Looking ahead to 2008

 I am just establishing this thread for any and all threads that are looking ahead to the coming year rather than the coming weeks.

 My current estimation is the following, although I would love to think it incorrect:

 1.I foresee a constant stream of bad news originating from the housing and financial markets, that will ultimately erode confidence in the market, and will cause a significant correction in the S & P and Dow.

 2. I think retailers will experience a poor Christmas.

 3. I feel commodity prices will continue to go higher (due to expected flooding of the money markets by the Fed). Hard assets are in a long term bull market.

 4.The value of the dollar will continually erode, exacerbating the above.There will be a steady determination to diversify assets out of the dollar by countries that have financed the US in the past.

 5. Housing prices will decline in the overinflated markets by as much as 25 per cent.Floridians however will be happy to hand over properties to a flood of Canadians and Europeans!!

 6. janitors at GM will realize they have made a horrible mistake and will break with the UAW and accept getting $72 an hour to push brooms.
 
 

$100/barrel oil in 2008

  I think the janitors got through to  UAW leadership faster than I thought they would!!

 Strike over...happily. (Presuming members vote like they should, at least in my opinion).

 was not off topic, I just had to throw it in there...

  I should add, I think maybe all executive bonuses awarded in the past 15 years should be called in as well...unless losing market share is now deemed something to be rewarded by empty suits...

Never mind, found them at Proshares.  Thinking about shorting this market at the end of the week.

 

 

The bears  here are not alone....I hope I am wrong on some fronts..

From Reuters

A majority of hedge fund managers say a U.S. recession is "very likely" in 2008, but fewer than one in five said an economic slowdown would be bad for their funds, a survey of several-hundred hedge fund managers released on Tuesday found.

Rothstein Kass, a provider of auditing and tax services for funds, said it sponsored the survey that polled 239 hedge fund principals with a median $492 million in assets under management.

More than 61 percent of those polled said they believed a recession was "very likely" in 2008, the survey found.

Still, only 17 percent of those surveyed viewed an economic downturn as bad news for their funds, with some 66 percent suggesting a recession would bring investment opportunities.

"Respondents seem undaunted by prospects for a recession in 2008," said Howard Altman, co-managing principal at Rothstein Kass. "While over 43 percent will likely change their fund's particular investments, fewer than 15 percent anticipated changes to the fund's underlying investment strategy."

While a small opinion sample in a $1.8 trillion hedge fund industry that includes nearly 10,000 funds, the survey suggests that a significant portion of active traders think U.S. economic growth is poised to reverse.

Good thread.

From my humble perspective it's all about CREDIT, and true HOUSING COSTS.  Gas prices should stay cool, (still don't know how they pulled that off, almost election time I guess). 

My prediction for 2008:  INFLATION, especially in the commodities.

 What will the markets do Mr. Carnegie?

 "Fluctuate."


 CCourt, you related to him )I think it was Mr.Carnegie, it may have been Mellon...not sure...

  Anyway, anyone heard of the maxim of Peter Lynch: the P/E number should be considered the number of years one should expect it will take to get back one's original investment in that stock?

 By the way, for specific stocks, for varied reasons, I am looking ahead to seeing what MO (Altria) spins off. Also GE, for too many reasons to count, but geographical  and nuclear reasons.And also, platinum and palladium, as a precious metals and green playall in one.(used in emissions controls).

Let me also humbly throw-in Pharmaceutical companies, and immunizations, or immunization scares