DERBY TALK

Did you know trainer Chad Brown has never won a Derby? I didn't.

The wise guys are talking about Brown's Emerging Markets. Lightly raced because he was sick as a 2 year old & has only 2 starts winning both. In his last @ the Fairgrounds he got leg weary down the stretch but showed tons of heart winning by half a head. Getting the distance is my 1st unknown.

Jockey Christian Torres gets his 1st Derby mount for trainer Mark Casse on Silent Tactic. Torres learned to ride @ Casse's training center. Casse hasn't won the Derby yet either. Torres has a ride in the Oak's in Search Party for Casse. I'm playing a $2 OAKS/DERBY DOUBLE just in case this kid does something outstanding.

Bill Mott is adding blinkers for Chief Wallabee. Jockey Junior Alvarado says this guy has a bad habit of raising his head in the late stages of a race & loses focus. That's a big equipment change leading up to a big race but I'm pretty sure Mott knows what he's doing.

Feel free to feed info here.

Ahh.. renegade gets the dreaded number one post. Well he was going to presumably fall back anyhow so maybe it’s ok. 
My own feeling is it will help his odds if you are backing renegade. 
Further ado connections should be very happy with their post as they wanted him on the outside. They got their wish.

The Oaks will be televised on national prime time TV for the 1st time on Friday night before the Derby. It can be seen on NBCSN or PEACOCK. I don't know anyone who pays for PEACOCK.

Have you seen/heard of announcer John Fanta? Interesting character. He'll report from the infield on Oaks & Derby days. Supposedly he's never wore the color pink & will have to at the Oaks. The guy isn't exactly a fashion plate. You'll see

Flavien Prat has raced in the Derby 8 times & ITM (IN The Money) 6 of 8 with a 8-1-1-4. He'll be onboard Emerging Market.

Mike Smith (59) entered the Hall of Fame in 2003. Twenty three years later, he'll be riding So Happy. Smith won on Giacomo in 2005 & won the Triple Crown on Justify in 2018.

Trainer Ken McPeek says his Right To Party will have to run the race of his life to win. Not exactly a glowing recommendation.

Manny Franco is considered the best athlete in the jock community & he'll try for the 8th time to win the Derby on Albus who won the Wood Memorial. Eleven horses that won the Wood, have also won the Derby.

Glad to see Todd Schrupp working again at FOX after losing his job at FanDuel. The other announcers/analysts will also lose their jobs in the near future as well. FanDuel calls it a change in the business model. I first met Schrupp at Calder in 76. He did his schtick from the walking ring & was always talking with the crowd. Lots of people think he's annoying but he kind of grows on you.

Owner of Renegade Mike Repole said he wouldn't change posts with anyone. I'm calling bullshit! Nobody wants the #1 hole in a 20 horse field. I don't think Brown or Irad like the post. Repole can be a bit of a blowhard so maybe he made that comment with gritted teeth. Irad will have to get him into a safe spot & then make his closing move.

Brad Cox has 3 in the Derby & I was watching him during the post draw yesterday. He just shook his head when Further Ado got post 18 & Fulleffort got post 20. He did get lucky with Commandment drawing post 6. 

Just watched a replay of the March 21st Louisiana Derby when Emerging Market held on to win. But check out the 3rd place finisher Gold Tempo. Got pinched at the start & lost about 7 lengths. So Jose Ortiz just took him to the rail, made a move & closed for 3rd. Worth a watch if you have access.

Pavlovian is the most experienced having gone 10-2-4-1 & will like it if we come up muddy. 

Post time Saturday is 11 AM EST & the undercard is stacked with full fields & very nice purses. It's going to be a very long day & plenty of opportunities to hit a nice one. The last race, race 14 post time isn't until 8:33; we have 2 more races to play after the Derby. Gotta pace yourself for sure.

CORRECTION: RENEGADE'S TRAINER IS TODD PLETCHER NOT CHAD BROWN

There hasn't been a winner from the rail in almost 40 years. Ferdinand was the last to do it. Not trying to talk anyone off Renegade. Pletcher had  the rail twice before with Known Agenda (ran 8th) & Mo Donegal (ran 5th). He's got 2 wins with Super Saver & Always Dreaming. Renegade owner Mike Repole is 0 for 8 in the Derby. No tears for Irad/Pletch/Repole; they have the favorite in the Oaks on Friday with #2 Zany. 

At 43, Edwin Maldonado gets his 1st Derby mount on #16 Pavlovian. He's been around for quite awhile & has won over 61 million in purse money. Most jockeys never get this chance. It never happens for them. For the jockeys in the race, it's the Super Bowl, Masters, 7th game in the World Series all rolled up in one race. Don't forget that Pavlovian ran 2nd to #15 Emerging Market & #19 Golden Tempo ran 3rd. Personally, I think Prat nursed Emerging Market to the wire & his last race may have taken a lot out of him. We'll see.

When it comes to workouts, you never know what they really mean. I've seen jocks lose a mount because they pushed a horse too hard in a workout. Which brings me to #3 Intrepido who worked a bullet yesterday going a half mile in 45 to be best of 71 that worked out. Talk about a blowout work! Trainer Jeff Mullins ships this guy in from Cali. Speaking of Mullins, he was on the track & got "cow kicked" & broke his leg. #11 Incredibolt was 2nd fastest work going a half mile in :47 which sounds a little more reasonable. Mott had Chief Wallabee go 49:20 for a half mile with Junior in the saddle. There is other workout info available but these caught my eye.

A trainer I happen to like, Cherie DeVaux has her 1st Derby entrant in #15 Golden Tempo. She's got 3 others on the card & Jose Ortiz rides all 4.

#16 Six Speed ships in from Meydan & has a rep of being hard to handle. Hope he doesn't start shit at the gate. These young colts are very temperamental. He's won 3 of 5 but not sure of the quality he raced against. Brian Hernández gets the mount & don't forget he won the Derby in 2024 on Mystic Dan.

Baffert scratched Bottle of Rouge in the Oaks. His wife owns the filly. So #15 Lovely Grey gets in.

A lot of stuff can happen between now & Saturday morning.

@Midnight1

 Good stuff as always midnight 

Year in and year out I always check your insights and very astute write ups on the big races.

Just out of curiosity was wondering your thoughts on commandment as a potential winner seeing his earnings are impressive and mostly accumulated with four straight wins including his Florida derby win and now with a rather desirable post #6 draw.

Thanks for your impressive knowledge on the sport of kings Midnight and sharing with us old broken down horse players.

Midnight quick story about Giacomo. Played in all / Giacomo exacta in the Derby that year with my last $20. should have went to the Time Machine and got that extra 20 to box it because he came in first as we all know with a horse called vision in verse I think 70-1 ?. I believe that was his name)to pay likely the highest payouts recorded.$7000 exacta. Still breaks my heart.

Side note 

NoBluegrass winner has won the Kentucky Derby since 1991.

Golden tempo numbers are solid (no regression in all 4 races) Will like the distance, and will be on most of my tickets in one way or another.Big fan of trainer also.

@justliketoplay

 Thanks for the kind words. I think we have some "newbies" who primarily throw a few bucks on the Derby but stay away most of the year because they are convinced horse racing is too difficult to make money. So I write this stuff with them in mind & assume they don't know what AE, ITM & other terms mean.

@vetdrm

 I agree that Golden Temp should like the extra distance & will be closing with the rest of the cavalry. I'll be capping the Derby card this evening & hope to find a few gems. I think we get a "free square" in the 10th race with #6 Knightsbridge but the rest of the card is very competitive.

@Midnight1

 Always a must read this time of year. Thanks for the insight, as usual very informative.

@mrusso

 Thanks I appreciate it.

There are 2 jockeys that have a mount in all 14 races & they are Irad & Prat. Tyler & Jose Ortiz have 13, Johnny V has 12, Saez & Juan Hernandez have 9, Franco has 8, Junior & Brian Hernandez have 7. 

As far as trainers, Baffert has 9, Pletcher has 7, Mott & Mark Casse have 6 & Mike McCarthy has 5 on the card.

Be sure to check out the wardrobe of Michael Iavarone & his wife Jules in the paddock area during the 6th race. They will both be showered in something gold. They are  pretty wild.   

@Midnight1

 Good luck this weekend!

I was at Belmont Park quite a few years ago on a weekday. The horses come on the track and I watch them in the post parade going by when the guy next to me asks to borrow my pen. It’s Iavarone and his significant other. He initiates conversation to the point where he asks me if his horse has a shot. My reply was that his runner just missed the track record by 3/5 of a second in his last start going the same distance, so I think he’s got a shot (not). 

You can imagine what he was wearing. Same for his partner.  His horse? Probably was attached to a carriage two months later.

I enjoy reading what trainers/jocks say about their mounts.

Bob Baffert has won the the Derby 6 times & says his #14 Potente wants no part of a speed duel because that was his downfall in the Santa Anita Derby as the beaten chalk. His last workout was a blistering 57.8 going 5F & Juan Hernandez is onboard for the 1st time. He won the San Felipe stalking @ 8-1. His other entrant is #4 Litmus who comes off a disappointing 7th in the Arkansas Derby when jockey Arrieta had him 4 wide the entire race which Renegade won. Surprised Baffert has this guy entered.

Here is some speed data from their last races with the corresponding legend.

Silent Tactic scratches. minor foot issue.

(also eligible)Great White enters the field

(Good band . Not sure about the horse

Iavarone is a character. I'd love to see him & Repole in a debate

@justliketoplay

 I rewatched the Florida Derby where Prat just got there with Commandment by a nose to catch The Puma & Chief Wallabee running 3rd by less than a half length. Prat came about 7 wide to get Commandment moving in the small 6 horse field. He won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream with the same closing move to win by a neck in a 9 horse field. Three races back he blew away the field at the top of the stretch. I worry that Prat will have to make the same closing move in a 20 horse field & even though he won the Fla Derby, he had to go 7 wide to do it. He definitely wants no part of a speed dule up front. Hell, he's won 4 of 5 & in great form right now. I'm sure Brian Cox has him well tuned for Saturday. 

It's said pace makes the race & here's a breakdown of racing styles.

FRONTRUNNERS.. #17 SIX SPEED; #16 PAVLOVIAN

CLOSE TO THE PACE: #18 FURTHER ADO; #7 DANON BOURBON; #14 POTENTE; #8 SO HAPPY; #3 INTREPIDO; #4 LITMUS TEST

MID PACK..#12 CHIEF WALLABEE; #9 THE PUMA; #15 EMERGING MARKET; #10 WONDER DEAN; #11 INCREDIBOLT; #20 GREAT WHITE

LATE RUNNERS..#1 RENEGADE; #2 ALBUS,#6 COMMANDMENT

DEEP CLOSERS..#20 FULLEFFORT; #19 GOLDEN TEMPO; #5 RIGHT TO PARTY  

Kentucky Derby 2026

Hope this works

Shit...

There's a lot of data there but way too much to type.

I don't know if this was a joke or not but I heard that in Great White's stall they play the theme from Jaws.

Wondering which post has won the most Derby's since 1930? It's #5 which is great for those who like Right to Party

I'm from the capping school of watching replays of races because you learn so much that you can't get in the racing form. You can open an account with plenty of places with $50 bucks and get all the free replays & past performances you need. I highly recommend it.

In the last 14 days, the combo of Irad & Brad Cox are a sizzling 18-8-5 -1. In the 3rd race, they have #5 John Hancock ML 6-1; Race 6 #2 Dragoon Guard ML 3-1.

Wait until you see the size of #7 Dannon Bourbon. He's huge!

And The Puma has crazy eyes. Like aggressive looking crazy. 

Trainer Cherie DeVaux is a disciple of Chad Brown & has about 100 horses under her care. She's got Golden Tempo who will be racing at another track other than the Fair Grounds for the 1st time. She added blinkers in his last & Jose Ortiz thinks it helped keep him focused. Since he's a dead closer, she doesn't mind post 19 because it will allow for Ortiz to get a spot down the rail & let everybody else get bounced around, steadied etc. Make sure you give her colt a look in the 9th race. She has #12 Remember Mamba who is undefeated going 3 for 3. ML is 9/2.

@Midnight1

 Yes! No doubt that's my concern but then again it's a concern for not only commandment but the whole 29 horse field.

As we all know when the field is as crowded as it is in the Derby that lots and I mean Lots of luck and array of things need to go your way especially if and when you rely on your horse your trailing and know his racing style up front ahead of you and you wait for him  to make his move for you to make your move and if he fails to do so you only hope that your allowed enough time to execute your plan B or your more than likely to be toast and find yourself in a very undesirable position.

Up front setting the pace or stalking with a come from behind horse the Kentucky Derby field at Churchill is grueling and unlike a field of ten or less horses, even the best horse with the best Jockey can and more often than not find themselves in a very challenging scenario that may be to tough to overcome opening a longshot opportunity.

After all Midnight1, these horses have earned the right to be there with their respected winnings/earnings and all that I can hope for is that in the end that I'm holding a winning ticket. 

Commandment Going seven wide to win Florida does show and tell me that this horse has got some heavy duty stamina and determination......should be an awesome race!! 

Once again Midnight1 and to all on this thread....thanks for all the insights and your respected analysis.

@vetdrm

Here’s a story about Giacomo, i believe it was 2005. I was with my grandmother at Horsemen’s Park in Omaha and she played him up top because of a dream she said she had about a gray horse. Her bet was a $1 tri 10-18-all. Paid like 60k, I’ll never forget that. 

Used to own a few thoroughbreds back in the day through a partnership, we ran at Woodbine. Now I just follow the bloodlines of the horses I used to own. A few little tidbits,

  Into Mischief the worlds leading sire, is looking for his record 4th winner of the derby. He has 3 sons running in the derby this year, Renegade, Commandment, and Potente. All 3 of these horses merit strong consideration. There is also a grandson of Into Mischief running, That's Intrepido, he's a son of Maximus Mischief..

There have been 12 "Sons of Derby Winners". The last time a son of derby winner won was 1996 (Grindstone the son of Unbridled who won in 1990). This year Litmus Test fits the bill being a son, from the first crop of Nyquist (Won the derby in 2016). Although rare, this angle has produced 12 winners.. Litmus Test is the ONLY horse in the field who qualifies under this angle.

HORSES with long shot pedigree,

Danon Bourbon, Great White, Golden Tempo, + Albus

I like quite a few horses and , will be wagering on a few different angles. So far I like 

1,6,7,12,14,15,18,19,21...

@mr_armchair_qb

 Good point regarding Into Mischief. I noticed he has a couple of kids racing on the card like #2 Sovereign Law in the 2nd, #10 Vibe in the 3rd, #2 Cornucopia & #7 Imagination in the 10th & #1 Renegade, #6 Commandment, #14 Potente in the Derby.

Going to play a ex/tri box 1-6-14 for $12 with his kids just for shits & giggles.  

Today is the 32nd birthday for the longest living Derby Winner. Know who?

see below

SILVER CHARM

I mentioned the size of #7 Danon Bourbon but at 17.5 hands I think #20 Great White is bigger.

I read the cheapest seat at the Derby was $864 but I just checked StubHub & they have seats for $151 which sounds like a good deal since General Admission is $150. Definitely need a place to plop down for a long day. 

Gotta check out the bangs on #9 The Puma's forehead. It's like a little kid's haircut. And you better believe the barns will have these horses on the card with ribbons throughout their manes. They actually have a "Turnout" trophy that goes to the groom for their excellent work. When I first started playing the ponies at Belmont, an old feller told me the barns really make their horse look great so they plan to have a beautiful picture with the horse in the winners circle.

It's rare during the workweek to see a horse really dolled up back then so there weren't many to play. First play, they win; second play, they win. So you start thinking this is too easy & how come no one else knows about this? So I shared the info with my budies.

Dolled up horses went on to lost 11 in a row. It's like the Honk for Donk myth I shared about him winning the last race on cards. He hasn't done this in months & I've stopped sharing the plays. However, for $6 with a WPS play I get notified by TwinSpires when Donk has a horse racing. I check if it's the last race & if so, I make the $6 play because if it came in & I didn't play it........BOOM  

@Midnight1

Today is the 32nd birthday for the longest living Derby Winner. Know who?

I was going to say grindstone but I believe he passed a few years back if I'm not mistaken correct?

#7 Banon Bourbon was schooled for 20 minutes in the paddock this morning.

Most of these colts have never seen a crowd like they will Saturday. The roar of the crowd before the start & down the stretch could unnerve anyone of these guys. 

A colt with just 2 starts hasn't won the Derby since 1883. That doesn't bode well for #15 ENERGING MARKET.

#22 Ocelli is a 6 start maiden.

9 of the 14 races are stakes with real nice purses. I noted which jocks/trainers are loaded for bear on this card. I wonder if Baffert wants to prove something after his 3 year suspension because he has 9 going on the card. Then you have the small trainers who have sent the best they have in their barns & hope they can say they had a stakes winner on the Derby card of 26. There are 8 jocks with just have 1 mount & Florent Geroux has just #6 Crude Velocity in the 8th race. He looks to run better with added distance, so the mile shouldn't be too taxing  on him. He'll have to catch #1 Englishman.

Yesterday's works were over a wet track. Some trainers may not have been to happy about that. 

Watched the Tampa Bay Derby again where Javier on The Puma caught Irad on Further Ado. Javier had to grab hold of The Puma about 50 yards from the wire to straighten him out & I think he may have surprised Irad on the outside when Irad thought he was home free. The Puma was full of run at the wire.