What's on your (stock) shopping list ?

We are getting some pretty violent moves in the market, both to the upside and downside.  A market that felt like earlier in the day could be down 2k points on the Dow (someone on CNBC said the same), has now turned positive.  The "buy the dip" buyers have been out in full force in recent memory, and that hasn't changed today.   Just how much cash remains on the sidelines to support this....  

There is no sign of panic in the market, yet, with indiscriminate selling..

@Rush51

 Very, very good opportunities in nearly all markets lately. 

@Rush51

 Took a very large long position on oil clearing 70.  Then flipped short at 95 and again at 105 and 110.  Looked like I was going to get stopped out. 
But it turned around in a hurry.  I didn’t expect the drop to be as big and as swift as it was. 
But I am very, very glad it was.  
Took profits all the way down and now am just holding a small position.  
It was a very nice last few days.  
These are opportunities that only come along every now and then.  
Usually expect the elevator up and the escalator down.
 
But you are correct that the markets had a very up and down last few days.  

I do not know if you saw some of the overnight things last night.  Was way down.  I picked up some stuff that was on sale and took profits around midday.  I wish I had stayed in for the afternoon session.  

But anyone who had key numbers to buy dips probably hit them in the last couple of days.  

@Raiders22

 That is incredible.   That's way too volatile for me to get involved in such trades..  I was indeed watching the pre markets on Sunday night, seeing the Dow down more than 1k points, and oil at $120.  I'm glad the oil trade worked out for you, but wow, that is some gut wrenching volatility ..

I'm a bit skeptical how soon this war will really be over, despite Trump's comments today.  That single statement crushed oil prices, and the stock market bounced hard... I think Trump "blinked" a little bit today on how sideways the oil market got...  It was just last week he said he wanted a voice in who the next Supreme Leader would be,  then Iran puts forward Khomenei's son !   That ain't gonna work out.  So, is Trump going to now abandon this ( secondary) goal of the war ?   Lots of inconsistency, .. we shall see what happens from here. 

@Rush51

 Yessir. Volatility and leverage is not for everyone for sure.  
   You are correct that it is good dip buying chances for folks.  
   If the Iran thing is not ‘resolved’ somewhat soon it could be ugly for investors.  Traders and speculators may like the volatility but the investors do not.  

@Raiders22

 I tend to wait for some pretty 'wide-spreads' before I get interest in buying.   Typically , a correction starts to get me interested ; these buys from people that get triggered just 3-5% from all time highs seems a bit silly.  But to each their own.   That being said, I may go more than a year without significant activity, which is fine by me.  I did recently add a small amount of CRM to an existing position about 3-4 weeks ago at around $191/share, and started a new position in NOW about 2 weeks ago at close to $100.  I am making an obvious bet that these companies will be able to utilize AI, and power their companies with new growth..  The AI disruption threat and potential defect of customers is on the other side that has been crushing Software stocks..  I like listening to CEOs speak before I invest in their companies ... I think this is good practice for any companies, but it is particularly important for tech companies, where you need a chief that knows where he wants to take the company, and is aware of potential threats.

Adapt or Die...  It is a mantra I stick with, and those that stand still will be deemed irrelevant.  Again, this is most relevant to tech companies where the pace of innovation is fast..  

@Rush51

 Yessir.  I understand that.  

Certainly, the investment portfolio should be something where you do not jump in and out of things.

But if you have a trading portfolio that is the time to take advantage of the volatile situations.

Very short term trades should have a very good reasons behind them.

But adding stocks or funds to your investment portfolio can be done in a lot of ways.

Like looking for an undervalued stock or seeing it bounce off of a 200 day moving average.  Or just waiting for the market to drop 15-20%.

I have not been in SalesForce in a long time.  I know folks that trade it daily and short term swing it.

I may look at it again since you recommend it.

I will also look into NOW.  I just have enough AI things at this point that I really like.

But I will look into it also.

@Rush51

 I did pick up some APP calls at the very end of the day.  Just because of the big drop and what I think was a slight overreaction.  
But we shall see. 

@Raiders22

 I always thought APP to be a bit of a meme stock, but here I see it now at a P/E below 30..  Everything is really getting cut down to size in this new norm of a war-economy.  

Today was one of those days I noted was brutal out of the gate, and only got worse as the day wore on to the close ...  This tells me the "buy the dip" buyers are soon being exhausted , and the sellers are taking over.  There is not much standing in front of this market to being down 10% from its high from here  (i.e. a correction).  I firmly believe we are staring at this within the next few weeks.  If today is any clue, these buyers are done, and a new cadre of buyers must step in in the weeks ahead at much lower levels... 

Get the shopping lists prepared now... 

The markets have been surprisingly 'orderly' in light of the Iran War here in recent weeks, and by orderly, I mean no panic, indiscriminate selling to date.  Will that continue  ?  Who knows, but the Bond market showed some signs of cracking on Friday,  w The 10 year Treasury spiking to nearly 4.5%  I found it interesting Trump stepped in to quell any concerns on late Sunday/ early Monday,  saying talks were in progress w the Iranians.   Very "interesting " timing to say the least, as he looks to simmer a stock/bond/oil  market as the war continues on.  

The Russell just entered correction territory on Friday.   Will the larger indexes follow suit in short order? 

Rush, what do you make of this market these last few days? Everything seems to move with each headline that is printed/posted/tweeted. Crazy times! Are you buying a few bargains?

@soccergal

 I bought some today at the Index level.  We're pretty close to a correction w the large indexes,  and already there at the smaller ones.

At the stock level, I have my eye on HOOD if it gets to $50...  

It's days like today where VYM and VTV shows why it pays to be really diversified.   Yes, they are down today on a Very Big Down day on the market, but much less so than the overall market.  No Mag 7 in either ETF, and they hold your household names that are your steady Eddies of performance...

I will say VYM does hold AVGO, it's biggest holding (and close to MAG 7 type company), but that's about it for the big tech exposure 

Earlier in the week, I bought small positions in VYM, VDE and  VTV.  I did sell a portion of NVDA on Friday also.  I have been listening to Ozan Tarman ,on the radio ,give his take on the current equity market.  His ‘take’ on the market is not very good in the foreseeable future. 

@soccergal

 It's hard to be optimistic right now,  particularly in the " fog of war."  But even before the first missiles were fired, the market was undergoing a bit of a transformation under the surface , w big tech selling off, and boring dividend stocks out performing.  Boring ETFs like SCHD had rocketed 10% higher in just about a month in the early part of the year.. 

The S&P had  healthy double digit returns the last 3 calendar years, largely due to big tech outperformance.   But Now, we are seeing a bit of a reckoning,  and the fog of war isn't helping.   Frankly,  I've been surprised the S&P is only just now entering correction territory.  It feels worse,  and could very much get a lot worse from here.

But I go into this thinking that any new money put to work ( like on Friday) won't be needed for at least 3 years... That gives wide latitude for a healthy return, before that money is ever needed..

I can definitely get behind that mind set! I would be perfectly happy with ROI on my money and would be more than willing to set it and forget it for three years.

What the heck has happened to Nike ?  A once dominant, well-run business just can't get out of its own way.  Here in after-hours trading it is down another -8.5% after reporting earnings, trading below $50.

I talked briefly about NKE here in this thread (Post #37), and glad I never pulled the trigger.  It is just not a well-run company any more (even with a newly installed CEO), and hasn't navigated the big time competitive threats from ON Holdings and Hoka whatsoever.  If any of you go to the gym, go look at the shoes people wear.  It's ON, it's HOKA, it's Skechers,  it's Nike....the occasional Converse and Vans, too..    I'd say people wear Nikes maybe 50%, if you're lucky.  Back 20 years ago, it was probably closer to 85%, maybe even higher...  Everybody seemed to wear Nikes..  

On a broader point, I don't own any consumer apparel or restaurant stocks at all, and haven't for probably about 15 years.  (It's probably saved me bundles of many.  I once owned Bed, Bath, and Beyond, and made some good money with it and sold before it went south and out of business)..  There's something to say about the fickle nature of consumer tastes/trends.  And trying to predict new trends is pretty damn impossible.  Even corporate CEOs of these businesses have a tough time. The Consumer Stocks I do own tend to be a bit more "sticky,"  having a bit more of a customer "commitment," even though they have the power to switch whenever they please.  These stocks include UBER, LYFT, JPM, HOOD,  and SCHW.   And that's about it ..  Everything else in my stock holdings are "business-to-business" stocks..    And just to be clear, I'm talking about individual stock picks, not including any mutual fund holdings.. 

I forgot to add NFLX to my stock holdings.. 

@Rush51

 Several outlets had articles after hours that came out about NKE.  

A lot of it seems to be expected huge drop in China sales next quarter about 20%, on top of the already down 10% or so. 
Then some margin pressure with tariffs and discount things and inventory clearance.  
The positives seem to be that they are still #1 in sports apparel and their sales were up in North America.  
But when Hill came out and said the turnaround is taking longer than expected — investors did not like that.  

I had NKE twice late last year.  I got stopped out both times.  It could never get going. 

It seems the forecast is around 75 or so.  But a key number it needs to hold seems to be 65.  So I just don’t see much upside with it. 
But with it being solidly below the 200 MA I just can’t like it right now. 

@Raiders22

 It's interesting ; you are looking at NKE from a trading perspective based on your comments, and me an investment perspective.. And no one want to touch this thing.  And for good reason.  It lost a staggering -15.5% today, levels not reached in almost 12 years;  And it is now down a staggering -67% in a 5-year period !    It's unfathomable that such an iconic brand could be so mismanaged, and unwilling to realize the competitive threats.  That has been its biggest problem over the years.  Who would want to step in and buy this thing for an investment ?  What's the catalyst ?  There is none.   It's only a gamble

But they are not alone.  It got me thinking about other household names that have also been mismanaged over the years.  DIS is down a staggering -50% over a 5-year period, following the excitement of their foray intro streaming services during COVID.  It is "flat" over a 10-year period !  Think about that.   This iconic brand has done nothing for you if you've held the stock for 10 years.  TGT is the last one that comes to mind that has really been mismanaged.  It is down -40% over a 5-year period.  I parallel this stock to NKE, because both did virtually nothing/or made serious management blunders,  in light of the competitive threats.  For TGT, Walmart has absolutely destroyed them on every front.  (Cost, Convenience, online).  

@Rush51

 Yep.  No turnaround seems to be in sight.  
Not been a DIS fan for a while now.  
I did like TGT for a while but never got any. 

I did unload COST and now have just WMT since mid-year last year. 

But I am not so sure how much of NKE is just losing market share to Hoka, Adidas, and Chinese brands — or how much is tariff, economy, and clearance related.  

But it is amazing to see a once dominant brand fall so quickly. 
You have to be innovative and adapt to new trends so quickly.   

It is hard to trust that they will turn it around soon.  

BUT it is hard to not look for a bottom at some point.  Because they are still the market leader.

But absolutely it would be a trading opportunity for me and not a longterm investment.  

NKE sinking further 

Got some JUL 50 Calls -- for absolutely no good reason.

But I have a scapegoat that brought it to my attention -- @Rush51

But surely with summer running and exercise coming and all of that bad news -- a bottom could be near.

@Raiders22

 Lol.. Yes, by all means.  It's on me if it tanks further. 

ONON had a really miserable day, too, down -5%.  It looks like there is an added layer to deal with right now for footwear; gas prices shooting through the roof is leaving less discretionary spending for a large cohort of people.  Shopping for another pair of shoes would seem to be an easy target on the chopping block.