Preakness

Both of my friends are going to read this looking for a Preakness play.  Fledgling players, sharp enough, would like to hook them into cappin.  Recommending they bet the big horse at 6-5 would do little to further my cause.  So, going to give them a pick four ticket, ending with the Preakness, figuring if I can stay alive race to race, it would increase their interest and maybe get 10-1 on their wager, which will not be immaterial. 

Always try to make a case for my selections/bets yet am often pressed for time and the research/passion/experience/ long track record/ limited commentary is lacking in what I post.  Amazed at some here on the other forums, SF +6 is there only comment.  Mind boggling many assume such as gospel, especially in a binary venture at odds of 11-10. If you are still reading a competent capper can make good coinage.

 Again trying to get to the big horse, start with race 10 the Sir Barton.  Named after triple crown winner 8.5 dirt panels restricted sophs, non-stakes winners. And what shows up a pair of stallions!  Both will stand yet have only broken their maidens.

Sir Barton

CRUDO off the fence for Todd, could be any kind.  By Justify out of a mare that has produced pure gold!  Multiple grade winners and a full sister has won all 8 of her voyages in Japan.  Master chef, pedigree expert, B Flay acquires this one as a weanling, 350K, names it CREDO, (raw fish).  Debuts, Hallandale, big move, ran out of training, normal, Johnny a couple of taps, wrapped up. Time off, repeated bullets preceded Kee turn da force, on the engine, at less than .50 cents on the dollar, ears pricked more to give.  Best of 65 @ Oklahoma ensues, long gone here as second choice. 

Not so fast my friends, INVICTUS, By Into Mischief, out of Kentucky Oaks winner, (my largest win bet ever) has shown serious talent. Also, a poor debut, time off, Keeneland romp, yet had lead change issues.  Very solid morning activity for this, Prat on the reride always a plus.  Out of character, for me, possible sequence inclusion may be the Laoban colt. Ill-fated sire won the Jim Dandy as a maiden, wouldn't breed, Winstar gave him a "vitamin" injection, horse died, lawsuits pending. Smallish, 8k yearling is a race horse. As of now 70% single, 20% two deep, 10% J Rod on the reride. Not a sexy selection in the sequence though winning the sequence the objective.  bbb

@bellsbendboy

 Murphy

Sophs, 8f, lawn, weight per accomplishment.

Spent some time, really do not like this heat, of course that's the lure of sequence bets, one need not pick winners, just clear the race, especially when you have a standout single.

Pace always critical in two turn races and CLOCK TOWER sets it here.  Clear at the quarter pole in all five juvy starts. Last in Lexington caught a really fast one, sat second, gave way. A pair of 5f green breezes a good sign.  New boy checks the boxes, excellent at the gate, mega agressive and strong finisher, he'll need all of that her as this one can't get an inch over the mile. Lastly, this ones dam won a stake at nine panels, and he had to need his last.  END OF ROMANCE absolutely flew late in a weak maiden while green as a spring sapling, won again two months later beating Preakness entrant.  Shamrock went down on the hip to buy him privately (slightly ironic as they sold the horse to the inside of this one for $5,000).  OK off the shelf at Latonia in rich affair with trouble, shipped NY for similar spot, broke soft (first hood) closed stoutly.  REAGAN's WIT debuted in Henderson when solid second in sub 1:34, time off, duh, tour de force before getting necked in Tampa by Chad charge who came back to win Grade I @churchill.  The latter pair both get pounds fron our top choice.  Feel I'm over 70% to clear this heat and will live with the trio and shop for numbers in the Dinner Party to spice up the pick four, especially with the best horse drawing post 13.   bbb  

@bellsbendboy

 Dixie

Long time pre-Preakness fixture, solid turfers, nine poles enough purse (250K), prestige (Grade III) to chase and a big stage for the ego's.

To be sure this is a difficult heat to forecast. A few tenets; if your horse cannot close, firm/good turf, in sub :24 or sub :30, do not bet. On grass the older the better.

Landed, softly, on IRISH ACRES.  5yo gelding (early) has posted ten consecutive Beyer's 90+.  Inbred bigly, top and bottom to Northern Dancer, very competent conditioner added shades for Kee 3x wire job off the hedge, galloped out stoutly, should stay the 9, a trio of well-spaced, Florence works, huge rider upgrade, doesn't want the lead, tactical more than many here.  TRIKARI would be the most likely winner yet, tenet: wait for a 4yo to beat older before jumping in, mired outside, short price, murky pace, solid effort off the shelf vs. "Carl. $100,000 a start for the Amerman's major player if Prat works out a trip; he generally does.

Some interest in Fulmineo, Bolt colt honest talented, prepped in the Clark, ran better than he had first 4yo, drops poundage, needs a perfect trip, big price.

Need some scratch help this sequence, track sealed today, may get it. post play(s) after. bbb

@bellsbendboy

 Turn the page, on to SA tomorrow. Slim pickings today!

Race 10 Pimlico  pick four   1 / 7,10 / 13 / 2