Keeneland is colder today but should be fast and firm/good GP and SA look nice and hot. Didn’t cap Big A as looks to be sloppy and maybe off turf. Bummer as they have good card today. Good luck!
Keeneland
Race 1 #1 Master of Arms 10-1 ml Has been off since March but Ron Moquett can fire off layoffs and works have been steady for his return. Has run races as a 3 yr old that can beat these types.
Race 2 #12 Perfect Prankster 15-1 ml Bomb is a first timer in this very tough looking maiden race. Many of these runners are high priced for top connections. Hoping those need a race. This one has been training at TP and looks fast and ready already. Draws Prat also.
Race 3 #5 Icicles 6-1 ml is my Best Bet Comes to Ennis barn off a 10 month break after showing she was a solid race horse as a 2yr old. Ran a race time in her career debut Nov 22 that could win this race. With normal improvement now as a 3 yr old she may run these off their feet.
Race 4 #2 Lady Arsinoe 12-1 ml has shown some signs of life in her last few after a disappointing career so far. There is some real font end pace in this race and this one will need that to flatter her late kick. There is no doubt she is going to be rolling late with Joel- hope its in time.
Race 5 #9 Haul 8-1 ml crushed in his debut then raced evenly in the Gr II Saratoga Special as a 2-1 player. Off since that try and cuts back to 6 furlongs today with Saez on board looking to stalk and pounce.
Race 6 #3 Let My People Go 10-1 ml should get the dream inside closing trip that the 5.5 turf races at Keeneland produce when there is super pace signed on. Ton of confirmed front runners in this one and hope he takes to this turf course. Watch out late if so.
Race 7 #4 Static Fire 7/2 ml is tough to figure and steps way up in class but she has run twice on dirt and won easily both times. Was off nearly a year and came back last out at KD and crushed on turf at 6.5. Hoping she is a freak on both surfaces and handles the huge step up. Probably get like 4 or 5 to 1 on her.
Race 8 #1 Gina Romantica 10-1 ml for Brant/Brown comb-- enough said? I’ll always play the bigger price on the Brown 2nd or 3rd best horse in a race. 3rd start of break and 1-1 at Keeneland and that was her career fastest race. She is 4 and still has potential improvement in her and the fav is a 5 yr old maybe on the downslide.
Race 9 #1 The Wine Steward 8-1 ml 3 for 3 NY bred stretches out and takes on the big boys here. Bet hard in every race and passed every test. Can rate and Maker knows if horses can get distance.
Race 10 #9 Annapolis 6-1 ml needs to show some more early zip to win this race. There isn’t much pace signed on for a Gr I turf mile so he needs to break and start to front and try to stalk the one pace player in this one. Then maybe he can hold off the closers which are the favs. His best race was this race last also at 6-1 where he did the exact stalking trip for a lifetime best number that had a soft mile pace.
Race 11 #11 Latta 20-1 ml Bomb was a 170k purchase last year off his the stallions 25k stud fee and gets Geroux on board in a absolute crazy loaded 2 yr old maiden field. Should get 20-1 or much higher even and worth a gamble.
Sat Oct 7th Keeneland, GP, SA Price Plays
Gulfstream Park
Race 1 #1 Noble Star 15-1 ml Bomb was bought by trainer 2 years ago and is bred for the all weather route like todays race. It’s a 16k maiden claimer so wouldn’t have to be much in her career debut to compete. Was a 5k purchase so if she is claimed it wouldn’t hurt much.
Race 2 #1 Ember 4-1 ml is my Best Bet and has relished the switch to all weather this year while starting to win through his conditions. Steps up to 8k nw3 after destroying nw2 and will close late and get this
Race 3 #2 Casually 4-1 ml has run some good races without getting a W in 4 lifetime starts. Looks like this field is weaker then a few others she lost to so should be right there at better odds now.
Race 4 #1 This Run’s for You 6-1 ml has been a disappointing claim for Walder barn since June but catches a field at 7 furlongs that doesn’t scare anyone. Should be in top flight early and can outlast the fav coming late.
Race 5 #10 Zaino 10-1 ml gets to stretch out and get back to dirt after running respectable against tougher on turf and synthetic in April and May. This 2 yr old group doesn’t seem to have much to it and this one been working fast for return.
Race 6 #6 Benelux 20-1 ml Bomb was racing good races at this 10k level last year on all weather maybe can fire fresh off a 7 month break. The 16k turf races early this year muddy up his form. Price could be huge
Race 7 #7 Executive Search 8-1 ml cuts back to preferred sprint off a strange route try last out. He is a all weather sprinter has been decent this year. Should get a perfect hot pace in front of him to come late.
Race 8 #6 Pawky 6-1 ml gets back to all weather route at GP after a ambitious try at KD early Sept. Had a breeze a week ago and if she keeps showing improvement like she has been doing she can compete in her first stake try.
Race 9 #3 Olivia Darling 10-1 is fast and she has had a good 4 yr old season and now tries a Gr III stake and I think she sits 3rd behind the two outside horses that should set crazy fractions then get thru mid race and hold off the fav closers. 1 for 1 at GP in fast race so should handle track.
Race 10 #7 Church Girl 20-1 ml Bomb She fits fine vs these cheap 16k 2 yr old claimers She started her career in July on all weather vs MSW and wasn’t horribly slow. Then tried dirt and did 0. She can wake up back on all weather against these types.
Santa Anita
Race 1 #6 Sultry Kitten 12-1 ml switched to dirt last out and races well after showing pace and going evenly to the finish. Has had some fast works now at Santa Anita and can compete at decent odds.
Race 2 #1 Devil Moon 6-1 ml is my Best Bet and likes this SA turf and distance and should be towards the front early to secure the rail position and also can stalk and pounce if needed.
Race 3 #2 Scalable 5-1 ml should appreciate the stretch out and its weird that Pletcher comes out here off her lone average try at 7 furlongs at Saratoga. Repole Stable does make these moves occasionally and expects to win so she must be feeling and training well. Maybe she is legit then they can keep her out here for the Breeders Cup Juv Fillies race next month.
Race 4 #4 Tranche 6-1 ml is very quick should grab the lead early moving to 5 furlongs on the turf. The SA turf is kind to pace types so if he takes to it ok he can go gate to wire.
Race 5 #5 Stolen Treasure 6-1 ml raced great in first dirt start and figures to improve in 3rd career start.
Race 6 #5 Guy Named Joe 15-1 ml Bomb stretches out and tried turf for 2nd lifetime start and is out of a More Than Ready mare and should relish this. Raced ok at 6.5 at Del Mar first out so should come out racing towards the front also which is important in a large 2 yr old maiden field going a mile on turf.
Race 7 #7 Elevado 5-1 ml responded to the drop and switch to dirt at Del Mar last out and was claimed by Glatt which is a big trainer upgrade. Faces better today but not a super tough field and can win right back.
Race 8 #3 Juncture 8-1 ml is an unknown but normally comes late and maybe the increased distance helps some. Cox sending her out to SA for Juddmonte makes me think something is there.
Race 9 #4 Wine Me Up 12-1 ml is the other Baffert in here. By Vino Rosso out of a Kittens Joy mare so bred to run all day long. Bobbled at start in only race and still got lead and held so showed talent. Steady works at the track costs 300k form a 15k stud fee this year so you know he is nice and well meant.
Race 10 #6 Alvina 8-1 ml is getting better since moving to the states and finally had a clean trip last out. Was group II placed in France so she has class and with a normal break she will be flying late.
Hot Forum Topics
