poor recently, he’s looked slow, and he’s been hittable, all bad signs
for a 36 year old going up against a young stud like Almeida, and not
surprisingly the line is steep in his opponent’s favor.
Like everyone else, I like Almeida in this fight and expect him to
get the finish. Pickett has really slowed down in recent years and the
speed difference in this fight is going to be very obvious as soon as
they touch gloves. The only way Pickett wins is if he can wrestle
Almeida for 15 minutes and based on what we’ve seen from Almeida’s
takedown defence, I don’t think that’s possible. I like Almeida here but
at 10-1 it’s hard to find value in the moneyline, so prop bets are
probably the way to go here. Almeida wins inside distance is only -190. I
just don’t see Pickett surviving 15 minutes in the cage with this guy,
so there looks to be good value in that prop, although obviously the
limits will be lower. Most are figuring the Almeida T/KO prop at -110
will cash, but I’m also looking at Almeida by submission at +419. I
think there’s a chance he rocks Pickett on the feet then chokes him out,
so at those odds it’s worth a shot, although of course the safer route
with props would be to go with Almeida ITD at -190. Anyways, I fully
expect Almeida to win this fight and I’m looking forward to seeing how
he performs against a fighter I’ve long respected in Pickett.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Almeida (19-0) is one of the top prospects in the UFC bantamweight
division. The 23-year-old Brazilian is undefeated in his MMA career and
is so far 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Tim Gorman and Yves Jabouin.
Almeida is an offensive juggernaut. He has ridiculous striking, both
technical and powerful, and he has the ability to be a title contender
if he keeps improving his overall game. He has 18 finishes in 19 carer
victories including 14 by knockout, which includes his Performance of
the Night win over Jabouin in his last outing. Almeida also has some
nasty submission ability on the ground, although primarily he has stuck
to his striking. His wrestling is pretty good, not great, but it’s
getting better and for the most part he is able to defend takedowns and
keep his fights on the feet. And at 23, this will only improve. He’s
shown a good chin so far, although he’s a bit too hittable, and he’s
also shown good cardio. I really that Almeida is going to be in the top
10 soon, and with a win over Pickett — especially if he can finish him —
that would shoot his stock way up.
Pickett (24-10) is a long-time veteran of the lighter-weight
divisions. The 36-year-old Brit is 4-5 overall in the UFC including a
3-3 record as a bantamweight with wins over Mike Easton, Damacio Page
and Yves Jabouin at 135lbs. He also has a win over Demetrious Johnson
from the WEC days. Pickett is an extremely exciting fighter who is
always in “Fight of the Night”-type brawls. He loves to stand in the
pocket and trade, and he is called “One Punch” because he has pretty
decent power for the division. However, while he does have some nice
offensive boxing, defensively he gets hit way too much and in recent
fights his chin has seen signs of a steep decline as he’s been rocked
and dropped badly in a few fights. Because his chin isn’t holding up as
well anymore, he has reverted to using his wrestling, which is actually
quite decent. For a British fighter, Pickett has pretty good wrestling
and is able to take most of his opponents down. But at this point of his
career that’s all he has going for him. His conditioning has looked
poor recently, he’s looked slow, and he’s been hittable, all bad signs
for a 36 year old going up against a young stud like Almeida, and not
surprisingly the line is steep in his opponent’s favor.
Like everyone else, I like Almeida in this fight and expect him to
get the finish. Pickett has really slowed down in recent years and the
speed difference in this fight is going to be very obvious as soon as
they touch gloves. The only way Pickett wins is if he can wrestle
Almeida for 15 minutes and based on what we’ve seen from Almeida’s
takedown defence, I don’t think that’s possible. I like Almeida here but
at 10-1 it’s hard to find value in the moneyline, so prop bets are
probably the way to go here. Almeida wins inside distance is only -190. I
just don’t see Pickett surviving 15 minutes in the cage with this guy,
so there looks to be good value in that prop, although obviously the
limits will be lower. Most are figuring the Almeida T/KO prop at -110
will cash, but I’m also looking at Almeida by submission at +419. I
think there’s a chance he rocks Pickett on the feet then chokes him out,
so at those odds it’s worth a shot, although of course the safer route
with props would be to go with Almeida ITD at -190. Anyways, I fully
expect Almeida to win this fight and I’m looking forward to seeing how
he performs against a fighter I’ve long respected in Pickett.
I was wondering how those odds were that steep. I watched Almeida's fight versus that nobody and Almeida won by decision and although he definitely won his face was busted up badly and he never really had his opponent in serious trouble. I guess his other fight he TKO'd Jabouin. I agree with your analysis of Pickett, and was not aware that he'd been rocked recently. I was thinking of better the over 1.5 at -160 but I guess I'll think about it some more.
I was wondering how those odds were that steep. I watched Almeida's fight versus that nobody and Almeida won by decision and although he definitely won his face was busted up badly and he never really had his opponent in serious trouble. I guess his other fight he TKO'd Jabouin. I agree with your analysis of Pickett, and was not aware that he'd been rocked recently. I was thinking of better the over 1.5 at -160 but I guess I'll think about it some more.
Hot Forum Topics
