Weekend Data

Love the Churchill cards on Friday & Saturday. I have a couple that I really like on both days but want to mention quick notes on the Derby field.

#1 Hit Show has been the chalk in all 5 of his races winning 3 of them.

#2 Verifying lost the Bluegrass in a stretch battle with #5 Tapit Trice.

#3 Two Phil's wasn't close to Forte in the BC Juvenile & ran 3rd to Angel of Empire. Love trainer Larry Rivelli but......

#4 Confidence Game won the Rebel Stakes in his last @ 18-1. Good to see James Graham get national exposure.

#5 Tapit Trice is one of three for Pletcher. Showed a hug heart in his last. Has won 4 of 5 & Saez is red hot. Stone cold closer!

#6 Kingsbarn has done nothing wrong winning all 3 of his races with 3 different jocks. Jock change to Jose Ortiz makes the 4th change for Pletcher.

#7 Reincarnate 7 out 7 ITM (in the money). Johnny V stays onboard. Distance???

#8 Mage last 2 races were very nice after getting away slowly. In the Fountain of Youth, it looked to me like he took a bad step in the stretch & in the Florida Derby, you have to watch the move he made from dead last to run 2nd to Forte. Javier gets back up on him. Only 1 win in 3 tries. Exotics for me.

#9 Skinner has won 1 of 6 & ships in from Cali.

#10 Practical Move SCRATCHED

Glad to see your posts, Midnight. Looking forward to your picks as well as Vet and if we're lucky Mikey.

#11 Disarm hasn't won since August in Saratoga. Ran 2nd to Kingsbarn. Asmussen looking for his 1st Derby win.

#12 Jace's Road has the Geroux/Cox connection. His speed won't last IMO.

#13 Sun Thunder has been beaten by 5 others in here.

#14 Angel of Empire has got Prat/Cox. Will break inside Forte. Who gets best break...Prat or Irad? They both will be closing.

#15 Forte has Irad up for brother Jose who has won 6 of 7. Wonder why the change? Anyone know?

#16 Raise Cain best race was in the mud.

#17 Derma Sotogake comes from Japan where he won 4 of 8 & banked over a million winning the UAR Derby. ML 10-1 is interesting.

#18 Rocket Can disappointed in the ARK Derby for Mott as the chalk. Blinkers may help. I'm not ready to give up on him if Mott isn't.

#19 Lord Miles won the Wood in his last @ 59-1 beating #! Hit Show. Waco Paco may cause trouble from this post.

#20 Continuar ran 3rd to the other shipper from Japan. 

@Tygermyke

 Been looking at many replays because I don't always agree with the comments in the form. The more you look, the more you see. Always good to share what we all find.

Going to Gulfstream tomorrow so I won't be around to post anything live. I'll post Friday plays in another thread so I don't screw it up for others who want to add data to help cash tickets.

Thanks for posting, Midnight. Look forward to the picks for the weekend!  Best of fortunes, mah man!

It was Irad always on Forte....

@bigred84

 Thanks red!

Brisnet shows it as Jose not Irad in the PP's results, so it didn't make sense to fix something that wasn't broken.

Got quite a buzz on & it's great to have a buddy that loves driving to the track.

Life is good.

@Tygermyke

 I will post my annual Kentucky Derby analysis tomorrow, Myke. So glad to see you and Vet are kicking it.

Hall of Famer Javier Castellano has never won a Kentucky Derby. Tomorrow he rides #8 Mage.

Owner Vincent Viola has the Florida Panthers looking good. Oh yeah, he also owns Forte. 

@Midnight1

 Your thoughts on Forte and his foot issues, Midnight?

@mikeyp1

 One other item, Tyger.....One of the great experiences in racing I have had was when me and my pal, Jim, met up with you and your buddy at Fairgrounds. I think it was the Pyro win at the Risen Star that day. WOW! I will always remember that day.

@mikeyp1

 Didn't like him stumbling Thursday & expected him to be less than 3-1. So, I wonder why he isn't. Pletch says he's ready to fire. When I look at his last race, it took a lot for him to catch Mage. Even though he won going away, I think Mage's move was more impressive. See what you think if you haven't done so.

Maybe 3-1 is the right price. Before his last 2 when he was the chalk, he won at 5-1, 4-1 & 7-1. 

Plenty can change between now & post time.

@Midnight1

 I think you're spot on with your analysis. I want so much to bet MAGE to win, but not being raced as a two year old scares  me. Nonetheless, I am including MAGE in one of my wheels on top. Do we take Pletch at his word that Forte is OK? I don't see him ever putting a horse of this status in jeopardy. What sayeth you? Thanks for your solid thoughts.

Mid, great synopsis of the field. Disarm and AOE seem to be getting alot of respect from some people whose advice I recognize. Going to play them in exotics. 

Personally, Kingsbarns and Forte look the best to me. Sure Forte is chalk but we may look back at 4-1 or so and think how in the hell did he get away at that number. What were people thinking? 

Derma in particular scares me a bit. Watched that UAE derby and felt that he may have something left in the tank for today. Cant discount the job the Japanese have been doing last few years in BC races. This may be a breakthrough for them. Putting the Worldly Manners and that ilk to the way side. 

Enjoy the race friend. 

6-14-15-11-17 for me. 

One last thing, dont play Hit Show at all. Saw Manny Franco interview in NY yesterday he looked like he didnt even want to come down for the race. Absolutely pissed off during interview.

 Good Luck Midnight

Old timer may have had one too many pops yesterday at the track. Haha. 

Bol on the plays today! Hope to see your picks.

@mikeyp1

 Well, I guess we got our answer on the health of Forte.

One other note, Verifying threw his exercise ride on Thursday & ran off until an outrider caught up with him. Don't know what to make of it. 

I believe I heard Irad bumped Rosario off Cyclone Mischief

That has to piss off Rosario big time!

What the hell is going on at Churchill????

Chloe's Dream was euthanized after the 2nd race.

What the hell is going on at Churchill????

Chloe's Dream was euthanized after the 2nd race.

Apologies...Rosario didn't get bumped off for Irad. He has the mount on Disarm