I once was a regular weekly contributor to this forum, but got lost in the pandemic years. I decided to come out of hiding for today's big races via the Florida Derby and Arkansas dDerby.
FLA Derby: The upfront speed here is beyond legit, but I see no real closer of import to catch those that take on wind toward the end. Speed with stamina seems to be the ticket to the circle.
1) 1) Strike Hard…..Compared to the rest, he doesn’t appear to have quite what it takes. However, he’s done a fare job sniffing around Simplification and White Abarrio and lost by just 6-1/2 to Causeway on a day when the winner had it his way. Might be a bit of a task, but if it falls apart, he’s a definite could-be. Gets Junior Alvarado back and that’s good. I will include under.
2) 2) Classic Causeway…..On a huge roll with Ortiz Jr. aboard and at a track that seems to play into his style….especially if it comes up wet, as forecasters are predicting. He’s been beaten by Smile Happy and Rattle N’ Roll, arguably two of the best. Not sure he will take the lead, his normal forte', but, in this field, that might be good as long as he stays close. He killed it in the Sam Davis, but might not get the same trip. Nonetheless, he’s the goods for a major award.
3) 3) Simplification…..If you appreciate the game, you had to be impressed with this FOY where he dug before blasting to a 3-1/2L win and a 96 Beyer, the second highest in the field. His fine closing kick might be his route to victory assuming he’s going to be a bit off pace. Not ready to toss his Holy Bull, but he had a few yips on a day when White Abarrio (97 Beyer, highest in the field) was a champ. Can’t argue with J. Ortiz handling the chores, but I think this win comes up to good ol’ fashion tactics.
4)King of Truth…..At 50-1, all you need to know is that he lost to Strike Hard by 42L at Keeneland.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I once was a regular weekly contributor to this forum, but got lost in the pandemic years. I decided to come out of hiding for today's big races via the Florida Derby and Arkansas dDerby.
FLA Derby: The upfront speed here is beyond legit, but I see no real closer of import to catch those that take on wind toward the end. Speed with stamina seems to be the ticket to the circle.
1) 1) Strike Hard…..Compared to the rest, he doesn’t appear to have quite what it takes. However, he’s done a fare job sniffing around Simplification and White Abarrio and lost by just 6-1/2 to Causeway on a day when the winner had it his way. Might be a bit of a task, but if it falls apart, he’s a definite could-be. Gets Junior Alvarado back and that’s good. I will include under.
2) 2) Classic Causeway…..On a huge roll with Ortiz Jr. aboard and at a track that seems to play into his style….especially if it comes up wet, as forecasters are predicting. He’s been beaten by Smile Happy and Rattle N’ Roll, arguably two of the best. Not sure he will take the lead, his normal forte', but, in this field, that might be good as long as he stays close. He killed it in the Sam Davis, but might not get the same trip. Nonetheless, he’s the goods for a major award.
3) 3) Simplification…..If you appreciate the game, you had to be impressed with this FOY where he dug before blasting to a 3-1/2L win and a 96 Beyer, the second highest in the field. His fine closing kick might be his route to victory assuming he’s going to be a bit off pace. Not ready to toss his Holy Bull, but he had a few yips on a day when White Abarrio (97 Beyer, highest in the field) was a champ. Can’t argue with J. Ortiz handling the chores, but I think this win comes up to good ol’ fashion tactics.
4)King of Truth…..At 50-1, all you need to know is that he lost to Strike Hard by 42L at Keeneland.
5) Pappacap……If he could return to form?…….Not sure he will, but this is a decent horse who might be better as an older three-year old, or, perhaps, next year. Gun Runner out of a Scat Daddy mare says that this is his distance, but he got clobbered by 14-1/2L at 1-1/8 miles in the Risen Star. Gonzales is back in the saddle for Casse with these two combining for a 25% win clip last year and in 2022. Surprised he’s at A relatively paltry 10-1 considering he’s really done little against the good ones. However, if he returns to form…..6)
6) Charge It……Here’s the “X” factor, a colt that has been put in the same exact spot that Pletcher has placed lightly raced three-year old's in past FLA Derby’s. Pletch has won 6 Florida Derby races, including 5 of the last 8. Charge It will be out fast and trying to either run and hide or hang on for the win. I do like his stretching out. If he wins this, my guess is that he will be considered one of the Top 3 KY Derby contenders. Out of Tapit and the mare I’ll Take Charge, which is breeding royalty.
7) White Abarrio……He’s at odds of 3-1 , but is he also an “X” factor taking on this much power? Looks on paper that he will show up and compete as he’s done with a number of the better three-year old's. He did finish behind Classic Causeway in the KY JC at age 2, but this is a new day in the life of a young three-year old. I expect he will be battling for both position and strength against some of these ruffians. Boffo works and Tyler G is at the top of his game as a jockey for a trainer winning at a combined 20% over the past 15 months.
8) Cajun’s Magic……Talent here and seems to be a good low-level stakes and ALW. player. Didn’t fare well in the Bull, so he’ll have to run like a monster to win against these.
9) O Captain…..Like this guy a lot with a good amount of potential. Needs a great deal of forward progress to win this, but he kept his chin up in the FOY, although not a serious threat, earning an 88 Beyer finishing by 4-1/2L to Simplification. He does have a tinge of closing kick, so take a good look-see for at least some at 20-1. Rosario handling the strap, which I like.
10) Clapton…..The guy is 9/2-2-2 at Gulfstream; not bad. However, not good enough against these after beating NW1 state breds. He does have crafty local Jaramillio in the reigns, but I don’t think it’s enough to be a factor.
11) Steal Sunshine……Well, his daddy, Constitution, won this race in 2014, but his form and the post against this bunch doesn’t look good. In addition, he’s gone the distance with Pappacap being the only other one in the field to do so.
5) Pappacap……If he could return to form?…….Not sure he will, but this is a decent horse who might be better as an older three-year old, or, perhaps, next year. Gun Runner out of a Scat Daddy mare says that this is his distance, but he got clobbered by 14-1/2L at 1-1/8 miles in the Risen Star. Gonzales is back in the saddle for Casse with these two combining for a 25% win clip last year and in 2022. Surprised he’s at A relatively paltry 10-1 considering he’s really done little against the good ones. However, if he returns to form…..6)
6) Charge It……Here’s the “X” factor, a colt that has been put in the same exact spot that Pletcher has placed lightly raced three-year old's in past FLA Derby’s. Pletch has won 6 Florida Derby races, including 5 of the last 8. Charge It will be out fast and trying to either run and hide or hang on for the win. I do like his stretching out. If he wins this, my guess is that he will be considered one of the Top 3 KY Derby contenders. Out of Tapit and the mare I’ll Take Charge, which is breeding royalty.
7) White Abarrio……He’s at odds of 3-1 , but is he also an “X” factor taking on this much power? Looks on paper that he will show up and compete as he’s done with a number of the better three-year old's. He did finish behind Classic Causeway in the KY JC at age 2, but this is a new day in the life of a young three-year old. I expect he will be battling for both position and strength against some of these ruffians. Boffo works and Tyler G is at the top of his game as a jockey for a trainer winning at a combined 20% over the past 15 months.
8) Cajun’s Magic……Talent here and seems to be a good low-level stakes and ALW. player. Didn’t fare well in the Bull, so he’ll have to run like a monster to win against these.
9) O Captain…..Like this guy a lot with a good amount of potential. Needs a great deal of forward progress to win this, but he kept his chin up in the FOY, although not a serious threat, earning an 88 Beyer finishing by 4-1/2L to Simplification. He does have a tinge of closing kick, so take a good look-see for at least some at 20-1. Rosario handling the strap, which I like.
10) Clapton…..The guy is 9/2-2-2 at Gulfstream; not bad. However, not good enough against these after beating NW1 state breds. He does have crafty local Jaramillio in the reigns, but I don’t think it’s enough to be a factor.
11) Steal Sunshine……Well, his daddy, Constitution, won this race in 2014, but his form and the post against this bunch doesn’t look good. In addition, he’s gone the distance with Pappacap being the only other one in the field to do so.
Where y'at Mikey. Glad to see you back-if even for a couple. I'm trying to be three places at once today with grandkids and LSU playing ball so I'm probably tailing you. I like Pappacap to hit the board, Johnny, and we should get more than 10-1 at post. Good luck to all in all endeavors.
Where y'at Mikey. Glad to see you back-if even for a couple. I'm trying to be three places at once today with grandkids and LSU playing ball so I'm probably tailing you. I like Pappacap to hit the board, Johnny, and we should get more than 10-1 at post. Good luck to all in all endeavors.
You're a busy man, as usual. Hope you and the family are well. I've been catching some Tiger baseball on SEC Network. My youngest son went to Mizzou, but I don't consider them the "real" Tigers of the SEC. Good luck and so good to hear from you.
@Tygermyke
You're a busy man, as usual. Hope you and the family are well. I've been catching some Tiger baseball on SEC Network. My youngest son went to Mizzou, but I don't consider them the "real" Tigers of the SEC. Good luck and so good to hear from you.
Excellent race......great run by White Abarrio. Charge looks like he needed the race for seasoning, but he ran a very good race. What happened to Causeway?
Excellent race......great run by White Abarrio. Charge looks like he needed the race for seasoning, but he ran a very good race. What happened to Causeway?
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