Some nice cards today. Louisville is perfect weather today and same with Prairie Meadow’s big state bred day. I spent a lot of time and think I found a few big bombs. Good luck!
Churchill Downs
Race 1 #7 What a Country 8-1 ml Hasn’t won this year yet but seems to be in good form with four 2nds. Trainer gave him a try on turf last out just to make sure he wasn’t a turf horse and he hated it. That bad race helps with decent odds today vs this marginal looking 25k field.
Race 2 #3 Sparkle of Hope 5/2 ml is a 1 for 18 mare I normally wouldn’t play. The other favs in here don’t look like 6 furlong sprinters. Not a ton of zip signed on so she should stalk and pounce for the W
Race 3 #6 Doctor Nash 8-1 ml does his best work at CD and raced ok last out at Colonial off a 8 month break. Drops in for a tag and should be right there in the end in a competitive looking race
Race 4 #4 Woodcourt 5-1 ml moved to Walsh barn after some 2yr old maiden races and an ambitious try in the Gr II Saratoga Special. Walsh put him in a turf sprint stake last out and he was ok and now stretches out to a mile and this may be what he wants.
Race 5 #5 Thorney 12-1 ml 2 yr old first timer for McPeek and has many works and was a pretty expensive purchase last year. Have a good feeling she is a real runner and will like the mile trip
Race 6 #6 Carnivore 6-1 ml is another 1 for 25 horse I normally wouldn’t bet but he does his best work in claiming races, at CD, and at this distance. This is a good spot for him to get lifetime W number two.
Race 7 #9 Four Dawn 6-1 ml has responded well to being claimed in Nov and the long break she got after. A super race last out and has had almost two months to get ready again with steady breezes.
Race 8 #8 Desert Duke 8-1 ml finally gets away from Webslinger and Wadsworth and looks to be a serious turf horse. Nothing too scary looking in this one and can take this with a late close.
Race 9 Ack Ack Gr III BC Win and Your In #4 Stage Raider 6-1 ml put it all together in last race after a very disappointing few years. Always showed enough promise to be a big-time dirt miler but would throw in clunkers out of the blue. DeVaux has taken over and put some nice solid works into him since his career best last out and if he doesn’t bounce he will win this vs a very weak Gr III field.
Race 10 Lukas Classic Gr II #2 Clapton 6-1 ml is a improving 4 yr old colt and he has gotten good this year. Raced great in Gr 1 last out and should get a nice trip in this one as a few will be gunning to the front. If he takes to CD and can sit mid pack early he can close late and get there before the more heavily favored closers come calling. Best Bet
Race 11 #11 Royal Sandrin 15-1 ml Bomb! Comes to the Paulo Lobo barn off some early 2023 synthetic tries showing talent. Been working locally for his comeback and could be a player a big price.
Churchill/Laurel/Prairie Meadows Sat Sept 30 Price Plays
Laurel fast main and good turf today
r1 #5 Royal Seamstress 8-1 ml
r2 #9 Pounding Music 4-1 ml
r3 #3 Dolce Vita 5-1ml
r4 #10 Virologist 10-1 ml
r5 #5 Deeds of Love 7/2 ml
r6 #8 Bomb! Carmelina 15-1 ml Legit dirt 2 yr old tries turf and if she takes to it watch out
r7 #5 Best Bet! Mr Phil 4-1 ml super fast and coming in off a 2 month break off a bad sloppy try- fast track today and should be towards the front as no pace in here then hold off the closers late
r8 #2 Serifos 10-1 ml
r9 #1 Mailbu Beauth 10-1 ml
r 10 #12 Dancing Mischief 12-1 ml
r 11 #7 Infinite Series 12-1 ml
Prairie Meadows Found a few bombs I think First four races are QH races
Race 1 QH race #6 Lil Pete El Soruyo 3-1ml likes this 400 yard distance is always in the money vs state bred comp
Race 2 QH Race #8 Racing the Rails 7/2 ml was off slow in last as the fav against similar but should be the one to beat with a good break and you should get better odds.
Race 3 QH Race Bomb! #2 Sfs Alice Strikes 20-1 ml Has been off slow and distanced in last two vs open company off almost a year break…. but she has been great vs state breds at this track and has liked the distance- if she is right then she should be 2-1 and not 20-1
Race 4 QH Race #4 Ab Boogie 8-1 ml 2 yr old keeps improving and looks to be big time state bred player for years to come. Might be the last race you can get decent odds on him
Race 5 #7 Iowa Farmgirl 8-1 ml faces a very weak maiden field. If this firster has any talent, she should beat these. Works have been on the fast side and draws a top jock for a decent enough trainer
Race 6 #5 Capela 9/2 ml ran into a tough 7 length winner last out but is he shows improvement in third career start he should win this one for top connections.
Race 7 #7 Mollie’s Rocket 3-1 ml This classy 6 yr old gelding loves this distance and should get the perfect up front stalking trip Faded as fav at a route last time and now price should be better
Race 8 #2 Dawsons Storm 6-1 ml Was great in an open stake a month ago at 28-1 and has been coming late nicely the last 3 races. More than half this field wants the front so race shape looks good
Race 9 #5 Fit and Famous 6-1 ml Used up in fast pace last out at 3-1 but now stretches out and there isn’t any pace in here. Lone speed and gate to wire! Best Bet
Race 10 Bomb! #5 Sorcerer’s Girl 20-1ml Handled state bred fillies in debut, then was over matched in a open stake race, then took on boys last out and faded. Gets state bred filles again finally and fits perfect
Race 11 #2 Time Goes On 7/2 ml is very consistent 5 yr old gelding who is 12 for 18 in the money lifetime. Looks to be in top form for Von Hemel and has a month and a half of breezes for this race
Race 12 #6 Succession 8-1 ml has improved with almost every 10 lifetime starts. Pretty remarkable upward pattern. 8 length winner last out against softer and now tries the best Iowa bred 3 year olds out there. He has loved the stretch outs to 2 turns and with another career best he contends
Race 13 #10 Kayla 5-1 ml looks to trip out in this two turn route against a group that takes turns beating each other. The pace will be hot and this one loves to come late when the pace Is decent or fast.
Race 14 Bomb! #2 Fleet of Hoof 20-1 ml understandably bounced in last after just running a huge career figure 8 days earlier. Now has been given 21 days off and cuts back to 6 furlongs. If he can run anywhere close to what he did two back he wins this at long odds.
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