Options expiration landing

Tomorrow is expiry of course and it looks like we are going to land on some key numbers. I have been looking the past few days trying to find a stock that I could exploit and missed SEVERAL opportunities.

Here is where I think a few names land tomorrow-

GOOG at 550
VLO at 70
CNQ at 75
FSLR at 100 (maybe 105?)

If one thought GOOG would run to 560 by tomorrow, the 560 calls might be a 4-5 bagger in just a day..I dont think so..in fact I am tempted to try the 550 puts since the stock is over 550 now.

No guarantees I am right but GOOG almost always lands on a round number..will be interesting to watch. If I make a play I will note it here..

Lippsman playing the options field..

Oh my this could be trouble!

When do they expire? And nice job NOT going for the OTM options..smart move.

I am crying in my cereal now on these GOOG options..had loaded 80 contracts of the 560s at 80 cents, go to run an errand and dont place, well the same options are getting close to a double now.

Damn my conservative nature..

Lippman,

I should have tossed 5-10k on those 560s just from gut feel. Once they passed the middle mark (say 554) the next stop was 560 and I am sure it gets there today or mid tomorrow.

They would expire on the 21st.  So I got a day to play with them.  Hopefully something wonderful will happen.  Like Dell files thier paperwork like they are supposed to

I'm very conservative.....Well I guess you would know that by now from postingings in another certain forum.

Also, I'm a rank amateur in the options game.  I just do simple calls and puts.  And of course just maily in tech stocks. I'm going to spread my wings a bit more very soon.  Doing some Butterflies and Iron/Condors. I very much like the idea of getting a stock that is going sideways.  I see quite a few of those right now. I just love making money on a stock that's just stuck in the mud

I know, I know......you don't make much money on these.  But I always like a lower profit and much higher chance of being in the money.

Lippsman,

You have the OK to place those kind of trades with your broker? And I am going to be a gambling man and knowing you I am guessing you have a broker who does the trades rather than say a Scottrade acct right?

I would be careful those MMs are probably going to land DELL square on that strike price and make those calls worthless..

One other intriuging thought..me thinks you are playing/trading with a full boat..you dont get authorization to trade spreads and uncovered options with a noobie balance.



And who is to blame you trying to make money from the beta and volitilaty, that is what the MMs do..so making a ton or a little, you are playing their game putting the odds with you on the trade.

I use Think or Swim.  I use thier software and they are my broker. I have a nice little account set up.  No pucks this year mean all of that investing goes toward the market/options now.  The same thing I did during the lockout.  It's a nice size boat, but it's not an unmanned boat.  I do have a very seasoned people to help me navigate it.  I'm no fool, stocks I can do just fine with.  Options I have a couple of people that do it for a living. I will be picking thier brain as much as possible.

And yours if you allow it.

Mama didn't raise no fool, know your limitations. But I will learn. 

You know I would do whatever I could to help..at any time and you know we can talk about this outside the general population too.

I say the odds are 75/25 that DELL camps out tomorrow at 27.50 but the demand isnt like GOOG where the MMs intentionally land a stock at the strike price..

Looks like AAPL will park it at 140 too tomorrow..probably a flat boring day tomorrow.

If I had the access and deep pockets I would probably short the 560 puts on GOOG, I like the odds that they move it there before expiry tomorrow..

Actually...if they park it at 560 tomorrow I would be VERY VERY VERY tempted to buy some Oct 550 puts..quite seriously.  

Interesting.........I have some pockets.......How much do you really like this play? As I log onto my program.

Lippsman,

I think they are artificially pumping it up..if the stock hits 560 I think the odds within a month that it goes below 550 is worth the risk.

Damn it..I am such a puss...that 560 went down below a buck and I pulled my order..damn...such a puss.

If they close the stock tomorrow at 560, those 550 puts for Oct will probably be closer to 12 a contract..its very pricey but I think they will turn it on its ear and at some point during the cycle the stock should go to 540.

The risk is that earnings is next cycle and GOOG always reports near expiry, so the premiums will keep up for the whole cycle.

What might be good is lets see on monday if they push it past 560, the assumption is that they close it at 560 tomorrow.

90 cents on those options are a 50% move almost again. I love the action on expiry week, even though I am a conservative pusssssss  

Lippsman,

I crossed two sentiments..

I was saying SELL SHORT the Sept 560s for one day, big risk but potential because of where  these MMs usually land on a strike price.

The 550s are for Oct..

Sorry for the confusion..

Selling the 560s would get you 7 pts per contract so as long as the stock is above 553 you would make out selling short those contracts and the pain comes in below 553 to cover...

Another gem to add to our list for next month..

NTRI..

Some firm downgraded them because comps will be tougher and some diet pill coming on the market..

At a 15 PE and low end of price range, I like this one quite a bit too...

Wow..

They took the market down pretty big at the end.

Game plan tomorrow looks like the 550 calls/puts on GOOG..with that bearish close I tend to think they land it there now..

Never know, we have see 10 pt moves on expiry all the time.

Well based on that I have my 1000 star stock pick on shorting GOOGLE..

Stupid Cramerica..

I got to agree with you there.  In fact I posted documented facts that fading Cramer short term is money

FN,

This might seem dumb but if you want the basics, try to find Options for Dummies..that would probably be an easy read.

You could also do a google search for Options education and find stuff online that would do the trick.