Tampa Bay Downs and Possibly Other Tracks, 11.20.24

This is for Wednesday's races.

11.20.24, Wednesday

CD 2: #6

... Has placed or won 2 of the 3 races here

... Gaffalione is the scheduled pilot

CD 4: #8

... Ward is an excellent sprint trainer

CD 6: #5

... 3 of his 4 races here, he either won or placed

... Really like the breeding

..... 2nd generation: Into Mischief

..... 3rd generation: Harlan's Holiday, AP Indy, Easy Goer

..... 4th generation: Gulch, Seattle Slew, Mr Prospecter, Alydar, Spectacular Bid

..... 5th generation: LOADED highlighted by Secretariat

Wednesday's Overnight Last 12 Months

R1

Bad: 3,4

Good: 6

R2

Bad: 1

Good: 5,6,7,8

R3

Bad: 3,5,7

Good: 8

R4

Bad: 4,5,8

Good: 1,3,7

R5

Bad: 1,3,5

Good: N/A

R6

Bad: 3,8

Good: 4,5,6

R7

Bad: 1,2,6,8,9

Good: 3,5,10

R8

Bad: 1,2,3,6,7,10,11

Good: 5

R9

Bad: 2,4,9,10

Good: 8,12

Bad is referencing a zero in the money percentage of the listed jockey and trainer.

Good is referencing a fifty plus in the money percentage of the listed jockey and trainer.

This is not the lone factor used to select the top candidates for each race.  To me, the combination should have some success together in the past year.  Those with zero percent together get down graded - it doesn't mean they can't/won't win, I just decrease their score.  Likewise, those who are good won't win every time - it doesn't mean they can't/won't, I just increase their score.

The way I analyze/break down races from here, might not be how you do it and I'm okay with that.  We may end up on the  same choice(s) and that's fine or on others which is also fine.  We're looking for profit each day.

Downgrade any/all horses not bred in either Florida or Kentucky.  The exception is when there's a race on the lawn, then add European racers as keepers.

Downgrade any/all female jockeys as they win less than 5% of the meets races.

Downgrade any/all horses that won a cheap race in their previous start.  For this track cheap is defined as $50,000 or less.

Downgrade any/all jockeys, trainers and/or combinations that are winless with ten or more starts at the current meet.

Upgrade any/all horses that have been in the money at Tampa Bay Downs.  This shows they have the ability to handle the surfaces.

Upgrade any/all horses that have been in the money at the distance.  This shows they can handle the length of the race and be competitive.

Those are the basics/starting points I use for this track.  While it may not work for you, it helps me identify contenders from the pretenders.  Their will be times that I will not use the above only because of private conversations and/or knowledge I have with the connections.

Let's have a successful day with the  

Details For Race 1 - OVERNIGHT Comments

#1: Jockey has shown to be reliable and give a quality effort based upon the horses ability. Zero for one, in the money at the distance and making debut at Tampa.

#2: This combination, separate and together, meet after meet is always near the top for wins (at this track).  The workout on the 15th was visually impressive.  Flipside is the horse has never raced at Tampa or the distance.

#3: A couple things popped out at me instantly about this one.  One, wasn't bred in FL or KY.  Two, female jockey scheduled for the race.  Was a beaten favorite last race.

#4: Never raced at Tampa, BUT always in the money, 3 of 3, at the distance.  The trainer comes into the meet with a fairly large stable (I think it's 40) which tells me, he's ready to make a run for the wins title.  While A.G. is a top jockey, he does, better in turf races at the Olds mar Oval.

#5: Bred in New Jersey.  1 of 3 in the money at the distance. Last workout wasn't visually impressive but history of the trainer shows/states he doesn't like to be explosive for workouts.

#6: Female pilot.  Placed in the lone race at the distance.

Program picks: 4-3-2-1

Heading into track changes here are my top two, in no particular order are, the two and the four.  Looking for a long shot, the five fits the bill.

The one has been scratched.  As of right now, still like the listed selections.  The walking ring and post parade still remain for ticket building.

Results race 1: 2-4-5-6-3

2 paid $6.00, $3.00 and $2.40

4 paid $2.80 and $2.40

5 paid $3.00

$1 exacta paid $9.80

$0.50 trifecta paid $14.45

Hope all were profitable from this race.  

For the following race, down grade any/all trainer, jockey and combination that won the previous race.

No system is 100% perfect but what I list and wager will give us a chance to be profitable.

 with the rest of the card.  

Using the above, for race 2, it provided all readers & punters the $58 winner, the $100.80 exacta and $628 trifecta.  

I get it, this is after the race, but it's all posted above.

The 1 had female jockey.  

The 4, 5, 6 and 7 not bred in FL or KY.

That left the 2, 3 and 8 as my choices/selections/wagers.

This race earned over $700 profit. 

Don't be foolish and increase your wagers just because you're up currently.

Starting to work on Saturday's past performances.  

Recapping yesterday.

4 races were won from bad combinations.

3 races were won from good combinations.

2 races were won from neutral combinations.

... Neutral combinations being neither bad nor good.

Favorites won twice.

None of them placed.

Two showed.

No trainer won back to back races.

No trainer had multiple wins.

Samy Camacho, jockey, won back to back races (7th & 8th).

Samy Camacho had four wins on the card.

Sara Hess, female jockey, won a race - female riders are 1 for 9 (win).

4 winners came from GP (last race).

1 first-timer won.

4 winners had previously raced at Tampa Bay Downs.

5 winners had not previously raced at Tampa Bay Downs.

Kevin Rice, trainer, won the last race on the card.

Israel Rodriguez, jockey won the last race on the card. 

Those are the basics of things to track to be successful, to me, if one wagers this track consistently/regularly.  While the meet is slow, I might be able to provide additional updates but as you can see, there is alot of work needed to be profitable/successful at/from this track.

Hope all were as profitable as I was yesterday, if not greater/more. 

Very few people can summarize their capping as well as you have. Thanks for sharing.

Thank you.  My thoughts are, if we all share what works for us, it might help others have  a cash positive experience.  Once the regular CFB season is done, I'll be there more times than not.  Until then, I'm in constant contact with family and friends who attend and pass along quality information.  Sometimes, I receive it in time for an upcoming race, sometimes not but it's nice knowing others are trying to aid others for a successful day.

Despite my young age, I've already learned a few important things about horseracing.  The most important one, to me, is I don't need to make a bet on each and every race I'm watching - that doesn't include the second or third leg of multiple race tickets (daily doubles, pick 3's), just could be aside from the multies don't like the individual race.

It's just like with other sports I'm not nearly as successful, so I read others thoughts, make my on decisions and have been getting more tickets correct/right.