Kentucky Derby 149 Analysis and Picks

Kentucky Derby 2023

Well, the Kentucky Derby hits its 149th year with most of us still approaching the race as if our lives depended upon our cashing a ticket. This year is no different, but as always, a handicapping challenge nonetheless, especially with FORTE out. This is the 19 year in which I’ve posted a Derby day analysis. Hope you enjoy it, but, most of all, I hope you’ll be able to take away a few things so you can win some money.

• Hit Show….Big credit for increasing his Beyer’s in every race he’s ever run, including the Wood, a race where he finished 2 to Lord Miles, a 59-1 shot. Unfortunately, the Wood of the 21Century isn’t the same Wood that we saw in Secretariat’s Triple Crown year of 1973 when he finished third! Hit Show’s second lowest career Beyer was in his lone CD race. Nonetheless, as I said, he Beyered Up in every race, so maybe a piece is in store. Never count out trainer Brad Cox and jockey Franco…25% wins as a combo in 64 races in 2022-2023, but the post is a toughie, so his late game is crucial. One last thing….those of us who worship sire Candy Ride will note that Hit Show is one of his boys. 30-1 ML. Oooooh la la?

• Verifying….I thought his Blue Grass was most impressive validated by a Beyer of 99 bested only by Tapit Trice, the ML second Derby ML fave. Verifying lost by a neck. Consider that he was brushed near the end, which might have cost him the win. He’ll likely sit back, but will he have enough kick to finish in the money? I’ll put him under in my wheels, but this is an “anything might happen” dude, and he can win it with a return to his Blue Grass form. Cox and jockey Gaffilione team at 27% wins in 2022-23. Oh, one more thing. His Pappy is Justify. I like 12-1 ML, which could drift upward.
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• Confidence Game…. Several of my solid capper friends think he has a germ of a chance based on his gutty close in the Rebel where he blasted home for the win with a 94 Beyer. He’s another Candy Ride son, but not today. Maybe his best days will be on the turf. Jockey Graham is one of the most hard-ass riders on earth. I know because he rode for me a few times and always busted his Shillelagh. Trainer Keith Desormeux a grinder and the two are hitting at 20% wins. Sorry. Can’t do it.

• Tapit Trace…Oh boy. So hard to ignore his four straight wins, 99 Beyer in winning the Blue Grass and his nice closing win in the Tampa Bay Derby. Any three-year old out of Tapit is royalty, but is he married to Meghan Markle or to Kate Middleton? Likely to go off as the fave with Forte out (he’s 5-1 ML to Forte), but I am just not sure if he’s beaten the better, unless you think Classic Carwash and Slip Mahoney are among the best. If they were, they’d be here. That said, he must be respected beause of breeding and connections. If he wins, it might come down to a slugfest in the stretch. It’s Pletcher and he is racing’s fair-haired boy right now. Backers need to really think long and hard about how this race shapes without Forte for this guy, especially with up and comers Mage, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero looming.
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• Reincarnate…I might eat my words for saying this, but a horse that got here by finishing third two times in prep races and got 10 points for winning the Sham is like getting into the NFL playoffs with an 8-9 win-loss record. I guess there’s a reason he’s 50-1 on the ML. He does have Johnny V in the saddle for Baffert clone Tim Yakteen with the duo at just 8% wins in 13 races this year. I will pass.

• Mage….If you laugh at me, I accept your mockery. I love this horse. Mage had nothing but trouble in two starts against Forte (Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby), but, in the FLA Derby, had he not gotten out slow and had gone five wide (another reason they need to race at age two—experience), it might have been a coulda’ shoulda’ woulda’ win for him.  But, guess what? No Forte today. Mage is also an unraced two-year old, which is an odds against. That said, while I am not touting him to win, I think we’ll get a nice number on him and, for me, it’s a must-include. He is improving with each race and I have a feeling that he can pick off a lot of dead ones near the end to finish in the money. He’s raced just three times, but two of them were second place finishes to the 2-year old horse of the year, Forte, in major Derby preps! His sire is out of KY Derby winner Curlin and his dam is out of Derby winner Big Brown. C’mon Man! Yeah, jockey Castellano is long in the tooth and trainer Delgado is just 12% wins in 2023. Needs to get out of the gate! However, keep your eye on the prize and the prize just might be Mage.
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• Practical Move…SCRATCHED. Keep in mind that had he run, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby would have had a legit chance for a major piece.

• Disarm... Two graded stakes on his resume, including a third place finish in the Lexington two weeks ago and a second in the Louisiana Derby where he finished almost 5L behind Kingsbarn. His career record is a very solid 5/1-2-2 and this will be his third start in 6 weeks. Improving, but maybe a tad below the better horses in this field. That said, if you like Disarm, you can build a case starting with his breeding (Gun Runner), and trainer, Asmussen, and jock, Rosario. Looks to me as one who will improve at age 4 and, just maybe, in the Kentucky Derby.

• Jace’s Road… Purchased for big $ix figures, Jace has under achieved his sale price, although he has two wins and a third place finish in the LA Derby where he was very fractious in the gate. His best Beyer was in the Gun Runner (98K), a 90, with an 85 last out. He has two races under him at Churchill, both as a 2 year old. One of them was a 36+L loss in the slop with a 22 Beyer in the G-3 Street Sense. The other was a third place in the G-3 Iroquois. Frenchie Geroux and Brad Cox connect and they’re 25% wins together in 2022-2023, so he’s got that going for him. 50-1 on the ML. No wonder, since he lost both his races in 2023 by combined 19L.
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• Angel of Empire… His wins in the Arkansas Derby and Risen Star, AOE’s last two races, put him in the spotlight. However, did he beat the best of the crop? Impressive in the Ark Derby, he had an explosive close in beating King Russell and Reincarnate, both of these, for me, somewhat suspect entrants. Angel’s Risen Star, in my opinion, was a ho-hum effort, even though he picked up an 89 Beyer in winning by one length. With this said, today could be the day for the Classic Empire colt with that closing style, perhaps, a key to victory. Trainer Cox with Prat handling the chores is a dynamite team….51 races with 37% wins in 2022-2023. Give high consideration.

• Forte… My comments before the scratch as follows: The 2-year old champ has yet to do anything wrong reeling off five wins in a row all graded stakes. Starting with the Hopeful at Saratoga last September, Forte wended his way to the BC Juve title and FOY and FLA Derby wins. With four Grade One wins and a G-2 win, he fought tooth and hoof to beat one-to-watch Mage last out by a length in the Florida Derby. DRF notes say that his 95 Beyer in FLA Derby was his “lowest Beyer since October.” OK. I’ll take a 95 any day of the week and like it! I’ll argue that Forte has faced the best competition of any of these and that counts for backers. The blazing Irad Ortiz rides for Pletcher with the duo hitting at 28% wins since 2022. I hate playing the chalk to win in any race, let alone the Kentucky Derby, but I think I gotta do it. Note from drf on Friday afternoon: “When Forte had his final gallop Friday morning for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, he was wearing a three-quarter shoe on his right front foot. A piece of the shoe was cut off at the upper part of the inside heel.  Forte seemed to be moving fine during his routine 1 3/8-mile gallop.”   Take this for what you will.
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• Derma Sotogake (JPN)…with Forte out, this guy moves up in stature, in my estimation. I have never been a big fan of Japanese horses, but, man-0-man have they come on in the past two years. Derma, out of prolific Mind Your Biscuits, might be the best Japanese starter of the few that have raced in the Derby. Nice steady work on this track, he looks ready to go coming off, what I think, was one of the most impressive performances of any prep winner when he won the G-2 UAE Derby by 5-1/2 L …ahead of three other Japanese horses; one of them was Continuar, who finished 3 and was scratched out of the Derby. He also gets a world class jock in Lemaire. Derma’s Time Form was a spicy 109, which translates (no pun intended) here. The move to an inner gate is HUGE

• Rocket Can…. Can Rocket?. On paper says no, but this son of Into Mischief gets blinkers for the first time for a former Derby winning trainer, Bill Mott, with a solid rider, Junior Alvarado, in the saddle. Keep in mind that he ran second to fave Forte in the FOY losing by 4-1/2L, and 4 behind Angel of Empire by 4-3/4 in the Arkansas Derby. Doesn’t seem fast enough to beat contenders with just one 90+ Beyer, a 91, on his slate. Part of the Super ticket for me. Note: Into Mischief filly Pretty Mischievous won the Kentucky Oks on Friday under Gaffalione for Brendan Walsh.

• Lord Miles….SCRATCHED by stewards due to trainer Saffie Joseph losing two horses this past week at CD.

• Continuar…..SCRATCHED

• Cyclone Mischief…. First of all, congrats to trainer Dale Romans for this guy drawing in after scratches. I made one of the dummest mistakes of my horse betting life last year when I completely dismissed Rich Strike after he got into the Derby following scratches. I didn’t even look at his form, which, in retrospect, showed he had promise in that race. I will never do that again. While I don’t think Cyclone can win, take a close look. He competed well in the FOY and FLA Derby with some of the betters despite outside post draws, and we could see improvement today. Looks to me like one who will be a better four year old, but don’t do dumb like me, so take a good look-see. Note: Into Mischief filly Pretty Mischievous won the Kentucky Oaks on Friday under Gaffalione for Brendan Walsh.
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• King Russell… The good news is that he scored a big second place finish in the Arkansas Derby, his first graded race. Bad news is that his Beyer was 89, not fast enough for some of these, especially from the post. His previous Beyer best was a78 two races back. King Russell is showing improvement and he has excellent closing potential. The King will need more in the stretch, if he isn’t burned out in the last furlong. Trainer Moquett is a local sharpie with decent national presence with Jockey Bejarano a prolific graded stakes winner. It will take superior tactics for King Russell to win, but he certainly has the right jock to do it. Take a shot, if you can afford to put him on your tickets.

With all of the scratches from the field, including FORTE, keep in mind that some horses move into gate positions toward the rail

Note, for the horse that will be in the 17 hole after scratches: Looking at the history of the race, the post is a killer considering that the position is 0 for 43 in Derby starts. In fact, the post has yielded just one second place (Forty-Niner in 1988) and two 3 place finishes, a 7% in-the-money rate. Right now it appears to be Mandarin Hero, but check this out after all scratches are announced.

MY PICKS:

Tapit Trice to win and place

$16 exacta box:  2, 5, 17

$8 exacta: 2, 5, 17/6, 8, 14, 22

$4 exacta:  6, 8, 14, 22/2, 5, 17

$2 tri: 2,5,17/2,5,8,14,17,22/2,5,6,8,11, 14, 17, 21,22

.10 cent Super: 2,5,17/2,5,6,8,14,17, 21,22/2,5,6,8,11,14,17, 21,22/1,2,5,6,8,11,14,17, 21,22

Agree with you on Mage. Second to Forte earlier. Why not?

Well, dont have to drive to Rivers any more if ya know what I mean.

What a break down of the derby. Thank you and good luck. 

Good luck, Mikey. My thoughts are the same on Mandarin and he's going in all my plays. I think Angel gets the jump on Tapit as far as the closers, but both will be in my boxes. Looziana cartel will have some combos of 2-5-11-14-17-22. Still fooling with those. I'm sure Mage will sneer at me when he hits the wire.

Great analysis and breakdown.

Thank you, Mikey

BOL today! 

Nice writing! …. I’m riding 2 5 8 17 box. 

Thanks for the info gonna try my luck on 3 horses

Tap it Trice +490

Reincarnate +3000

Mandarin Hero +1500

BOL ! 

Great write up! Mage did it!

Thanks, your write up is why I took Mage. Thanks!

Hit the exacta thanks to your Mage capping!

@PhillyPhilly

 thank YOU. Appreciate the compliment.

@Inblood

 Much appreciated and Congrats!

@Inblood

Not saying Mage is a Triple Crown winner, but quite the horse going forward.